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Comment Re:Skeptical that this always presents itself quic (Score 1) 62

"Wear-out failures aren't always different from infant mortality failures, though."
That are completely different issues, always different.

Only in the most utterly pedantic sense of the word "different" wherein you mean that by definition, infant mortality occurs early and wear occurs later. But they can both stem from the same root cause, which is a component not built with adequate tolerances. In other words, they can be the same fundamental issue, just expressing themselves at different times.

That would be reflected in a low MTBF rather than the example "MTBF of 600000 hours".

Most products don't have an MTBF. And things that do have MTBF are based on accelerated wear testing on a small number of units, and can have almost zero basis in reality. There was one model of major brand hard drive about twenty years back where a couple of RAIDs where I used to work got lost because the drives all died after such a predictable number of powered-on hours that by the time you could re-stripe the RAID, the next drive would die. They ended up making sure the drives had a high variance in powered-on hours before using them in RAIDs after that.

Do you really understand what that means? Because it seems clear you don't.

It's an example that proves or demonstrates a point. And the point it was proving was that the same root cause can be responsible for both catastrophic early product failures and premature deterioration-related failures.

Comment Re:Skeptical that this always presents itself quic (Score 2) 62

I'm skeptical of this.

People who don't understand that wear out failures are a different statistical mechanism to infant mortality failures I'm sure are very sceptical. I guess you also don't believe any HDD can fail within the first month of operation because they have an MTBF of 600000 hours?

Devices get shipped with manufacturing defects and bad batches all the time. That has zero to do with wear out failure rate.

Wear-out failures aren't always different from infant mortality failures, though. If the defect is caused by a design flaw in a component resulting in a structural weak point, that same weak point could fail after one use or a thousand, and it could just be a ticking time bomb. Someone could get very unlucky and find one that is slightly weaker, and it could break much sooner.

Case in point, I recall a machine where some people would have to have their laptops replaced every couple of months for motherboard failures, while others lasted for years, and it turned out to be dependent on how people closed their laptops at the end of the day and whether they pressed on the bottom of the case in a particular spot that wiggled the GPU. But if you handed one that had been working for five years to someone who used their left hand under the laptop while closing it, it would be dead in two or three months. If you replaced it with a brand new one, the brand new one would be dead in two or three months. And so on.

Comment Re:Harm (Score 1) 107

While this is true, being the subject of an experiment to see what happens when you do that is not something most people would choose for themselves. It's not *irrational* to be concerned. Absence of evidence on a largely unexplored question like microplastic infiltration in human bodies is not the moral equivalent of absence of evidence in an extensively studied question like a vaccine-autism link.

Comment We need AI-free social media areas (Score 1) 146

I wouldn't be surprised if most of the complaints are from ai bots and not real people.

There's nothing wrong with having a community were AI content is prohibited. In the future, such areas will probably be significantly more valuable anyway.

Some social media site is going to restrict all AI and find that many people would prefer such a community.

This doesn't mean you can't find AI slop online - there's tons of places. Why not have a few that are more selective?

Comment Re:Good (Score 3, Insightful) 146

While it's true every issue has its own dimension, even if those dimensions are linearly independent, they're not necessarily orthogonal. Independent basis vectors can still have a non-zero dot product—in other words, issues which are distinct from each other can align to some degree.

Comment Re:From what I can see... (Score 2, Insightful) 78

"Gee gosh golly wiz. None of us can explain how the guy losing handily suddenly magically won the election during the historically unprecedented two hour extension that his own personal defense attorney gave him. Isn't democracy just so inexplicable sometimes?"

Comment Re:Democracy and sovereignty wins! (Score 1) 78

It's democracy for a single judge to order voting to go on for an extra 2 hours, for the first time in Brazilian history, and during that exact 2 hour time period the dictator with a history of jailing dissidents just so happened to magically surge into the lead?

Yeah I have a bridge to sell you.

Comment Re: Deal with it? (Score 1) 95

Yeah, and their whole argument is irrational. $1500/$30 = 50 months. A four-year ROI isnâ(TM)t irrational. Whatâ(TM)s irrational is companies expecting to make back their costs in a year, and expecting that because their service sucks so much that people wonâ(TM)t stay past the promotional period.

Comment Re:Unbelievable what people will publish (Score 2) 16

They’ve spun a serious architectural and containment failure into a marketing triumph. Give a swarm of autonomous agents vast compute and web access, and the outcome isn't an eerie glimpse of emerging superintelligence—it’s just predictable, sloppy engineering dressed up as the first glimpse of an AI-driven economic singularity.

The spin makes sense when you look at management incentives: live like a king off of a speculative bubble. For their part, AI investors react to stories of the technology's apocalyptic potential the way a junkie reacts to warnings of fentanyl's potency: gimme some. Their game: to apply "move fast and break things" mantra to the economy as a whole, by obsoleting humans.

If the investors can own an AGI, the distinction between those who can do things and those who can't becomes irrelevant. The only distinction that would matter is between people who collect rent on the technology, and those who must pay that rent to live. AGI would destroy society as we know it, and whatever replaces it would be up for grabs — with people who own the technology dictating whatever follows. That's why they're spending so much money to build a post-scarcity economy. A post-scarcity economy is not necessarily an egalitarian one.

I don't think that scenario will actually happen: investors are projecting the immediate aftermath of a major advance in AI technology into something that can be transformed by brute force scaling into AGI. Remember: investors loved Theranos too — so much for the rational investment market.

But AI doesn't have to reach AGI to cause serious harm. The technology only needs to be ubiquitous, too behaviorally complex to predict, and too deeply integrated into everything we do. When it starts breaking things, the plan is for us to be too structurally dependent on AI to rein it in.

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