Yes, and?

Even if you tell a human programmer to make no mistakes, they'll still write security holes. Yeah no shit LLMs aren't perfect. Neither are humans.

LLMs will cheerfully write egregiously bad ones unless you tell it not to. I find that a bit strange.

I predict that 3 years from now, the current DRAM shortage will turn into a glut.

Depends on how long it takes for the new fabs to come online. As of right now, there's about the right amount of capacity to supply the pre AI bubble world with DRAM.

Unfortunately unsold stock will be less useful because it's the wrong type for many consumer things. Though NVidia could rerelease some of the Quadro cards as consumer ones to make use spare HBM.

Robotics dweebs also deserve it, especially if their creations are used to (1) turf people out of jobs or (2) kill people - i.e. military purposes.

Meh. Firstly, I believe one of my creations is used to kill people, or as an important part of devices that do. But it's also used in a ton of other things. It makes as much sense to say steel is a bad creation because it's used to make guns.

Secondly, I'm not a pacifist. If someone's trying to kill me, I firmly believe in killing them first and I also do not think there is any such thing a a fair fight. Likewise I do not think it is evil of Ukraine to massively develop their arms industry and methods of killing people when it's in service of not getting killed or ending up in the dominion of Putin.

And if the world is going to develop weapons I really don't want it to be the sole preserve of the kind of dictatorial scumbags who don't jut not have your ethics, but positively revel in not having them.

The next AI Winter will be spectacular

One thing I am 100% confident in is that the that the AI winter following the oncoming crash will be every bit as bad as the internet winter following the dotcom crash.

Which is to say: not.

For a lot of things it works way too well and is way too effective to disappear. Sure we won't get frontier model inference for 1/5th of the cost. Some of the "growth at all costs" behemoths might crash as hard as webvan. But you know, online shopping and deliveries didn't die with them.

I mean take my futurology prediction with as much or little salt as you choose. But I'll lord it over you if I'm right and you can lord it over me if I'm wrong. Isn't that the true point of the internet?

While LLMs will probably make that worse

Why though? I'm not saying LLMs will not write security holes, they definitely will if you don't very explicitly tell them not to. But even the nerfed public ones are not bad at spotting security holes compared to people. Most people are notoriously bad at this, but there have also been enough that a huge number of CVEs have been well documented. These are all in the training data and LLMs can absolutely spot these patterns. And they can do it without getting bored on software that was written before those CVEs were found anyway.

Vogon or Klingon? Asking for a friend.

The "not innovating" claim every iterative phone release is also kinda silly, since the "slab of glass with some cameras" thing is largely a solved problem

That and also Apple has not had a record of being a particularly innovative company. What they've always been much better at is finding ideas that they can now implement well and polishing them. The iPhone wasn't a particularly innovative device, but prior devices sucked or were curiosities because the tech wasn't quite ready, and the software was too clunky.

And we all know about the iPod here. No wireless.Less space than a Nomad. Lame. And good gried those early devices had excrable UIs.

Giving people money to spend is a Demand Side Stimulus .

A demand-side stimulus makes sense when:
1. Unemployment is high
2. Inflation is low
3. The trade balance is in surplus

None of these conditions are currently true.

A demand-side stimulus in today's economy would fuel inflation and would mostly be spent on imports.

Can you define what you mean by "hoarding"?

Rich people have most of their money in equity. That's investing, not "hoarding".

That's only true until supply catches up with demand.

Plenty of new fabs are being built.

I predict that 3 years from now, the current DRAM shortage will turn into a glut.

Disclaimer: My predictions are usually wrong.

Requiring students to appear on-campus or requiring them to fill out a sworn affidavit in front of a notary public who will check their ID will deter money mules.

Exceptions for students unable to access a notary public (think people living in very rural areas) would need to be handled on a case-by-case basis.

"the world's limited supply of DRAM"

The world's constrained supply of DRAM should ease in 2-5 years, at which point his argument, such as it is, will be much weaker.

That said, from an economy-of-scale and efficient-use-of-resources perspective, centralization makes sense. But form a privacy, autonomy, actual-ownership, and personal freedom perspective, it's a disaster waiting to happen.

doesn't have a Wikipedia article either.

Indeed. Roddenberry seemed to think he should be like an older Kirk, a bit more dynamic and physically large on screen.

I'm glad they went with a more thoughtful and philosophical Picard. I only wish he had been given more opportunities to flex it, because when he did it tended to be brilliant.

I used to contribute regularly to Wikipedia and spent many hours editing articles each week.

The deletionists ended that.

Too much of my work was being deleted for stupid, arbitrary reasons.

If someone is willing to spend hours writing an article about Trudaeu's son, then it's reasonable to assume others are interested in reading it. Even if no one reads it, it does no harm by existing.

The deletions need to stop.