Comment ahhh, but... (Score 1) 116
The recent surpluses have been driven by recent policy changes (mostly huge tax increases) which have had the natural consequence of changing the behavior of the population (if people did not react to changing conditions, they'd be idiots) which has in-turn created the major deficit which MIGHT be the "new normal". The tax increases are not going away, in fact they're scheduled to get worse, so the taxpayers (both individuals and businesses) who have departed for better states are unlikely to return. This is a phenomenon sometimes referred to as "killing the goose that lays the golden egg".
Just looking at "the data" always sounds smart to people who live in a world of data, as many Slashdotters do, but it's often important in life to look beyond the numbers and examine how people react to those numbers. Human activities, both individually and en masse, sometimes have effects that take time to be reflected in the numbers and by then it can be a little late to take account. It's also true that it's both easy and common for people to mislead with "the data". Numbers rarely speak for themselves; they're generally gathered and organized and presented by interested biased parties. There's reason why so many are familiar with phrases bout lying and statistics. There's an entire field of political abuse of data/information and how it's presented: spinning.
For the government of California to be shocked by the current huge deficit (remember: states, unlike the federal govt, cannot print money as a way out) is a bit like a guy who was been abusing his wife for years being suddenly shocked when she leaves him; it shows a remarkable lack of self-awareness and concern for others on the part of the abuser.