Well, usually we call countries where every house has to have its own independent power supply 3rd world country....

It's different if you have to have it to help support decentralication in an otherwise working power grid, or if you have to have it because of an unreliable power grid.

To be fair, the damage from the "attack" in Berlin was minor. But it happend at the very bottleneck where power for half of the city had to be routed through.

Any normal city (that was not divided for 50 years or is very remote) would have redundant feeds that could have taken over much faster.

The powergrid there is still divided in east and west

Yeah, there's two main problems:

1) People entering the wrong fields. For example, medicine really needs workers, at all levels, but not enough people are going into it.

2) Certain manual labour fields, like field work and home construction, because... well, I think we all know why there's a shortage of workers in those fields.

Based on what you've written, your PayPal experience is largely as a payor, and not a payee. That's certainly the most common case.

The other side of the transaction is very different. PayPal is heavily biased toward the former. That's a problem, because PayPal is quite unforgiving for payees. A big part of the problem is that payees are often ignorant, reckless or outright criminal, and their heads are often filled with small-business-person shit. People think they're clever or take things for granted with PayPal and get caught: accounts get frozen or shut down when people fuck around, and people do a lot of fucking around.

They frequently don't see it as fucking around. But that's a chronic condition, especially for business folks. You'll notice the lack of details seen from PayPal haters. When they do share, you'll learn all about how fast PayPal picks up on all the screwball things people try to pull, and how little patience PayPal has for the nonsense in the heads of these people.

PayPal isn't perfect. Handling money is complicated, and PayPal has made mistakes. But you can safely chalk up about 99% of the PayPal hate you see to payees that learned the hard way that their bullshit won't fly with PayPal.

I live in Oslo, Norway. I'm driving a BMW i3 I bought new 12 years ago. It was a piece of shit the day I bought it. It's the exact same piece of shit now. I've calculate that so far, I'm at about $245 USD per month total cost of ownership including charging and toll booths across these 12 years. I suspect I can drive it for another 6-10 years and by then I expect the TCO to have dropped to about $195 a month before it starts increasing again.

I can't drive this shit heap too far, 120km on a great day in the middle of summer. And I had an incident a few years back on the countryside in -11C temperatures where I only got 50km in the mountains that day.... that was REALLY COLD but I had blankets for the 3 hour wait for the tow truck.

We'll take a vacation in a few weeks, we'll rent a crappy tesla and drive to Gothenburg or Stockholm. Still massively cheaper than wasting money on a new car that would give me better range for the week or two I need it to. But I still go grocery shopping a few times a month in Sweden because I'm not stupid and this crap car can make it there with a little extra charge each way. Which is no problem because there are chargers at pretty much every exit and they're cheap.

So, that brings me to trucks...

1) one driver 5 truck caravans. This is close and it's going to happen. In fact, I'm pretty sure within a very short time, we'll see most trucks driverless on the highway and then you'll see professional drivers being delivered to trucks for last-mile travel where the trucks will still do the driving, but supervised. And then in time, no more drivers... except in New York where some guy named Joe Joe who graduated from "Vinnie's airplane towing school" is considered more qualified than an airline pilot with a hundred thousand hours of flight time and a formal education and tows airplanes to the terminal because "we're a union shop".

2) Telsa isn't selling the trucks to make money from the trucks... oh they will... but consider that a model-X at 1/50 the size is like 1/3 the cost of the truck. The money comes from the infrastructure. Tesla will build out a charging network even if they have to dip into the college funds of Musk's 72 children to do so. And he'll use fuel cell and solar and possibly wind to charge up the battery power banks. He'll then find a way to cut deals with the truck stops that he'll install the chargers at their truck stops in exchange for parts of the food profits and for massive discounts on any fuel needed for the fuel cells. Then he'll make a deal with netflix and disney plus and all of them for the entertainment systems in the trucks and he'll charge the truck drivers for Starlink. And he'll then have a huge fleet of spare Tesla Semi's that can be quickly delivered to drivers on the road who have problems. They'll then arrange for the semi to be serviced and returned to the driver as he passes back. Of course, all at a cost.

Within 5 years, he'll have streamlined most of the US land freight infrastructure, bled everyone dry in the process and be strongly positioned to sell Tesla Semi as a service in competition with the existing fleets.

Europe and Asia (outside of Russia and India) will be a much tougher win because we prefer rail where possible. And at least here in Norway, we would still rather invest in new rails rather than new roads.

