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Comment Re: we’re probably gonna bust past 1.8C (Score 1) 165

Better, worse, either way it's unsustainable so there's no point comparing the two things we need to stop doing and start looking at something viable unlike either of them.

Ethanol fuel is a) barely energy positive and b) a topsoil depleter which is c) fertilized with synthetics derived from petroleum anyway. It's shit all the way down.

Comment Re:My Experience (Score 1) 58

Look up "Jagged capabilities". That's where we are so far. And if you go back a couple of decades, a calculator could do math a lot faster and more accurately than you could.

A claim of "AGI" is a claim that the weakest of it's jagged capabilities is still stronger than that of the average human, and I don't believe we'll see that this year.

Comment Re:Watch the responses... (Score 1) 58

We have NOT had AGI, and I'll be really surprised if the OpenAI offering is one. What we've had is tools that are very good for certain specialized tasks. One characteristic that all of the tasks it's be exceptionally good at is that it's easy to validate the answer after you get it. (P == NP?)

When you get to tasks that aren't easy to validate, then it gets a LOT weaker. And you've to to be certain that it isn't just fabulating...i.e. giving you an answer because you asked it to do so, even though it doesn't have a good guess at what the answer should be.

Note that, e.g., AIs that generate protein folding predictions aren't necessarily accurate, they're giving you a best guess, or a series of probable guesses. I'm not counting those as "easy to validate", because currently the AI, itself, can't do the validation. But they're quite useful, as the good models do about as well as a human expert, but a lot faster and cheaper...however you must NOT skip the validation step. (People can't make accurate predictions in this domain either.)

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