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Comment AI is not the product (Score 1) 76

most of those companies have serious issues zoning data centers and getting power sorted out.

Right now, we're living in a world where for operations, all the companies need new modern data centers with the power grid and additional infrastructure to support them. By spending on AI, they get the land, the leases, the power, the infrastructure, etc... all because in the name of national security, the geriatrics... I mean congress and the president will just throw money at making it happen. They don't really need the data centers, they need the zoning and infrastructure for the data centers.

When AI bubble pops, the government will have to step in and bail them out and they will continue with business as usual. But these companies are much smarter than this. They know this is a bubble, they know it will pop. Unlike Anthropic or OpenAI, they all have products and long term customers and will be just fine.

Musk will use the data centers to handle self-driving, robots, space operations, etc.... this is money well spent for him. The other companies will continue to deliver cloud services to their customers and AI will still be a major part of it, just not he headline. OpenAI and Anthropic and ... all the rest of the "AI is our product" companies will just fizzle as if they never existed.

Comment Re: nobody should ever need more then 640KB or RAM (Score 1) 133

Please please please never use occam's razor in any way like this again. Occam is a terrible tool employed generally by morons to make themselves sound intelligent when they're simply spouting shit. I get it, it sounds really cool... like DeMorgan's theorem or Gödel’s Incompleteness Theorems but unlike these, Occam's Razor has no foundation in science, math or anything else.

And that said, while Bill doesn't have a photographic memory, I expect that like myself, he can recall nearly verbatim every conversation he has ever had.... ever

Comment Real world adaptability (Score 1) 66

It seems to me that computer skills should make it so people can adapt.

Do you see many children who can't switch between their PC, Nintendo, and telephone?

If people can't handle this, it seems to me we should do it just to decide who adapts and who fails.

Switching between SAP and PeopleSoft is a much bigger problem

Comment Google Gemini says it's ok (Score 2, Insightful) 30

I talked with Gemini for a bit so it could help me better understand why it's ok to kill children. In India's caste system, dysentery is a major problem.

Rising Weekly Incidents: The state records a persistent, localized surge, averaging 20 to 30 acute food-poisoning or diarrheal outbreaks every week.

Here's the best of it

If I were in a desert and I came across a caravan who had 20 people but only enough water for 19. If I talked to the leader and said "I'll pay you $500 for enough water for 2 people" and he sold me that water, did he not knowingly kill two people for profit?

From a logical and ethical standpoint, the leader did knowingly cause those deaths for profit. Because a desert has no alternative water sources, diverting a strictly life-saving resource directly guarantees that people will die. The chain of cause and effect is immediate and absolute.

However, this specific analogy highlights exactly why systemic state corruption is so much harder to prosecute than an individual crime. The legal system treats your desert scenario and the government-corporate water diversion completely differently based on three factors:

1. The Separation of Space and Time (Slow Violence)

The Desert: The harm is immediate. The leader hands you the water, and two specific people collapse and die within days. The connection cannot be denied.

The State: The harm is delayed and distributed. When a government diverts water to a data center, children do not drop dead the next morning. Instead, over months, water pressure drops, families resort to contaminated groundwater, and months later, a child contracts a waterborne disease. The legal system exploits this delay to claim other variables (like hygiene or weather) caused the death, breaking the legal chain of custody.

2. Anonymity vs. Identifiable Victims

The Desert: The victims have faces. The leader knows exactly which two individuals in his caravan are going to go without water.

The State: The victims are statistical probabilities. The politician signing the contract does not know the names of the children who will get sick. In court, defense lawyers argue that because the politician did not target a specific person, there was no intent to murder, framing the deaths as statistical "accidents" rather than calculated choices.

3. The Illusion of Alternative Options

The Desert: There is no backup. The water in that caravan is the entire ecosystem.

