Comment Re:Right now the real temperature here ... (Score 5, Interesting) 59
And the single biggest takeaway from all that work is: climatologists, as a field, have been consistently underestimating how bad things are and how bad they're going to get. This is because they're scientists, and all scientists are trained to be conservative in their assessments. Whereas a non-scientist might write "X proves Y", a good scientist will write something like "X suggests that Y may be happening" or the equivalent. This approach implicitly acknowledges uncertainty and the possibility that future work will yield different results: it's how science self-corrects over time.
This mindset is commendable: it shows intellectual honestly. But unfortunately in this particular discipline, at this particular time, it doesn't ring the alarm bells loudly enough. We need a Samuel L. Jackson moment: "The world is on fire, mXXXXrfXXXXXrs" We need radical changes, e.g. all fossil fuel production and consumption must end. We need vast reductions in energy consumption. We need sweeping societal changes, e.g., an end to daily commuting as the norm, it should be an exception. And even if we do all of that, it may still not be enough, because this is an exponential process with a huge amount of momentum -- in other words, we're going to keep sliding up the curve for some period of time even if we do everything that we should have done decades ago.
I've said, for all these years, that I'm not going to live to see the hellscape that's coming - the mass starvation, the killer megastorms, the wars over water, the refugee crises, the political, economic, and societal chaos. Now I'm not so sure.