Comment Re:Old News? (Score 1) 137
no problem.
no problem.
Bingo!
russia has already reached the point where attrition cascades. even the nyt admits this.
Russian attrition is indeed spiraling.
https://en.zona.media/article/...
at this point only a few countries in europe (actually just 3-4 that count: uk, france, germany and maybe poland) and a minority of ukranians (20% according to last gallup poll) want to continue the war, hoping to rescue the situation in the long run.
With the exception of Putler very few wanted the war to start much less continue. Don't mistake wanting war to end for any Ukrainian willingness to acquiesce to absurd demands of Putler et el.
1. ukraine:
- fight to the last man (which will be soon) while being supported by
This is nonsensical. Both sides are capable of suffering their respective rates of attrition forever. This war like nearly every war will not be settled by running out of men. It will be settled by running out of will.
- steal russian assets to support ukraine for 2 more years, see from there. if they succeed, the money will last 6 months, it will wreck their financial industry for good (one of its few industries still standing) and when the trial comes they will have to pay the money back plus reparations.
Forfeiture of Russian assets is something that should have been done years ago as a down payment for harms Russia has already inflicted on Ukraine. This is no different than any corporation or person having their assets forfeited to cover damages they caused.
- rebuild their military, specially germany, for an eventual direct confrontation years down the line, 2030 is thrown around as a target. the problem with this plan is lacking industrial capacity, no access to cheap energy, no money, stagnation or growth of less than 0.5% in the best case and the fact that russia will keep doing the same with industrial capacity at full steam, unlimited energy, growing about 4% and about 4 years headstart.
You are delusional. The Russian military industry is shrinking because the country is going broke. The Russian central bank selling off gold reserves is like a spider eating its own web.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com...
https://peacerep.org/wp-conten...
now, the thing is that russia can win this conflict, and is actually doing so, but not the greater war. even if they get to the dnieper and odessa, as long as these european elites refuse to back off, and they don't seem inclined to do so, western ukraine will be a festering wound, even if totally depaupered. the conflict will freeze and will eventually erupt again. this is not a good situation for russia, which is why
Nobody can win jack shit. This war is exclusively grinding attrition for as far as the eye can see with Russia suffering the vast majority of all losses.
they want to negotiate, and their stance on this hasn't changed much since 2022, which is what they have been warning about since 2008. it would be the best for everyone, frankly.
You contradict yourself. Russia has shown zero interest in negotiation having maintained the same set of unacceptable maximalist demands throughout.
Got it. Thanks for the clarification.
A man will pay double for something he needs to have it right when and where he needs it. A woman will pay half price for something she doesn't need simply because "It's a good deal!" Women make purchases based on emotion. There are entire industries built around this. Cosmetics being the biggest one. Fashion being second. Hell, even plastic surgery. Women shop based on emotion. Tell them what they want to hear, and they'll pull out a credit card so fast you'll feel a shockwave.
Sure, whatever you say. The reality is that most studies show that, while the categories they spend most on differ from women, men tend to spend more than women on non-essential products based on emotion.
Advertising for men revolves more around giving a sense of purpose, practicality, productivity, freedom, endurance, and adventure.
In other words, appeals to emotion.
I'm actually responding to the AC above you. He is arguing that the attack wouldn't make any sense for either country to make, based on *national* interest. I'm pointing out that's not the only framework in which *regimes* make decisions.
Na, looks like you were just flat-out wrong. [denvergazette.com]
Do you care to explain how I'm wrong? All you did was post a link to the article. I read the article and it does not say anywhere that I can find that I'm wrong. Maybe if you want to use a source to make an argument you should, you know, actually make the argument.
The article does say:
The defendant plead guilty to the crime on Jan. 12. Four other counts against him were dismissed as a result of the plea deal.
which agrees to what I said. It also explains that it took 7 months for the officer to be charged, whereas Waddy was charged immediately.
Now, as to the other charges against Waddy, they included assault charges, but it is very hard to find much about the precise nature of those charges. This case is cited in a number of places as a case where someone was charged for actions of non-accomplices that harmed bystanders, but it is hard to find precise confirmation. None of the news articles go into enough detail and the major search engines are steaming heaps of garbage that just regurgitate news articles now. I tried going back to news articles right around the time of the original arrest and shooting. Same problem of course with detail, plus all of the articles at the time seemed to be credulously repeating what later turned out to be pretty much outright lies from the police.