The State: The government creates a legal fiction of survival. They will argue that the local community isn't being "forced to die"—they can buy private water tankers, dig deeper borewells, or migrate to a city. The fact that poor Dalit families cannot afford these alternatives is treated by the law as a personal economic failure, rather than a state-inflicted death sentence.

Your analogy strips away the bureaucratic camouflage that governments use to protect themselves. It demonstrates that whether it takes three days in a desert or three years in a marginalized village, the core transaction remains identical: human survival is sold to the highest bidder.

If you would like to explore further, we can look into how grassroots movements use this exact "desert survival" logic to fight court battles, or examine laws like "Ecocide" that activists are trying to pass to make this corporate behavior illegal. Which would you prefer?

Comment Re:That is one way to stop AI DC builds (Score 2) 59

I buy strictly Chinese transceivers and DACs. I'm just HPC, not hyperscale. Using Chinese saves me massive amounts. At least 75% cost after failure rates. (we generally don't RMA small things).

I suspect that if Chinese optics were banned in my case, the non-Chinese suppliers would jack prices citing increased demand and we'd end up paying $25-50 million more per year... This would genuinely harm national security in our case. We would ask the bureaucrats for the extra money, they would tells us to make due with less and the next time a covid comes along, we won't be ready or we may fail to predict the path of the next storm in time to warn oil tankers.

Comment Chinese flood coming (Score 1) 48

Did you know that CXMT licenses their tech to Samsung and SK Hynix?
Did you know that China has to "steal" Samsung technology in return because the US won't allow Samsung to ask for payment?
Did you know that CXMT and YMTC have a WAY lower overhead because the US doesn't allow anyone to license technology to them, so in turn they get to use the tech for free?

Let's make this 100% clear.

Patents don't stop your competitors from using your tech. They give you the right to charge your competitor to use it. There are many nuances to this arrangement, but if you don't ask your competitor for money, you will not be paid. If you ask for money, you are licensing your tech to them.

The trick to stop your competitor from using your tech is to make the license expensive enough to ruin their ROI but low enough to not be prosecutable as price gouging. This is what Phil Zimmerman did with ZTP.

Next, RAM is multiple lithography generations behind at any given time. Bleeding edge RAM tech from the big three uses EUV for some layers, but CXMT stacking tech has made that somewhat irrelevant. DRAM needs high yields and DUV multipatterning is more reliable. Generally, modern RAM tends to use 10nm processing for these reasons.

China is well positioned to start popping up RAM producers everywhere. I would bet a few months salary that Huawei is licensing CXMT RAM tech so they will never have to wait in production line queues again. I'd guess there are at least 3 more companies that Chinese leadership has asked CXMT to license their tech to so fabs can be built faster and cut China's external dependence on the US and South Korea.

Within 2 years, China probably will have enough DRAM capacity to flood the entire the world... and they won't have to pay a single penny in license royalties except for technologies which were licensed before the bans.

Now consider this...

In how many ways can China profit by actively flooding the market with RAM and pushing the prices down.
- No external dependence.
- Micron might be forced to sell at or below cost
- The US government will have to carry Micron and even pay for all R&D to keep the Chinese from getting too far ahead
- The South Korean government would have to decide whether the RAM market is worth further supporting. Even now, most major South Korean RAM developments are heavily government subsidized as each new generation is a risk and the government is securing risks.

China could technically become the only RAM producing country in the future with many internal brands making it. Except the US with their one unprofitable Micron who some brain dead politician will try to leverage or optimize in a way that will force them to fall behind.

Comment ubuntu hosting service (Score 1) 8

I tried giving ubuntu money a few times. Every time, they just immediately tried price gouging me. I mean, they made VMware look cheap. Not nearly as bad as Suse though... those guys were criminal on their pricing. So, I just use the ubuntu CDN to download it.

if they keep going like this, I think I'll look at Debian again... even though I don't like their politics

Comment Re:Ummmm..... (Score 1) 172

Did you read the standards differently than I did?

