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Comment Re:The geothermal plant already exists [Re:MS Pow. (Score 1) 67

3. They're a reliable customer of power. That means that they will alway pay the bill, even if it is high. The grid operators and generation plant operators can charge them a huge premium for bulk power, then use that extra revenue to build more power plants.

I needed a good laugh, but that is exactly the opposite of how it actually works. They will be a discounted bulk price, or they'll build somewhere that will.

You're describing the situation in places where demand doesn't exceed capacity. I'm describing how any sane person running an electrical utility would bill things in a place where a company wants to put in a data center that exceeds available capacity. They'll hit them with capacity charges based on their usage during peak demand periods, or they'll make them pay for capacity improvements as part of the connection charge, or both.

And the "or they will go somewhere that will" part shouldn't really be a concern. They want to build there. The generating capacity isn't adequate. They either pay whatever fees are necessary to ensure the stability of the grid or they don't build. If that cause them to build somewhere else where adequate capacity exists, that's also fine.

Comment Paying for something that cannot be confirmed (Score 1) 78

"We never pay any-one Dane-geld,
No matter how trifling the cost;
For the end of that game is oppression and shame,
And the nation that plays it is lost!"

— Rudyard Kipling (1865-1936), Dane-geld, Stanzas 5-6

There is a good reason that law "law enforcement agencies around the world" advise again paying cyber criminals. And it isn't because law enforcement is dumb, or that they like seeing you getting your data stolen.

Comment Backwards from what they think? (Score 5, Insightful) 55

Given that big companies have already made it clear that they think AI will let them do the same work with fewer people, and given that using AI costs the company a lot in terms of compute resources, it seems intuitively obvious that the only reason execs would want to encourage more AI use is to find out what jobs can easily have their headcount reduced by more use of AI.

The people using the most tokens are the ones for whom more of their jobs can be most easily automated. This is not, IMO, a positive sign for the long-term survival of that particular job role. The only rational response is to use AI just enough to show a speed-up, assuming the speed-up actually happens at all, but not enough to be high up on the chart of AI users. Using it way more than that seems self-defeating.

Comment Re: Bubbye now, Digg. Nobody needs that. (Score 1) 29

I remember perhaps 20 years ago, some futurists were predicting that most of the time we'd interact with agents. That we'd each have our own personal assistant to curate and present us the information we need. This particular interview (sorry, I don't remember who it was) used the example that an agent would put together your daily newspaper specifically for you from multiple sources. I thought it seemed like kind of a stupid idea...

Comment Re:The geothermal plant already exists [Re:MS Pow. (Score 4, Interesting) 67

The summary says that this thing is supposed to be geothermal powered. So they just have the cart before the horse here. They need to set up the geothermal power plant first, then build the datacenter after the power plant is operational.

The geothermal plant already exists: https://www.globalelectricity....

Apparently, Microsoft was proposing to build the data center there and tap into the existing geothermal power, not build new geothermal power (the summary was a little confusing about that).

Yeah, that was confusing. But Kenya's president is almost certainly wrong. Here's why:

1. It is not numerically correct, assuming the numbers in the summary are accurate. The country has a surplus adequate to power the data center at somewhere around half to three-quarters capacity even at peak power use, and probably at full capacity for 99 days out of 100. So even if they built it at full capacity right off the bat and did nothing else, you'd still only lose power to a small fraction of Kenya occasionally.

2. They're not building it at full capacity. They're building a small data center at first, then building it up over time as more generating capacity comes online.

3. They're a reliable customer of power. That means that they will alway pay the bill, even if it is high. The grid operators and generation plant operators can charge them a huge premium for bulk power, then use that extra revenue to build more power plants. By the time the data center is running at full capacity, they could have more than enough power to power it.

4. Even if that extra investment in production doesn't happen, they can just refuse to provide the additional power from the grid. I'm sure Microsoft knows how to do solar + storage by now, and if not, they can pay someone to do it for them who does. Or they can build their own geothermal plant right next to the existing one. Or they can do any number of other things to produce power, like installing an SMR.

5. Nothing inherently prevents them from reducing power usage during peak load periods. Service will get slower, but should gracefully degrade, assuming they're doing it right. Nobody will lose power, realistically speaking.

It is unfortunate that so many people look at these data centers and the current worst-case state of resource availability and conclude wrongly that they are infeasible, but this is a common mistake made by planners, legislators, and members of the general public. They fail to account for how the existence of the data center with its need for resources will trigger the production of facilities to exploit previously unusable resources and make them available, and they fail to recognize that in a true power emergency, they can just turn 90% of it off and shift the load to other data centers.

But the reality of the matter is that nobody is going to build a gigawatt of additional power capacity in Kenya unless the government or some private company that needs power pays them to do it. They already have a 23 to 30% surplus compared with their worst-case power consumption. That means that adding more production will just drive power prices down, so they'll get less money for the power they produce.

But as soon as someone like Microsoft starts needing enough power to pull those margins down, suddenly additional capacity becomes economically feasible, and you'll see either existing power companies expanding or new power companies entering the market. And the existence of an all-but-guaranteed higher future demand is the key to making that happen. Without the data center being approved, that motive to expand does not exist, and the grid will likely stay at or near its currently levels unless the government forces the hand of the market by paying someone to build more generating capacity.

Comment Re:Toystop (Score 1) 33

Basically the same point I raised in an earlier discussion of this... What to call this? A leveraged buyout of the imagination?

However it makes about as much sense as most merger shenanigans and I would approve if at least one of the side effects was that eBay disappeared.

But I want to find a recursive joke somewhere around here... Something about eBay auctions/sales of merger/acquisitions/divestitures?

User Journal

Journal Journal: More about the evil corporate cancer Facebook

Chaos Monkeys by Antonio Garcia Martinez is intellectually agile, engaging, and annoying. Mostly his personal story about a couple of years working for Facebook, but also quite revealing about what is wrong there and how Facebook is making the world a worse place, not better.

Comment Re:Are the wealthy actually receiving benefits? (Score 1) 178

Why give pesky humans a paycheck and benefits to dig a ditch when an AI-enabled machine can do it without needing a lunchbreak or bathroom break or needing a holiday off?

Why dig a ditch at all if there are no humans around to receive the benefits of it? I REALLY don't think anyone fully thought this through. Let's say that I and a few others receive the full benefits of AI. I don't even like those others, I prefer different types of people... and yet they no longer exist. They had no money for food and shelter and just died off. So I go down to the dance club to meet new people, but there is nobody there. They all died from exposure and starvation.

So I go home and turn on the TV... but all I see is static. There is nobody to make new shows or provide the news. There are no more sports teams to watch. It is just me, 20 thousand other people like me, and none of us like each other and none of want to or are capable of creating music, fine art, etc.

I have spent my entire life thinking other people are Hell... but I found out, too late, that other people make heaven possible.

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