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Comment Re:Be funny if they skipped the flyby (Score 1) 8

That's an interesting idea. What do they gain from doing a flight around the moon? They get to test the spacecraft in that mission profile, but they have already landed things on the moon so stuff like the comms and navigation is already sorted out. They have a space station so have experience with long duration missions, and the moon is only medium duration.

Artemis didn't test separation and docking in lunar orbit, but Apollo 10 did. The Chinese can already do the docking reliably for their space station.

These days it would make sense to do a fully automated landing and return to lunar orbit first. Apollo 11 was the first landing of the LM because they couldn't do it automated at the time. But if you are in a hurry to get there, going for a crewed landing is certainly an option now.

In any case, they need to fly some more hardware first, even if only in Earth orbit.

Comment Re:Technobabble translation... (Score 1) 56

There's also been some developments in AI that means that the demand may level off a bit. Google said yesterday that they can now train AI with servers distributed over the globe. If one region has cheap renewable electricity right now, they can move more of it there. So the need to build more capacity and more storage is reduced as well.

There are some similar developments coming from Chinese companies too, particularly around making AI more efficient.

Hopefully by the end of the year we will be seeing reduced prices, and maybe a flood of used storage from failed AI startups.

Comment Re:Visual Basic #7 (Score 1) 33

I miss the instant gratification of those desktop IDE's. It's hard to unsee it as dev tooling grows more bloated and indirect over time.

Maybe Cherokee Nation Will Return. Nobody has mathematically proven the bloat must be in there. I suspect it's resume buzzword crack. YAGNI still means something. Every "desktop IDE's can't do X" claim I've encountered has been debunked. (Not claiming they have it, only that the Laws of the Universe don't forbid it.)

Comment Any profitable app needs to be a service (Score 1) 35

Because without recurring revenue you're not going to be able to make enough money to keep your software business afloat. I watched several software companies in the 90s and early 2000s go tits up because they just sold their software and everybody bought it and it worked and it was fine and it was great but nobody ever bought more software because the software they had was fine and great so the company eventually sold to everyone who could buy and they went out of business.

If you're going to run a service you need to have all the infrastructure that goes with that and that's where the cost is and always has been. Not the building of the app any schlub has been able to do that for ages. It's building out and maintaining the back end while getting enough customers or monetizable users.

Comment You don't need excuses anymore (Score 4, Insightful) 39

Trump just created a 1.7 billion dollar slush fund for him and his buddies. You don't need to excuse anything. The news media is 90% billionaire owned and they just won't cover it when all this shit's going on. A large percentage of voters are either low information or bad information voters and a little voter suppression at the county level takes care of the rest.

Barring a miracle we're going to be a Russian style dictatorship in 10 years and a techno feudal hellscape in 20 or 30.

But at least trans kids can't play sports right? Is it the culture War fun?

Comment Especially right before a midterm election (Score 5, Insightful) 39

What pisses me off is that if the press actually talked about the recession we are in, and it is a recession if you take out the ridiculous amounts of money spent on AI slop we are in a deep recession, then people would wake up and poll numbers would collapse and while the current Republican party in charge of everything wouldn't do anything to help they would at least stop making things substantially worse.

But because they control the media now, literally 90% of all media is owned by billionaires and if you're paying attention you are really seeing them exercising that power fully for the first time ever, well it's simply not allowed to talk about it.

But what's frustrating is people can see it happening but because the economy is a large complex thing it hasn't hit them personally yet and there's a core of about 20% who it probably never will with another 20% who will probably escape the worst of it and because of all that without someone explicitly telling them the state of the economy they just blitheringly and blissfully go about their lives thinking everything is fine and if you're struggling it's because of some moral failure or another...

This is why people call journalists the 4th estate and why it's such a huge problem that they are now completely under the control of billionaires. In the past what would stop that is journalists could do muckraking to make money and then on the side real journalism but the billionaires figured that out so if you're a muckraking journalist they will sue you into Oblivion like they did Gawker.

People really don't realize the importance of the institution of journalism or what journalism actually is. To be blunt I only know because I took some courses in high school along with some mid-level college history courses.

Comment Also he's not afraid of competition (Score 1) 56

Ordinarily with prices this high somebody would take the plunge. I would bet money that in 10 or 15 years we're going to find out they were colluding. It'll take that long for the Democrats to put the regulatory apparatus back in place assuming we aren't knee deep in the El Naranja's third term.

