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Comment Re:So what (Score 1) 131

If we step outside just books for a moment, you're talking about destroying all of Van Gogh's paintings as well as paintings in all kinds of experimental forms like pointilism and fauvism, The Thinker, by Rodin, and frankly a huge assortment of archeological works in museums. If we do want to look at books, you would destroy the Great Gatsby and Moby Dick without a care.

These various works are, or were rare and were, at one point, widely considered to be crap. These days, all of thee things are quite valuable. Original copies of Moby Dick and the Great Gatsby that are in good shape with original dust jackets, etc. are worth tens to hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Comment Re:So what (Score 1) 131

I think the problem here is that you seem to be saying that the courts/law are insisting that the books must be destroyed for it to not be infringement, but that's not quite what happened. The court did use the fact that the scanning was destructive as an argument, but it wasn't required. In a common law system, it is problematic that it does imply a new rule. This mostly comes down to a question of nuance.

Comment Re:yeah? (Score 1) 260

That raises the question. Is a "good" university one that takes anyone, regardless of ability, and raises their education level, or is it one that takes in the elite so it can output the elite? Is the purpose personal enlightenment of the students, producing good workers for employers, a mix? To simplify, what makes a good teacher? One who only picks the best and brightest, then gets showered with credit for the accolades their students receive? Is it all about an initial filtering followed by continuous filtering and ranking of people? Is education about ascertaining where people fall on some scale of their innate, immutable characteristics? Or is there some semblance of an idea that education is a process by which people can learn and improve?

Comment Re:I think it may be a good idea... (Score 1) 260

So true. I'm certain most parents would faint, but I allowed my son and his friends to play street Hockey.... in the street. Unsupervised. I'd not be far away, just found something to work on in the garage, but they were left alone. Wife wanted more "Adult presence". I said "no, because this is more than street hockey".

So... right outside? Like, not even traveling beyond audible range to play it on say a paved school court or a parking lot or something?

Comment Re:Wind always has significant maintenance costs (Score 1) 274

Renewables are increasing becoming delayed through court actions just like nuclear. We’ve had a wind project off of Massachusetts delayed over a decade. Some of it is NIMBY. Some of it is environmentalist, a local solar project prevented because it would destroy habitat belonging to some endangered critter.

And yet, if you can put up 10% of that project, you get 10% of the power. For solar, you can put it on the roof of existing structures, etc. That's the versatility I was talking about. Plus, when you do get past a regulatory hurdle, the physical construction is simple and fast. "First light" happens instantly if you hook cables to the panel during daytime.

The point is building nuclear and renewables displaces fossil fuel faster.

That assumes that somehow the building of each happens in a vacuum completely unaffected by the other. The reality is that, while it may not be a zero sum game, both have opportunity cost and they compete in that arena.

They can consume some of our store nuclear waste as fuel. That would be an important cleanup, avoid long term storage expenses we still have not figured out.

For some reactors, they can consume some of the nuclear waste as fuel in cycles that are unproven economically. That's a lot of ifs for what is known to be a marginal reduction in the actual problem. Of course, once again, I don't actually view the waste problem as being the biggest con in nuclear power.

As we increase electrification of our economy and daily lives we are going to have increasing demand. Southern california is already struggling to meet current demand. Brownouts increasingly common during the summer. If the state achieved its goal of mandating EVs things would get far worse wrt demand.

Increasing demand for electricity, sure, but reducing demand for power. When you consider primary power consumption, electrification in transport and heating across residential, commercial, and industrial sectors presents the possibility of cutting the non-electrical portion of it in half or more. The real world mileage of a modern BEV including environmenttal controls is about 3 miles per kwh. Average household mileage is about 55 miles per day, so about 18.333 kWh. The average household currently uses about 30 kWh per day. So we're talking about an approximate 61% increase in household power usage but, across the board with other transportation sectors (excluding shipping and long range air transportation for now) and heat pumps, etc. total electrification would increase electric demand by about 35%. So, sure, we would need more electricity. Of course, we would also need a lot less primary power. That 35% increase is just not some insurmountable goal though. Also, the electrification push should also come with a push for more efficient, intelligent (and not in the "my refrigerator has an app so I can see if the light is one" way), grid aware appliances.

