Renewables are increasing becoming delayed through court actions just like nuclear. We’ve had a wind project off of Massachusetts delayed over a decade. Some of it is NIMBY. Some of it is environmentalist, a local solar project prevented because it would destroy habitat belonging to some endangered critter.
And yet, if you can put up 10% of that project, you get 10% of the power. For solar, you can put it on the roof of existing structures, etc. That's the versatility I was talking about. Plus, when you do get past a regulatory hurdle, the physical construction is simple and fast. "First light" happens instantly if you hook cables to the panel during daytime.
The point is building nuclear and renewables displaces fossil fuel faster.
That assumes that somehow the building of each happens in a vacuum completely unaffected by the other. The reality is that, while it may not be a zero sum game, both have opportunity cost and they compete in that arena.
They can consume some of our store nuclear waste as fuel. That would be an important cleanup, avoid long term storage expenses we still have not figured out.
For some reactors, they can consume some of the nuclear waste as fuel in cycles that are unproven economically. That's a lot of ifs for what is known to be a marginal reduction in the actual problem. Of course, once again, I don't actually view the waste problem as being the biggest con in nuclear power.
As we increase electrification of our economy and daily lives we are going to have increasing demand. Southern california is already struggling to meet current demand. Brownouts increasingly common during the summer. If the state achieved its goal of mandating EVs things would get far worse wrt demand.
Increasing demand for electricity, sure, but reducing demand for power. When you consider primary power consumption, electrification in transport and heating across residential, commercial, and industrial sectors presents the possibility of cutting the non-electrical portion of it in half or more. The real world mileage of a modern BEV including environmenttal controls is about 3 miles per kwh. Average household mileage is about 55 miles per day, so about 18.333 kWh. The average household currently uses about 30 kWh per day. So we're talking about an approximate 61% increase in household power usage but, across the board with other transportation sectors (excluding shipping and long range air transportation for now) and heat pumps, etc. total electrification would increase electric demand by about 35%. So, sure, we would need more electricity. Of course, we would also need a lot less primary power. That 35% increase is just not some insurmountable goal though. Also, the electrification push should also come with a push for more efficient, intelligent (and not in the "my refrigerator has an app so I can see if the light is one" way), grid aware appliances.
Reality is that EV adoption will not be as fast as California wants. And renewable plant buildouts will not be as fast as advocates hope. And battery and other storage solutions will bot appear as fast as advocates desire. And this means we will just continue building more natural gas plants to backup renewables. We should be build nuclear, demand is going to be increasing for decades.
The reality is that the US is at about 25% renewable power. The world is at about 34%. Europe is on the threshhold of 50%. At its current, relatively slow growth rates, the US will reach 100% renewable around 2038, and the 135% required for near total electrification in around 2044, and that's without any major technology leaps, like average solar panels doubling in efficiency to match the best lab ones we have now. If the US actually catches up to the EU rate, it would hit the 135% mark in 2038. If it caught up to China, it would be around 2033. So, the big problem for nuclear power is that, for any nuclear project starting now, there is a very high chance that the market for its power would be completely replaced by renewables when it's finished.
Not quite, newer reactor designs are far safer. Some failure scenarios of the past no longer possible.
I addressed and acknowledged that, but nevertheless, solar panels or wind turbines simply don't create those kinds of problems in the first place. They don't have to have special measures to prevent them from spontaneously melting deep into the ground, etc. Factors like the extremely high specific power involved, the use of inherently dangerous and corrosive substances (radioactive and nonradioactive), the pressures involved, even the possibility of failure of the aforementioned safety measures all introduce a domain of things that go wrong that can't happen with renewables.
Now, as I said, those are not my main concern. The economics and logistics are. I do need to point out that those other concerns are not imaginary, though.
Negligent operations that (1) can be addressed by regulation and oversight...
But one of the premises of SMRs and other modern nuclear attempts is that those troublesome regulations and paralyzing oversight can be removed and that is desirable and necessary for the assembly line production method to thrive. We won't bother with talking about the fact that it's already a massive failure if we're talking about needing to airlift in equipment to prevent a disaster since we've already accepted that we're talking about newer designs and those should, in theory, not fail catastrophically (well..., I'll get into that), if power/cooling is lost and they are simply abandoned rather than a mad scramble to stop the problem. But, we do have to get into exactly what catastrophic failure is and isn't. The newer designs are more likely to protect the public. But, if these events do happen, it's still a catastrophe, just more of an economic one with a completely unrecoverable reactor. Not to mention that they are often still effectively permanent disaster areas. Ones that are safely contained inside a containment building, but perfectly safe as long as it is never opened.
Again, we are talking about complementing renewables, not displacing them. The SMRs would still be able to provide backup when renewables are not operational. We have not really solved the storage problem. We are still building natural gas plants. SMRs could displace these gas plants.
That didn't really have anything to do with what I said about economies of scale. The point was that the SMR logic doesn't make any sense. As you reduce the size of the reactor, the power produced scales down faster than the amount of other stuff you need to operate the plant. So SMRs are more expensive per unit of power.
The 1960s/70s Green movement, including greenpeace pretty much lumped in nuclear power with nuclear weapons. Greenpeace vigorously opposed it all.
Sure. Not disputing that. But the actual amount of effort they spend, and have spent on nuclear power is just a fraction of their total activities.
And I expect we will continue building natural gas plants as renewables and storage tech do not deliver as hoped, as demand massively increases as we increasingly electrify.
The data simply don't seem to be pointing that way, although I suppose it depends on what "we" means there. If you mean the whole world, then it really doesn't look that way. Basically, most of the nuclear projects right now are experimental. People are waiting to see how they turn out before they even start on other projects. We are looking at a decade plus before any subsequent projects are completed and most other projects are still going to wait to see how those ones do. By the time that happens, there simply isn't going to be any non-niche market for nuclear plants. People will wonder why they would be needed at all when wind and solar provide the vast majority of electrical power already. Without some really amazing breakthrough, nuclear just doesn't make it because slow and steady only wins the race when the faster racer takes a nap under a tree.