Yeah, I used to do that too. Decided to stop bothering with the quotation marks a couple months ago.

We're not going to spend the rest of our lives putting quotations around words when talking about models. "Think" and "reason" the words we have in English for what is going on. No need to tiptoe around it. Again: models are not humans. They are not the same as us. But those are the words we have in English for what they're doing.

They are, by definition, Markov chains.

Even in your attempt to be pedantic here (in which the universe and everything within it is a Markov chain), no, it's not. The hardware state is Markovian but the linguistic processing is a Nth order autoregressive process; it depends on the N previous states. Also, your argument is akin to saying "a Boeing 747 is just an arrangement of quarks, so don't get hung up on aerodynamics." it entirely ignores the relevant architectural details, and instead substitutes a model that blows up exponentially explodes in size within a small number of states.

If you tried to build a Markov model to do what LLMs do, and could store one probability in every unit of Planck space across every unit of Planck time, it couldn't handle a prompt longer than about 2/3rds of the first sentence to A Tale of Two Cities.

I kind of wonder if the best anti-distillation strategy is, if you detect suspicious traffic from someone (which happens a lot, they monitor for anything that looks like distillation), instead of blocking them, feed them say the output from Llama 3.1 8B or whatnot ;) Maybe finetune it a bit so it talks Claude-ish. But basically, subtly poison their dataset with hallucinations and crappy reasoning without it being immediately visibly obvious.

As for copyvio, sorry, this is something for the courts, and so far, the courts have not largely found against the trainers, and have instead found, by and large, that they're being compliant. The most notable setback against Anthropic for example was a finding that they couldn't just download books in training dataset off the internet, but that they could perfectly legally just buy surplus books for pennies on the dollar by the palletfull, scan them in, and train on that. That this is perfectly complaint with US copyright law.

I think a lot of you wish that copyright law was a lot more restrictive than it actually is. Which is a REALLY bizarre thing to see on Slashdot of all places, which back in the day was the beating heart of "Data Wants To Be Free!" philosophy.

To be clear, though... I would welcome a compromise modification to copyright law, which is, if you want to train on the public commons, you absolutely may, indeed, train on whatever you want, zero liability, but then you have to give back to the public commons. So maybe your top frontier models are closed, but you have to simultaneously release smaller distilled equivalent versions of it into the public domain (how to define "smaller distilled equivalent versions" is of course something that would require discussion), and release said frontier models to the public domain within e.g. 1 year or whatnot.

* They remain incentivized to keep pushing the frontier, since some people will always pay for the best
* They get permanently out of the worry of any copyvio liability (beyond basic requirements about not verbatim reproducing copyrighted materials in outputs)
* The public gets a constant stream of ever-better models, at no cost.

Sounds like a balance to me.

It doesnt think

Yeah, it does.

it doesnt rationalize

Yeah, it does.

These are not Markov chains. They're neural nets. They work via extremely complex chained fuzzy logic on superpositions of conceptual states.

And the less slop it has to deal with

This is literally a thread about distillation, aka, training on the outputs of other models. Synthetic data is the cornerstone of modern training. "Model collapse" is not something that actually happens in the real world, only in contrived settings, the model equivalent of if you could lock a person alone in a dark room with only their thoughts for ten thousand years.

We need a book that explains how AI technology functions.

There is a huge amount of news and comments, but apparently nothing that helps people understand how AI is developed, and functions.

What is "it" in this sentence?

Are you talking about the minuscule Google RAG model whose weights are probably measured in megabytes to lower-gigabytes and which you could run on a cell phone with capacity to spare, and comparing it to the multi-terabyte frontier models in question?

at least the person downloading such a component is responsible for "looking over it" before using it.

I'm sorry, but since when? You absolutely should not be tasking every single user of major projects with the responsibility of doing a code review on the whole thing before installing it. There needs to be a clear distinction between "fly-by-night thing that some rando uploaded" and "library that a million people depend on". In the traditional approach, the latter was something tat you installed with a package manner, while the former was something you went and fetch off e.g. Github or whatnot - and if you did the latter, then you were accepting that it was untrusted software. But now we have both (including the potential for "soundalikes") installed by the same means with no distinctions made by the install method. That is not good.

The funny thing about all this is that their only goal appears to have been to download publicly-available data off of UK government websites. I'm betting that they were (A) being tested on a knowledge-related task, and (B) not given direct access to the internet, but their tool capabilities involved access to the "gem" command (so that they could install Ruby packages for their work), and so decided to abuse (B) to cheat on (A).

Once again: training a model with the reward being "does it solve the task?" without looking at how it solves the task is very, very dangerous. This is basically the plot of Universal Paperclips.