Reality is that EV adoption will not be as fast as California wants. And renewable plant buildouts will not be as fast as advocates hope. And battery and other storage solutions will bot appear as fast as advocates desire. And this means we will just continue building more natural gas plants to backup renewables. We should be build nuclear, demand is going to be increasing for decades.

The reality is that the US is at about 25% renewable power. The world is at about 34%. Europe is on the threshhold of 50%. At its current, relatively slow growth rates, the US will reach 100% renewable around 2038, and the 135% required for near total electrification in around 2044, and that's without any major technology leaps, like average solar panels doubling in efficiency to match the best lab ones we have now. If the US actually catches up to the EU rate, it would hit the 135% mark in 2038. If it caught up to China, it would be around 2033. So, the big problem for nuclear power is that, for any nuclear project starting now, there is a very high chance that the market for its power would be completely replaced by renewables when it's finished.

Not quite, newer reactor designs are far safer. Some failure scenarios of the past no longer possible.

I addressed and acknowledged that, but nevertheless, solar panels or wind turbines simply don't create those kinds of problems in the first place. They don't have to have special measures to prevent them from spontaneously melting deep into the ground, etc. Factors like the extremely high specific power involved, the use of inherently dangerous and corrosive substances (radioactive and nonradioactive), the pressures involved, even the possibility of failure of the aforementioned safety measures all introduce a domain of things that go wrong that can't happen with renewables.

Now, as I said, those are not my main concern. The economics and logistics are. I do need to point out that those other concerns are not imaginary, though.

Negligent operations that (1) can be addressed by regulation and oversight...

But one of the premises of SMRs and other modern nuclear attempts is that those troublesome regulations and paralyzing oversight can be removed and that is desirable and necessary for the assembly line production method to thrive. We won't bother with talking about the fact that it's already a massive failure if we're talking about needing to airlift in equipment to prevent a disaster since we've already accepted that we're talking about newer designs and those should, in theory, not fail catastrophically (well..., I'll get into that), if power/cooling is lost and they are simply abandoned rather than a mad scramble to stop the problem. But, we do have to get into exactly what catastrophic failure is and isn't. The newer designs are more likely to protect the public. But, if these events do happen, it's still a catastrophe, just more of an economic one with a completely unrecoverable reactor. Not to mention that they are often still effectively permanent disaster areas. Ones that are safely contained inside a containment building, but perfectly safe as long as it is never opened.

Again, we are talking about complementing renewables, not displacing them. The SMRs would still be able to provide backup when renewables are not operational. We have not really solved the storage problem. We are still building natural gas plants. SMRs could displace these gas plants.

That didn't really have anything to do with what I said about economies of scale. The point was that the SMR logic doesn't make any sense. As you reduce the size of the reactor, the power produced scales down faster than the amount of other stuff you need to operate the plant. So SMRs are more expensive per unit of power.

The 1960s/70s Green movement, including greenpeace pretty much lumped in nuclear power with nuclear weapons. Greenpeace vigorously opposed it all.

Sure. Not disputing that. But the actual amount of effort they spend, and have spent on nuclear power is just a fraction of their total activities.

And I expect we will continue building natural gas plants as renewables and storage tech do not deliver as hoped, as demand massively increases as we increasingly electrify.

The data simply don't seem to be pointing that way, although I suppose it depends on what "we" means there. If you mean the whole world, then it really doesn't look that way. Basically, most of the nuclear projects right now are experimental. People are waiting to see how they turn out before they even start on other projects. We are looking at a decade plus before any subsequent projects are completed and most other projects are still going to wait to see how those ones do. By the time that happens, there simply isn't going to be any non-niche market for nuclear plants. People will wonder why they would be needed at all when wind and solar provide the vast majority of electrical power already. Without some really amazing breakthrough, nuclear just doesn't make it because slow and steady only wins the race when the faster racer takes a nap under a tree.

Comment Re:Wind always has significant maintenance costs (Score 1) 274

Nuclear does not displace renewables. Nuclear displaces fossil fuels. When we move away from nuclear we merely end up prolonging the use of fossil fuels.

Still not really the point. If by to "move away from nuclear" you mean closing existing plants early, you might have a point. However if you just mean not building new ones that it really seems like you do not. New renewables go up fast, and they are operational essentially immediately. A nuclear plant produces no power until after "first light" when it is 100% complete. A 10% complete wind or solar farm produces 10% of the power. If you only complete 70% of it then have to stop for a decade, the farm produces 70% for that decade.

