Supercomputer Models Sun's Corona Dynamics 105
gihan_ripper writes "Researchers from San Diego are using supercomputers to accurately predict the shape of the Sun's corona, based on magnetic field data from the photosphere. It is hoped that this model will enable us to predict Coronal Mass Ejections. When CMEs reach the Earth, they produce geomagnetic storms and can wreak havoc with communcations, GPS, and power networks. In the decade or so, the researchers hope to be able to predict CME collisions with the Earth and determine their impact."
Awesome! (Score:4, Funny)
Re:Awesome! (Score:4, Informative)
Global warming? (Score:1)
Re:Awesome! (Score:4, Funny)
Quickly, ready the missiles!
Re:Awesome! (Score:3, Informative)
Actually the scale is more like launching a big firework.
No worry, though, Earth's magnetic field is a pretty good shield.
Re:Awesome! (Score:2, Interesting)
It's funny you should say that. I would think that a sizeable nuclear detonation (at the right time and place) would cause a pressure wave powerful enough to disrupt the dynamo that is the low pressure center of a hurricane, and dissipate it. I dunno, any meteorologists in the crowd? Just how sensitive is a hurricane to disruptions of that magnitude? Do we even have a vaguest notion?
Re:Awesome! (Score:5, Informative)
No. See: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/C5c.html [noaa.gov]
Re:Clean Nukes? (Score:2)
Not a chance. Something about conservation of energy.
Now if somehow you could get something in the middle of it to convert the energy to a "useful" form, you could probably do something. A big enough wind farm in the middle of a hurricane -- lots of energy. Temperature difference between surface and deep waters -- lots of energy.
If you know exactly what you are doing, it should be possible to make stuff happen in one place rather
Re:Awesome! (Score:3, Insightful)
The NOAA [noaa.gov] might.
On top of not working, it'd just spew nuclear fallout everywhere. That's silly.
Re:Awesome! (Score:2)
On top of not working, it'd just spew nuclear fallout everywhere. That's silly.
I didn't think it was a good (tm) idea (LOL!); I was just curious if it was a basically feasible idea for the immediate goal of destroying the hurricane. Apparently I'm not the only one who's thought of this twisted plan, though (I though not. On second thought, It's too damn obvious.) BTW, thanks for the link.
Re:Awesome! (Score:1)
but i'm le tired...
ok, have a nap, then fire ze missiles!!!
Re:Awesome! (Score:1)
Re:Awesome! (Score:3, Funny)
Cool. A day off of work! (Score:4, Funny)
Hopefully that means in the future we'll get CME days off from work, since havok-wreaking on communcations, GPS, and power networks would severly limit my productivity.
Re:Cool. A day off of work! (Score:1)
Re:Cool. A day off of work! (Score:4, Funny)
Sounds like trying to predict the weather (Score:2)
Re:Sounds like trying to predict the weather (Score:5, Insightful)
Let me guess, you heard a butterfly can cause a hurricaine due to chaos theory right?
It depends what you mean by "accurately" I guess. If you mean predictions with high probability several days in advance, yes that's doable. As you may recall we're already predicting hurricaine formation and movement days to a week or more in advance now, with a decent level of accuracy, and getting better all the time.
Global forcasting is already able to predict micro-climate changes months and even years in advance on a resolution of only several miles due to shifting weather patterns on a global/continential scale.
If weather was truly chaotic, i.e. if the total of all buterflys and other tiny variables made for completly unpredictable weather, then such predictions wouldn't be possible. Obviously the weather is not as chaotic as many HS professors have cliamed in that famous example. For that matter we wouldn't likely see big stable spots on Venus or have predictble trade winds here on earth, or all sorts of other fairly predictable features.
From monitoring the globe via satellite for things like ocean temps, and with many sensors for wind speed, forecasters construct fluid dynamic simulations which make it possible to predict smaller and smaller weather patterns further into the future, with increasing accuracy, butterflys or no.
Re:Sounds like trying to predict the weather (Score:3, Insightful)
No, I've read a couple books on chaos, and did experiments with chaotic pendulums and water drop formation back in undergrad senior physics lab. The equations underlying weather prevent one from ever accurately predicting the condition in a specific location the further you go into the future, and that "distance" into the future is not going to increase as our technology increases. It's going to remain short.