So basically I suspect the memory producers have all agreed not to increase production and there's no way a new player could enter the market because with the complete lack of antitrust law enforcement the memory manufacturers would just drop their prices and run the newbie out of business.

This is exactly what happened with LCD panel prices until, as usual a democrat, stepped in and enforced the law so that the trusts were broken up and prices immediately plummeted.

Folks need to understand the bureaucrats are more than just the annoying guy at the DMV. They're the guys that make it so that large corporations can't manipulate markets to screw you over. Or they used to be anyway. Now they're just unemployed.

Comment Re:The real killer for Visio (Score 1) 50

You didn't read the whole post: "Set up your TV to simply be a monitor and use a cheap little computer as an HTPC".

No we did read it. We just ignored it for the rubbish suggestion it is. I know it will shock many here on Slashdot but generally people don't want to live lives with an overly complex array of custom intermingled gadgets in the living room. They want to push a button on a remote that auto plays Netflix from the last episode watched, and real complex techheads in the public will push a second button to turn on a soundbar connected via a single cable to the TV.

People don't even have AVRs and 7.1 surround sound anymore let alone fuck around with a turning their TVs into monitors for HTPCs.

Comment Re:That kind of thinking brings in new players.. (Score 1) 56

Except the barrier to entry is too high. It would be fun if someone could manage to disrupt the memory consortium.

The Chinese are massively rising in the ranks right now. Major PC vendors are currently qualifying CXMT's RAM offerings. But the problem is you're thinking on the wrong time scale. A bubble like this doesn't bring in new players, and indeed the Chinese new players who are entering the market right now actually simply got really lucky as they started building their fabs years ago, before AI was shoved down our throats.

Comment Re:Covid broke everything (Score 1) 56

Sorry but that's a load of crap for many reasons.
a) JIT supply chains have been a focus for nearly a century now. COVID changed absolutely nothing and prior to COVID we have also had massive cost demand swings in various industries including tech due to supply and demand disruption.
b) There's very little JIT going on here. JIT is something that affects you in months. The fact that we have had computers delivered at reasonable prices many months after part costs shot up, and pre-builds only really started being price affected early this year shows the industry actually has quite a lot of stored inventory.
b) Even if companies wanted to build fabs now to address this, it's just not possible. These things take years to build, and equally as long to plan. You can't just magic them into existence. Who in their right mind would start a 5 year $bn project to supply a bubble when the payback may not be realised (OpenAI cancelled Stargate a month ago, along with it backed out of a purchase agreement that is equivalent of 40% of SK Hynix supply in late 2026/27). You'd be mad to build anything right now to try and capture the bubble.

There's nothing wrong with the free market here. This is very much the free market working. It's just you have an idealised view that supply and demand can correct each other in real time, when the reality is for many markets the supply side is highly inflexible.

Comment Re:Cartel (Score 1) 56

don't expect them to add capacity because if they all agree not to they make more money

While they were indeed colluding, that's not the issue here. The issue is that largely many people think that AI expansion now is a bubble. RAM prices skyrocketed due to demand that may ultimately not be fully realised. Just look at SK Hynix - they just had a massive order cancelled because OpenAI won't proceed with Stargate.

It takes many years to build a new fab. It's not the kind of activity you do during the bubble. It's the kind of activity you hope you did before the unpredictable bubble arrives. There's other parts of the industry affected by AI which are not know for price fixing or collusion who are very much taking the same approach.

Comment Re:Technobabble translation... (Score 4, Interesting) 56

No, I suspect it's got more to do with short-term profits and his overall compensation, given he probably wouldn't still be the CEO by the time any new factories were brought online.

Corporate boards typically only reward short-term thinking.

No not at all. Firstly he's been the CEO of Seagate for a decade and there's no indicating that he'll step down in 3 years. On the flip side we have already seen major cracks in the AI industry.
1. OpenAI cancelled a huge order with SK Hynix when they aborted the Stargate datacentre. - A good sign that the industry is cracking under it's overpromises.
2. Wall Street has actively created indices to allow hedge funds explicitly to invest in companies *NOT* in the AI space. - A good sign that the finance industry thinks AI will crash.
3. Even with current prices, fabs takes years to build and many many years more to make an ROI. This is not a decision you make in the wake of a 1-2 year bubble. It's the kind of decision you make when you're sure of demand 10 years from now.

Anyone here thinking long term will not be building anything either. Building something in a bubble that won't be completed until after the bubble pops is the kind of reckless investment that would actually get a CEO to no longer be in their position a few years from now.

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