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Comment The Conspiracy Theory Detector (Score 1) 445

You're way in over your head and you don't even know it.


Looks like they're removing stuff now.

What, every single group that does temperature reconstructions is "removing stuff" and just happen to end up with the exact same answer? That's one hell of a conspiracy theory! It's item 4 on the conspiracy theory detector.

In my humble opinion, his successor is lying a lot more. That's why every month this year has been a "record."

So, nothing to do with the El Nino? That's item 10 on the conspiracy theory detector.

Even featured here on slashdot it's so suspicious,

That one's off the chart.

This site has actual photos of newspaper articles.

But isn't discussing global temperatures so is not really relevant to our discussion...

Those stubborn facts again-

Well, yeah :)

Yet another analysis:

Also not discussing global temperatures...

I understand you're not a scientist. However for God sakes, look at the data! Go into the distant past to present! Analyze it! Come up with a theory!

We've already got one, and as I've shown, the data fits quite well!

Another clue is they want to put people in jail that disagree with man made GW.

Yes. Clue #7

What's very frustrating to me is I've predicted this for 20 years that their models wouldn't hold up

Yes. That's got to be frustrating given how well they have!

Wonder why I haven't been responding? I

Because you're losing our bet so badly and because of how cocky and condescending you were when you entered it and because you're not particularly fond of the taste of crow?

Comment Re:GPS Pilot, right-wing wanker (Score 1) 445

we're really returning to where we were about 1000 years ago.

We've blown past where we were even 6000 years ago at the peak of the current inter-glacial. And FAST! It's all occurred since industrialization.

There is the fact that the 1930s was the hottest decade of the 20th century

Not even close.

Did you look at their last graph from 1880 on? That doesn't line up with the CO2 levels worth a damn.

The cyclical variations from PDO/ENSO/etc on top of the secular warming from CO2 explain each peak and valley in the temperature record quite well. It is naive to think that you would have a monotonic rise in temperatures that matched the monotonic rise in CO2. This is certainly not what the models show.

Here's a neat tool you can use to explore this. Set CO2 to 2.4 and PDO to 0.13 and you already have a pretty good match to the temperature record.

Comment Re:modus operandi doesnt seem to make any sense. (Score 1) 61

There is much to like about the Trump campaign if you are Russian.

Trump has promised to look into lifting the sanctions that the U.S. has imposed against Russia for its military incursions in Ukraine.

The Trump campaign worked behind the scenes to make sure the new Republican platform won’t call for giving weapons to Ukraine to fight Russian and rebel forces, contradicting the view of almost all Republican foreign policy leaders in Washington.

He questioned whether the U.S. would defend its NATO allies in the event of a Russian attack and claimed that the alliance is “obsolete.”

An isolationist America would pose less of a threat to Russia’s ambitions in Europe and the Middle East.

On top of this, Putin likely holds a grudge against Clinton for this.

Comment Re:This is the year of the extreme climate (Score 1) 412

From the records that we all have access to it's clear CO2 is a symptom and not the cause. You always see an incresae in heat before the CO2 rises.

Wow. It must be getting really hot because atmospheric CO2 levels have shot through the roof ever since the industrial revolution. I wonder why?

Even a high school student, no even an elementary school student can conclude CO2 doesn't cause warming.

Errr. Yes, but radiative physics.

By the way, If every month this year has been the hottest in recorded history then you must be starting to doubt your chances at winning our bet. Earlier this year you had said: "I figured when I pointed out that 2015 was a high water mark, you'd realize it would be very close to a fools bet to bet this year will be warmer than 2015. You either have no clue what you're doing (one might say you drank too much of the cool aid) or I have a feeling you think you know something I don't."

Well, I'm not a big fan of cool aid.

Comment Climate data has been available for a decade... (Score 1) 64

The code is available here. Papers here. NASA uses station data compiled by NOAA GHCN v3 (meteorological stations), ERSST v4 (ocean areas), and SCAR (Antarctic stations),

According to the Director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies "Anyone can download it, run it for themselves and get the answer before we update our website every month."

Comment Re:Wow! Let's give them more money! (Score 1) 195

Here's hoping! Maybe we can get something sustainable in my lifetime.

The sooner the better! I have some more bad news on our bet. Last month was the hottest July on record. In fact, every month this year has set a record. Take a look at the current peak compared to the previous one in 2010. We've had about 0.25C warming just over the last 6 years!

You were quite confident that 2016 would be cooler than 2015. Any thoughts on why things are turning out so much different than you had anticipated?

Comment Re:Foolish for another reason. (Score 1) 303

Betting that any given year will be hotter or colder than any other given particular year is stupid, there's too much chance for something else to go wrong

2008 was a La Nina year, so it was already below average. Because of global warming, any year after 2008, regardless of annual variability, was bound to be warmer tan 2008. Even the strong La Nina in 2011 was warmer than 2008.. Pick any La Nina year where the temps are well below average and you'll notice that the temps never fall that low again.

The bet was hedged by a climate scientist who was willing to give 5 to 1 odds that 2015 would not be cooler than 2008. He would have had to be quite confident to give those odds and it is not luck that he won.

if you're really looking to test the climate change bit, would have been something like "The 10 year period starting in January 2008 will be, on average, warmer than the 10 year period starting January 1998

Fair point. That is even more certain to show warming. Here is the 10 year running mean since 1998.

Comment Re:winner betted against too (Score 1) 303

He went to climate scientist James Annan to hedge his bet. Annan was willing to give odds of 5 to 1 against 2015 being cooler than 2008. So while the economist put only his reputation on the line, the scientist was extremely confident, and rightly so.

So what does the scientist know that the advisers to the GWPF don't (but probably ought to considering that the think tank they advise has "global warming" in the title)?

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