Re:Sounds like trying to predict the weather (Score:4, Insightful)
However, it will be possible to predict large weather patterns long in advance, years and even decades. For averages over longer periods of time they're already making predictions by running simulations on a global resolution of only several miles.
Medium scale weather events like hurricaines can be predicted days in advance now becasue it's not that chaotic, it relies on large events like global weather fronts, ocean temps, etc which allow prediction to a high degree of accuracy now. And yes, better methods and increased comuatational power are making those predictions more accurate, earlier.
You should actually read papers on what's being done on climate modeling by going to some of the relevant sites. Operating on classroom theory of chaos generalized to weather isn't exactly useful.
Re:Sounds like trying to predict the weather (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Sounds like trying to predict the weather (Score:3, Insightful)
Unless you believe that Thor, Zeus, and friends are meddling in our weather, it is completely deterministic. The fact that we cannot measure enough of the inputs to the system to make long-range predictions, does not mean that it is not a deterministic system created and controlled by causation.
Re:Sounds like trying to predict the weather (Score:2)
Re:Sounds like trying to predict the weather (Score:2)
Re:Sounds like trying to predict the weather (Score:2)
Re:Sounds like trying to predict the weather (Score:2)
But if a single neuron is composed of approx. 4 quadrillion atoms, these effects cancel each other out much more effectively, than if you are talking about 120 atoms. I've heard this called "The Law of Big Numbers", but that might have been a joke from a math professor.
Aside from quantum effects, the universe also is indeterministic
Re:Sounds like trying to predict the weather (Score:2)
Re:Sounds like trying to predict the weather (Score:2)
As for the beginning of the Universe lying outside of time, that might speak against the future being predetermined at the beginning of time. However, that would not impact the notion of ongoing causation. The state of the Universe one hour from now is caused by the state of the Universe right now.
Perhaps the "Law of Big N
Re:Sounds like trying to predict the weather (Score:2)
Re:Sounds like trying to predict the weather (Score:2)
Re:Sounds like trying to predict the weather (Score:2)
I think your understanding of the terminology is rather superficial. Your introducing the philisopical dimension of the word into the discussion was a silly attempt to say something smart sounding.
Re:Sounds like trying to predict the weather (Score:2)
Btw, that's also a rather silly and superficial distinction in regards to life on earth and the weather. If you want to be a weenie (which you seem to desire greatly) you could argue our free will and interaction with the universe makes everything non-deterministic or conversely the universe is deterministic and therefore no free will.
> or do you mean, "Regardless of any advances in technology a
Re:Sounds like trying to predict the weather (Score:2)
Re:Sounds like trying to predict the weather (Score:1, Informative)
Um, there are no equations underlying weather. There are equations that model weather patterns, however (I presume that's what you meant...). These current models are limited by, for example, available processing power. New technologies allow for alternative models, which may be more accurate at making predictions about future weather patterns. So to say that "It's going to remain short" is a bit short-sighted.
Re:Sounds like trying to predict the weather (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Sounds like trying to predict the weather (Score:3, Insightful)
The weather is a chaotic system in the mathematical sense of the word. That doesn't mean it's impossible to predict anything about the system. A coffee cup you pour milk into forms a chaotic system. The average temperature of the cup over time is easily predictable.
Re:Sounds like trying to predict the weather (Score:2)
>completly unpredictable weather, then such predictions wouldn't be possible.
That would be random weather, not chaotic weather, which is a quite different beast.
Hurricane forecasts (Score:2)
Really? How quickly we forget ...The National Hurricane Center was saying this about Katrina on August 25, 2005
Re:Hurricane forecasts (Score:2)
Re:Hurricane forecasts (Score:2)
Care to back that up or are you just trolling?
Re:Sounds like trying to predict the weather (Score:2)
Incredible videos (Score:5, Interesting)
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/bestofsoho/Movies/
--
Northern Virginia? Forums and Arrest/Ticket Database [fairfaxunderground.com]. Seeking additions to the (new) wiki [fairfaxunderground.com]
Re:Incredible videos (Score:1)
This is is the
Re:Incredible videos (Score:2)
Hmm.... (Score:2)
Now really! This is ridoculous... (Score:2, Funny)
Java? (Score:3, Funny)
Yes (Score:1)
The designer (Score:1, Offtopic)
For a moment... (Score:2, Funny)
-clueless
Re:For a moment... (Score:1)
Re:For a moment... (Score:1)
Re:For a moment... (Score:1)
collision avoidance (Score:1, Offtopic)
After that it's a rocket jump control to avoid incoming asteroids. I beleive that's going on belgium.