So, it is cited as an example, but it is unclear. What is clear is that there were assault charges. Now, it is possible that those were instead about the fist fight that the police were originally called about, but the only victims named by any of the articles are the ones who were shot. Basically, while it still seems likely that this was an example of what we were talking about, there are no reliable primary sources immediately available to demonstrate it. At one point I would have searched harder and looked for court filings, etc. but the return is just so low since you seem unlikely to accept even absolute proof.
There are plenty of other examples though of police shootings leading to the person the police were after being charged for the indirect killing, even though the killer was not an accomplice. Try looking up Donald Sahota in Washington. He was an off duty police officer from Vancouver who was chasing a burglary suspect with his gun out. He was shot and killed by a Sheriff's deputy who thought he was the burglar. The burglary suspect was charged for murder as a result. That one seems like a pretty clear cut example meeting the criteria. The person killed was killed by a police officer (unless we want to nitpick on the differences between a deputy and a police officer). They were not an accomplice to the suspect the police were responding to. The suspect who they were responding to was charged with the death of someone they did not directly kill and who was killed by police.
So, it isnt the size of the quake that is the concern, it is the unknown shifting of material underwater. And 30 miles deep is pretty tough to gauge significant changes quickly.
Not that it invalidates what you are saying, I just want to be clear the 30 miles deep is underground. No water to displace there. The deepest part of the ocean is about 7 miles deep.
20-40 isn't coke bottle glasses.
That is true, but that is not the point. I was not responding specifically to that very specific example. I was responding to the part about:
"It's more as if there were a Diagnosis of Seeing Manual (DSM) that redefined the definitions to merge blindness with other vision problems into a single category, a spectrum "Visual-acuity spectrum disorder".
Which was frankly surreal since that category or spectrum obviously already exists (not under their made up name, of course) and it is truly bizarre to encounter anyone who does not know that. It's like talking to someone who does not know that there are different kinds and severity and causes of diabetes and that people with diabetes just need to "stop eating like pigs". Or people who don't believe that allergies exist and intentionally put things into people's food that they say they're allergic to. Etc., etc. Those, and others, by the way are real examples. Actual people I have met in real life. They really think that allergies are made up. As in, they think there is literally no such thing and that they're entirely made up. It's basically right up there with flat Earthers and people who think the moon landings were faked. You just feel like, somehow, they're not living in the same universe as you.
Regarding Waddy. If the charges were dropped, that means that he was being prosecuted on those charges, so what I said is correct. Also, just worth noting that the officer shot 7 people and got probation whereas Waddy went to prison for 2 1/2 years on a firearms possession charge. This was after pleading guilty to the possession charge. In other words, a plea deal. The prosecution over assault charges for the shootings was not dropped because of the prosecution of the officer, it was dropped because he took a deal.
The very simple fact is that it is indeed the case that someone can be charged for shootings by a third party who is explicitly not their accomplice if they commit a crime that leads to the shooting. I am making no claim on whether this is right or wrong, or what a jury will decide in court, or how prosecutors might decide to handle it, or any other point. I am saying only that it can, and does happen and that my statement is demonstrably true due to recent court cases.
Certainly the data aggregation is a real one. In theory, it is a separate issue from people doing their own private filming and photography in public though. Now, modern technology and the relentless corporate push to make all data produced by everyone corporate property stored on public servers instead of kept privately certainly bridges those two issues. Regardless though, we should not conflate them.
Oof. You really seem to have it bad on this trying to pretend that you're actually politically neutral/both sides thing. I'm not a partisan. I have political leanings and preferences of course. I simply recognize the extreme limitations of the US system of elections. I am basically very much against one of the two major parties because of a pretty long list of the ways they are completely against the majority of my principles. Until the broken system is fixed (which does not seem likely any time soon, since the vast majority of people don't really seem to grasp the most severe problems with it), that means that I have to weigh the lesser evil. As it stands at the moment, there is, from my perspective, a clear greater evil, so the choice is pretty much a default. I am not some sort of fan or zealot. Frankly though, I think you know all this. I don't think you're calling me "partisan slime" because you believe it. I think you're doing it because you know that I am not, but you also think that calling me something I am not will trigger me, so it's just a cheap trick on your part.
OpenBSD has the luxury by fiat that users will accept utterly breaking API for previous versions, to say you must recompile all apps for the new 32 bit time_t; not a big deal the way the distro is put together, if you use their thousands packages you're fine, they did the work for you. OpenBSD users are fine with the "flag day break the past" approached, explained, promised and delivered.
Not the case in Linux land, utterly different situation. They promise and keep backward compatibility of 32 bit libraries. No flag day promised, threatened or allowed. Your 32 bit Linux will die in 2038, deal with it.