I know a LOT of software that could use that as a pull request...

Of course the third bomb probably wouldn't have gotten used regardless of the order, as the next bomb (made from the infamous Demon Core) was scheduled to be ready to drop on the 17th, whereas Hirohito announced the surrender on the 15th (wasn't signed until 2 September, but it's hard to imagine that the US would have dropped the bomb after the announced surrender).

One of the amazing things is that the atomic bombings didn't shift the vote in the 3:3 deadlocked Japanese war council at all; the hawks (Anami, Umezu, Toyoda) remained focused on adaptation, not surrender. But it did make the doves (Suzuki, Togo, Yonai) more desperate, and Suzuki met with Hirohito. Hirohito had already been looking for an opportunity to surrender, having had plans to send Prince Konoe to Moscow to ask Stalin to function as a neutral broker to end the war (with secret instructions to accept "peace at any price"), but the trip was delayed by the Russian side, ostensibly by the Potsdam Conference (but in reality, to prepare for the invasion of Manchuria). When the terms of the Potsdam conference came out, Togo told Hirohito that they "were the most reasonable to be expected in the circumstances", to which Hirohito replied, "I agree. In principle they are acceptable." But the urgency to accept that in July wasn't present. Everything started collapsing in August, with the loss of their mainland and Pacific territories, the Soviet invasion, and the atomic bombings. What the bombings achieved was to help stir Hirohito to imminent action (which risked failing, as there was a coup attempt against him (the Kyujo Incident) to stop Japan from surrendering). The hawks saw unconditional surrender not as agreement to the loss of their sovereignty, but as agreement to enslavement.

But this is getting rather off topic. :) Main topic: if you think your AI is as much of a risk to the fate of humanity as the atomic bomb, which many of these people truly believe, then you can expect similar hesitancy as with the developers of the atomic bomb. They felt an urgent need - ending a brutal war - but at the same time had deep apprehension about what they were doing and how the fruits of their labour would be used.

And if you want a past example of scientists who feared their creation wanting to slow down, stop, or even undo it, BTW, let us consider the atomic bomb. Farrington Daniels took a poll of the Chicago nuclear scientists in 1945 asking what they wanted to happen with the atomic bomb. Remember that these were the people whose literal job was to make a weapon. Only 15% - 1 in ~7 - wanted the US to use it as it actually did, e.g. just start bombing cities just a couple days apart. Only a small majority wanted it even used in Japan, even against military targets without the Japanese first being invited to a demonstration in the US and being given ample opportunity to surrender. 13% - nearly as many as those who wanted the US to use it as it actually did - didn't want it used at all under any circumstance, in a war that had already caused a million American casualties.

The problem that they faced was that people like Groves** really wanted to bomb cities, and they, as the rank and file, didn't get a vote.

** - It seems dubious that Truman really understood what he was signing onto. While he never shirked from responsibility for authorizing it, the paper trail shows that he didn't seem to understand what he was approving at the time. In his diary before the attacks, he writes about the weapon, but about how he insisted it not be used against civilians, killing women and children, because he didn't want to sink to what he saw as the barbarism of the Japanese. In his first speech after the bombing, he refers to Hiroshima as "a military base", not a city, and says it was chosen to, insofar as possible, avoid the killing of civilians - but that if Japan did not surrender, then the US would bomb Japan's war industry, and then thousands of civilian lives would then be lost. Earlier drafts showed that it didn't contain the "insofar as possible" caveat. He genuinely didn't seem to realize what he was authorizing at the time. But Groves absolutely knew what he was doing, and deliberately selected sites for maximum civilian casualties. Truman seems to have come to understand what was going on by shortly after Nagasaki, where he gave the order to cease use of atomic weaponry, saying that the thought of wiping out another 100,000 people was too horrible and that he couldn't stomach the thought of "killing all those kids".

They are competitive in quality with American models.

They absolutely compete against lower-end or previous-generation US models. I use GLM-5.3 and GLM-5.3 flash a ton, for example. But they do not compete against the top-end US frontier models from Anthropic and OpenAI.

If you can do a normal difficulty, verifiable task with an open Chinese model, you probably should. GLM is less than $5 per 1M tokens out, vs. $50/1M for OpenAI Astra for example. But there are some things that you'll just get stuck grinding your gears on with the former that the latter will have no problems solving. Or it might be a really important nonverifiable task, e.g., not "does this program work".

Also, I'm not sure what "defenses against distillation" is supposed to even mean.

I've never met a Silicon Valley company that decided to slow down for reasons that weren't also aligned with business interests.

These people genuinely are scared of their creations.