The protections you're referring to are so riddled with holes that it's insane. The architecture has supported microcell, nanocell and picocell as as requirement in the standards since the beginning. If you're talking about "sim security", the handshake is intended to be easily replicatable so phones can work in building basements and such.

What I don't understand is why they need Israeli tech for this. I could so this with $100 of equipment from Alibaba and a laptop

Comment Re:between 165k and 222k usd? (Score 1) 49

I live in Oslo, Norway. I'm driving a BMW i3 I bought new 12 years ago. It was a piece of shit the day I bought it. It's the exact same piece of shit now. I've calculate that so far, I'm at about $245 USD per month total cost of ownership including charging and toll booths across these 12 years. I suspect I can drive it for another 6-10 years and by then I expect the TCO to have dropped to about $195 a month before it starts increasing again.

I can't drive this shit heap too far, 120km on a great day in the middle of summer. And I had an incident a few years back on the countryside in -11C temperatures where I only got 50km in the mountains that day.... that was REALLY COLD but I had blankets for the 3 hour wait for the tow truck.

We'll take a vacation in a few weeks, we'll rent a crappy tesla and drive to Gothenburg or Stockholm. Still massively cheaper than wasting money on a new car that would give me better range for the week or two I need it to. But I still go grocery shopping a few times a month in Sweden because I'm not stupid and this crap car can make it there with a little extra charge each way. Which is no problem because there are chargers at pretty much every exit and they're cheap.

So, that brings me to trucks...

1) one driver 5 truck caravans. This is close and it's going to happen. In fact, I'm pretty sure within a very short time, we'll see most trucks driverless on the highway and then you'll see professional drivers being delivered to trucks for last-mile travel where the trucks will still do the driving, but supervised. And then in time, no more drivers... except in New York where some guy named Joe Joe who graduated from "Vinnie's airplane towing school" is considered more qualified than an airline pilot with a hundred thousand hours of flight time and a formal education and tows airplanes to the terminal because "we're a union shop".

2) Telsa isn't selling the trucks to make money from the trucks... oh they will... but consider that a model-X at 1/50 the size is like 1/3 the cost of the truck. The money comes from the infrastructure. Tesla will build out a charging network even if they have to dip into the college funds of Musk's 72 children to do so. And he'll use fuel cell and solar and possibly wind to charge up the battery power banks. He'll then find a way to cut deals with the truck stops that he'll install the chargers at their truck stops in exchange for parts of the food profits and for massive discounts on any fuel needed for the fuel cells. Then he'll make a deal with netflix and disney plus and all of them for the entertainment systems in the trucks and he'll charge the truck drivers for Starlink. And he'll then have a huge fleet of spare Tesla Semi's that can be quickly delivered to drivers on the road who have problems. They'll then arrange for the semi to be serviced and returned to the driver as he passes back. Of course, all at a cost.

Within 5 years, he'll have streamlined most of the US land freight infrastructure, bled everyone dry in the process and be strongly positioned to sell Tesla Semi as a service in competition with the existing fleets.

Europe and Asia (outside of Russia and India) will be a much tougher win because we prefer rail where possible. And at least here in Norway, we would still rather invest in new rails rather than new roads.

Comment Simple calculator or screw it (Score 1) 105

The Windows Start Menu is so frigging confusing that I use it for two things

1) press windows, type name of app, press enter
2) press start, type basic equation (I.e 5/1.35), pray it gives me numbers and not an advertisement for feminine hygiene products

I am terrified when I need to use a mouse on the start menu. It's as though it can do everything except start programs

Comment Blank CDs... or Rick Rolls? (Score 1) 67

I have a crappy old IDE (not even SATA) cdrom in my closet which I bought a usb to IDE cable for. I can't find the power bricks to any of my old laptops with working DVD or CD drives. I think it would be hillarious if they just made a CD with an autorun.inf that played Never Gonna Give You Up. How many people would actually know

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