It is possible to preserve previous structures for compatibility while accepting changes for newly compiled software. For example to support 64-bit time_t on x86 build add the compiler flag D_TIME_BITS=64. Decades ago similar changes were made to allow for handling of large files in Linux without breaking backwards compatibility.
Entirely incorrect.
In the compromise of 1877, both sides claimed to certify the election. It was some pandemonious insanity, which is what led to the Compromise of 1877- to hopefully prevent it from happening again by drawing clearer rules. The problem is, those rules were never binding. Everyone just played by them for 150 years.
For starters, the compromise of 1877 is still really just a theory. Whether there was or was not a secret compromise is irrelevant to the slates of electors though (although clearly relevant to the general voter suppression discussion). I suggest however that we just talk about the contested Presidential election of 1876.
As far as the slates of electors go, we have four disputed states: Florida, Louisiana, South Carolina, and Oregon each with two slates of alternate electors. In Florida, the state canvassing (returning) board produced one slate of electors. The incoming Governor produced the other slate. In Louisiana the returning board produced one slate of electors and a candidate for governor produced the other. In South Carolina, the returning board produced one slate and the Democratic party produced the other slate. In Oregon, the two slates of electors were a bit confusing, there was an original slate of electors that effectively had authority from the governor and the secretary of state, but the governor tried to disqualify one and that have that one replace the others and that slate was also effectively originally produced by the governer and the secretary of state.
So, basically, the authority of the the slates of electors varied in legitimacy, but for all of them, there was some real question about the legitimacy of of the election. In three of those cases, the returning board produced electors based on decisions about illegitimate votes that were disputed. In Oregon, there was an eligibility dispute. In the 2020 election, while there were recounts and lawsuits, etc. none of them put the actual outcome of the elections in any of those states in any real doubt. Also, no state officials actually backed or certified any of those alternate slates of electors. Aside from that, in 1876, the certification was handled by a commission formed by Congress to deal with the crisis and none of the alternate slates of electors were trying to be electors after that as I said. Sure, there was a less concrete and defined process for certification (and the electoral college has always been a stupid idea for this and other reasons) at the time, but it was sorted out and then there was certification and, after certification, no more alternate slates of electors. Those are some of the critical differences, between 1876 and 2020.
You certainly do have a point about the rules not actually being very well defined and relying on good faith. I don't need to concede that, I already agree quite wholeheartedly that's a serious problem the US has. I have often, for example, pointed out that the problem with the Constitution is that, despite its principals, it has no teeth. Anyway, the ambiguity and reliance on good faith does mean that we're really picking at nits here. So, to be clear, there were other slates of electors in the past, I would not class all of those as legitimate though. Some appear to have been legitimate alternates created by state officials in relative good faith. Others were created by entities with no official state position at the time and really just qualify as fake electors. I mean, we're just nitpicking over an irrelevancy here. Fake electors were fake back in 1876 and fake electors were fake in 2020. Some alternate slates of electors have been legit. The ones in 2020 were not.
Not voting for A does not imply voting for B.
Potato, topato. In a de facto two party system it works out to more or less the same thing. Not giving someone being chased by a polar bear a ride on your snowmobile does not imply feeding them to a polar bear, except that they, you know, get eaten by a polar bear because you didn't.
I don't believe you, particularly since you clearly believe that any means justify your ends.
I think I have been clear that I support the Democrats over the Republicans certainly. If that's a side, then I suppose you could say I have a side. If there were an alternate party whose goals aligned more with my own though, I would drop the Democrats in a heartbeat provided that they actually had a chance to win (which, in the present system, they would not because de facto two party system). So, in that sense. The one that I meant, I do not have a "side". So you can not believe me if you want, but it's just a matter of semantics, not reality. I don't have loyalty to sides, I am simply pragmatic in my choice.
Also:
...since you clearly believe that any means justify your ends.
Say what? That's a bit out of nowhere.
So from beyond arguing from a position of simply being incorrect, I think you're also trying to hide your rhetorical goals.
What rhetorical goals am I supposedly trying to hide? I stated my position pretty clearly. You're kind of reminding me of politicians, speaking of their opponents declaring that "they have an agenda!" as if it's something sinister and that politicians do, in fact have agendas and normally publish them.
They're still making DVD drives. They're just mostly USB now. Ripping is pushbutton easy these days. No messing around with getting a copy of DeCSS and such.
Every successful person has had failures but repeated failure is no guarantee of eventual success.