The Windows Start Menu is so frigging confusing that I use it for two things

1) press windows, type name of app, press enter
2) press start, type basic equation (I.e 5/1.35), pray it gives me numbers and not an advertisement for feminine hygiene products

I am terrified when I need to use a mouse on the start menu. It's as though it can do everything except start programs

This.

Culturally it would have been a big shift, even given the talent they have, but they just don't have the courage of leadership it would have taken to do this. It's been 60+ years since IBM had that, when they bet the company on the 360. The PC doesn't count; that was essentially a side project for IBM. They didn't create the hardware or software for it, and the companies future wasn't riding on it.

It's a part of their business, but not a majority of it, even before AI. They've added AI coprocessors to their Telum CPUs for their Z series platform, but it's not a significant player in the world of AI money. More of a checkbox me-too thing that probably will be of use for legacy customer applications, but no one is building data centers full of Telums to compete with OpenAIAnthropticGoogleEtc.

Good question. Their POWER series of CPUs were not insignificant in capability, their chip designers were clearly technically sophisticated, and GPUs are just specialised vector processors with a few extra bells and whistles - stuff IBM is extremely familiar with.

It would not have been difficult to release a GPU or other LLM-specific processor to go along with the POWER11. They'd been working on the POWER11 for 4 years, they knew in 2020 that LLMs had a strong potential to be significant for Big Data processing - an area you use big iron for, they're not rank amateurs, they have plenty of reserve, they could have assembled an emergency team to build a vector processor that was custom-designed for just LLM work, and released an LLM processor card that could run circles around nVidia.

They didn't. Because, as has happened before, their management is simply too stupid and too slow.

Or let's put this another way. Show of hands - how many of you "spicy autocorrect" / "stochastic parrot" people had "AI will start mass-solving Erdos problems" on your forecast list a couple years back? Huh, none of you? Fascinating!

Take some time to reassess your priors. And while you do so, understand that, yes, they are doing logic / reasoning.

They weren't discovered by an LLM. They were known conjectures that were proven by an automated solving language that was linked to an LLM.

I'll take "Things That Didn't Happen For $200", Alex.

Only a handful of meaningful proofs have ever been done by automated formal theorem solvers (the Four Colour Theorem being the most noteworthy example - but its proof is so long that humans can't verify it). By contrast, AI tools have been solving Erdos problems en masse. The majority of them just bog-standard commercial models. In case you need help, the only ones on that list that were hybrid (AI / non-AI) in the actual solving phase are:

1) AlphaProof / DeepMind Prover Agent / AlphaProof Nexus
2) Aristotle (Harmonic)
3) Seed Prover / Seed Prover 1.5 (ByteDance)
4) AxiomProver (Axiom Math)

In each of the above, LLMs come up with the lemmas / strategies but then use Monte Carlo search ("brute force") or likewise to investigate what they came up with. These are a minority. In the "AI Standalone" category, these "hybrid" tools made up only ~20% of attempts and successful proofs. Hybrid tools actually made more of a contribution in the "AI Alongside Literature" (related literature found afterward) and even more of the "AI Building On Literature" (related literature known beforehand) categories, which is the opposite of what people like you expect.

And even with the hybrid tools, it's still the AI doing the heavy lifting when it comes to strategy. Non-AI theorem solvers, again, don't have a spectacular record for churning out novel proofs to unsolved problems. Tools like Lean are more about mathematical rigour - a passive environment that requires a driver (a human or AI) to feed it actual strategies, lemmas, and proof steps. And no, you cannot brute force "strategy" in the vast majority of cases, which is, again, why automated theorem solvers don't have much of a track record with unsolved mathematical problems.

Let's take a random example: the disproof of the unit distance conjecture. It was solved purely by a general purpose commercial GPT model, not custom-trained to mathematics, with no external tools. Read what the various mathematicians reviewing / commenting on it have to say (sections #3 and onward). Seriously, don't skip reading them, actually read them. This was one of Erdos's favourite problems. He mentioned it commonly in his lectures. Essentially every mathematician working in complex geometry has thought about this problem. The approach that the model came up with was highly novel approach, based on CM-fields and class field towers.

I know you don't want to accept this reality, but it is the reality, so you better improve your ability to accept it,. The field of mathematics is already doing so.

Dang, link didn't post.

Ah, good 'ol "Model Collapse" theory that people have been pounding on for years now, predicting an imminent collapse in model capabilities. How has that been working out for you?

Except what the US is actually facing, at least in the near term, is just the opposite, a worker shortage.

You can't pay royalties to the entire internet. That's not realistic.

What is practical are things like taxes to fund public benefits, or requirements of returning things to the commons (for example, open models).