I love it when you talk that way... (Score:1, Offtopic)
What is it, something along the lines of 8+ minutes for CME effects to flood our area post clip...? Not much time for adjustments if the predict fails.
What we could do even we could predict it? (Score:1)
Re:What we could do even we could predict it? (Score:5, Informative)
Many GPS satellites are orbiting in low-Earth orbits. Those are protected by Earth's magnetic field (most of the time) and will be fine against a regular CME.
Re:What we could do even we could predict it? (Score:3, Funny)
That's it. I'm going to sleep.
Here's why prediction is useful (Score:5, Informative)
The benefit in knowing collision dates is that we'll be able to partially protect our assets from the storm. For example, power companies can issue a planned outage, taking their transformers off-line for a brief period during the storm in order to prevent a longer outage caused by damage.
This is like our desire to know how the (terrestrial) weather is going to behave, even though we can't influence it. Advance warning helps us to prepare for adverse weather.
Re:Here's why prediction is useful (Score:2, Informative)
CME prediction *may* also be useful to virology. The frequencies of CMEs vary with sunspot cycle (~11 year period). Moreover, solar radiation has biological impact as well and sunspot cycles (and thus, CMEs) have been strongly corelated with flu epidemics and pandemics: 1918 Spanish Flu, 1957-58 Asian Flu, etc.
The idea is as straightforward as radiation inducing viral mutation. We are currently at the low point in the cycle. The current, highly pathogenic H5N1 (a subtype/mutation of the Influenza A virus)
Re:What we could do even we could predict it? (Score:2, Informative)
1.) Send NOTAM's to pilots that Navgiation systems will be shutdown or disrupted during time X through time Y. Advise on an alternate navigation procedure.
2.) Get the astronauts out of space; The increased radiation might kill them.
3.) Figure out (another simulation) what
I imagine the hardest part... (Score:3, Funny)
(hackwrench, this should have been your comment)
Re:I imagine the hardest part... (Score:3, Funny)
Supercomputer Models Sun's Corona Dynamics? (Score:1)
Re:Supercomputer Models Sun's Corona Dynamics? (Score:1)
Just ask Hactar (Score:3, Informative)
In other news researchers are using supercomputers to accurately predict the weather, earthquakes and the stockmarket.
We already have a perfectly good satellite based early warning system for predicting Space Weather [noaa.gov]. Trouble is the damn thing keeps knocking them out. I think we should skip this trivial phase of technology and move directly to space weather control. I reckon all we need is to turn up the volume in HAARP [wikipedia.org] or hire these guys [goldendome.org].
Space weather prediction from space... (Score:3, Informative)
Perhaps more importantly, both ACE and SOHO are aging (SOHO is nearly 11 years old, compared to its original 2-year mission) and there is n
Coronal Mass Ejections (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Coronal Mass Ejections (Score:1)
Corona is always better with lime!
Model Improvement how? (Score:2, Insightful)
An argument for coffee in the morning... (Score:1)
yowie (Score:1)
Oooooh... I thought that was a new product (Score:2)
Slashdot needs... (Score:2, Funny)
and more articles about "Dynamic Super Models Drinking Coronas"
NOT Supermodels (Score:2)
Crap... I read the title as Supermodel Computes Sun's Dynamic Corona and thought it had to do with a beer commercial starring women in bathing suits.
There goes my dyslexia again.
Is this really useful? (Score:1)
Re:Is this really useful? (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Is this really useful? (Score:1)
Re:Is this really useful? (Score:1)
Magnets! (Score:2)
heh, movie (Score:1)
MODELS?!!? (Score:3, Funny)
And the big deal is...? (Score:2)
So we see them coming sooner than if just waiting for visual confirmation that it happened. It's not like we can do much about it with this extra warning time, is there?
Firefox plugin (Score:2)
It puts a tasteful text-based solar flux / A / K index display in the lower right corner.
If only (Score:2)
I think I speak for all of us... (Score:1)
Worse, it stirred my heart.
I need a girl...
Is it just me or... (Score:2)
KOOL! (Score:1)
The biggest challenge I had this month was either a dead network card or a psycotic printer.
I need a new job.
Super Model computers? (Score:1)