Carbon neutral fuels are interesting, although I tend to think of aviation fuel first. Special cases.

Synthetic jet fuels would be a parallel goal of course. Ideally as much of aviation as possible would be swapped with electric. Using swappable metal-air primary batteries (for example aluminum-air) and and efficient flying V plane designs (which have the added advantage that they naturally have enough volume relative to weight capacity that the airlines simply can't stuff people in like sardines) has the potential to make 80% of plane routes all electric (and still just as fast as current commercial airliners). The remaining 20% would be routes that require higher altitude flights to avoid turbulence over certain mountain ranges or certain storm patterns.

The contrast between nuclear and coal is on point, because the US has an outstanding safety record. Coal has literally released more radiation in the USA. That's a point that most people are unaware of...

I am pretty sure pretty much everyone in this discussion is aware of it though. In any case, it is a serious indictment of fossil coal (not a problem for the synthetic stuff I mentioned though, since the only elements in it would be carbon and any radioactive carbon in it would have come from the atmosphere to start with anyway), but coal wasn't really a consideration in this discussion in the first place. I will certainly concede that "it's not as bad as coal" is actually a good argument when we already have coal under consideration. So, coal being a bad idea seems like something we can all agree on.

Regardless of Hollywood context though, it's pretty much undeniable that what the original poster said about the catastrophic nature of something going wrong is correct. There is, in fact 880 tons of what they are calling corium barely kept cool by constant pumping of water underground in Fukushima right now. The place needs something like 50 megaWatts to pump and filter the water, ventilate and maintain negative internal air pressures, oh and maintain a massive zone of frozen ground! They have only just now started removing the spent fuel rods that weren't even involved in the meltdown. They can't even realistically start on the actual cleanup until what they now say will be 2037 (that is likely to be pushed back) and that job is not expected to be completed for a century.

Given that sort of thing, I think it is reasonable for someone to point out that, when a wind turbine goes wrong, the consequences aren't quite so massive or require so much trouble to clean up.

Now, some of the new designs do indeed deal with some of those problems. Like the whole thing with needing constant power to avoid a catastrophic failure, or the pooling of spent fuel into a critical mass. That's definitely a good thing if any get built, but it doesn't remove the concerns for people who have been told repeatedly that this sort of thing literally can't happen again before it happens again.

Personally, at this point, any such concerns are on the back burner for me. I think the safety questions and the waste disposal problems that have lingered for nearly a century at this point are frustrating, but they are simply not showstoppers for me. My problems with nuclear power focus primarily on speed and agility and nuclear power is not fast or agile. Renewables quite simply seem to be faster and more versatile, not to mention, until someone proves otherwise, cheaper.

As for SMRs specifically, my concerns boil down to economies of scale and essentially the square cube law. Everything suggests that SMRs produce less power per unit of pretty much everything involved. The reactor cores don't produce as much thermal energy for their size relative to larger cores in the first place. Then, while some things in the rest of the plant may scale down linearly with the size of the core, many things do not, so there needs to be more overall plant for the actual rate of power produced. Plus refueling schedules, etc., etc. Ultimately, they seem to mostly exist at this point to draw in investment. Most nuclear scientists whose careers aren't riding on this will tell you that SMRs aren't really practical except for niche applications.

Greenpeace founders now admit their anti-nuclear stance was an error.

That is a pretty loaded statement.. Let's not forget that the anti-nuclear stance of Greenpeace was mostly about nuclear weapons and nuclear weapons testing. Even the single guy, who isn't generally considered a "founder" (let alone multiple founders) by anyone other than himself (or all the people who quote him as the founder or multiple founders to promote nuclear power). Basically, there are 7 founders from the original committee and then 2 more who were involved in the Green Peace name and in directing the committee. Patrick Moore, the "founder" you're talking about wasn't on the committee, wasn't originally a director, didn't name the organization, and, even if he counted as a founder, would only be 10% of the founders. He was an early member and was on the first boat trip, and was an early leader and was there as the organization grew and renamed to Greenpeace. There is another claimant to being a founder, Paul Watson who formed a breakaway organization who never went pro-nuclear power. Ultimately, there are dozens of early members with similar bona fides to Moore who could make a roughly equal claim to him to be a founder. ) Moore was a guy who left Greenpeace after a dispute over chlorine policy (as a tipping point anyway, he was apparently pretty autocratic and didn't get along with people), then failed in his business and realized he could make a career out of selling himself to lobbying firms as a "Greenpeace founder". He started with promoting the clear cutting of old growth forests for logging companies. He expanded from there, eventually to nuclear power. He also moved on to climate change denial, including claims that it's actually good for the planet.

Basically he's a sellout who went into PR and "crisis management" who helps companies green wash. This is the guy who had an interview where he said you could drink a whole quart of glyphosate and "it wouldn't hurt you." to which the interviewer replied "We have some here. Do you want to drink it?" to which he replied "I'm not an idiot!" and stormed out. So, in other words, someone who literally can't swallow his own story.

Basically at present, nuclear is pretty much doomed to be relegated mostly to niches for the foreseeable future because there seem to be better alternatives.

Comment Re:Wind always has significant maintenance costs (Score 1) 274

"We should be moving away from coal" is a good argument. Absolutely we should be moving away from coal. But that argument is orthogonal to what we should be building for new power generation aside from that we shouldn't be building coal power (not fossil coal anyway, though there is an interesting argument for capturing CO2 from the ocean to make what would essentially be pure carbon synthetic coal to be used as carbon-neutral to slightly carbon-negative third or fourth tier power storage and burned for power with iron-oxides to avoid burning any atmosphere nitrogen and producing only pure CO2 as exhaust). Since the actual context was safety standards and how they needed to be tighter for nuclear because of how catastrophic things could be if things go wrong, then contrasting with coal power wasn't really appropriate.

Comment Re: FOR MAGA ONLY (Score 1) 274

Well, certainly you can't trust what he says or does. I was just pointing out that the claim that allies lined up behind the US and Israel against Iran was a bit odd because they didn't and Trump has been attacking them for it. He seems truly confused about the purpose of NATO and the obligations of its members.

Comment Re:FOR MAGA ONLY (Score 1) 274

Well,
my point is simple: I doubt this is happening in the relation between birds and windmills.
And: you can not proof it does.

I explicitly said that it almost certainly isn't happening because of the lack of selection pressure.

Natural selection means: there is a filter that prevents/reduces "unfit" members of the population to breed.

There is nothing particular unfit in a bird behaviour to crash into a windmill. And there is nothing particular more fit, to not crash into one. There is no "magic gene" that would favour one and kill the other one.

Once again, they don't kill remotely enough birds, so there is indeed no filter. We do not disagree on that. If, however, somehow it were an issue then there are numerous existing features, behavioral or otherwise, that would be selected for. I named a bunch of them. They already exist, natural selection would just make them more prevalent. None of them are magic, they mostly fall under existing avoidance instincts.

As I pointed out in previous posts, perhaps not to you: the amount of birds dying to OFFSHORE wind mills is basically zero. I did not check onshore wind mills, though.

Sure, although there is some possibility of some birds thinking they can roost on them.

I think you may have gotten it into your head that I'm disagreeing with more of what you're saying than I actually am. The only real disagreement here is about existing instincts and other genetically coded factors that would be concentrated by selection pressure if any real, significant selection pressure existed from wind turbines.

Comment Re:This didn't have to happen twice (Score 2) 162

Yes, it's crazy to believe that many police are not trained in the art of pretexting. If they use the right magic words, they can justify their actions.

As for videos, as an aside, the ones where they are yelling orders at a deaf person who isn't facing them are usually pretty heartbreaking. Just in general people apply some pretty impossible standards to people in police interactions. Quite aside from conflicting orders, basic human psychology tells you that in incredibly stressful situations like having a gun pointed at you, many people will lose the ability to comply. While it's not a pointed gun, watching videos of people walking across glass bridges over canyons shows this pretty clearly. When faced with the prospect of imminent death, even with a supposed safeguard such as "1000's have people have walked across this without falling off", or "if you just comply no one will shoot you" some people can handle it, but some people can not, they collapse, become incapable of responding to their surroundings, even freak out and violently react to people touching them sometimes. For some people, they're even fine one minute, they something breaks. Ultimately, the expectation of perfect compliance in a police action, especially with guns drawn is actually an unrealistic standard to apply across the board.

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