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Comment Re:Term Limits (Score 1) 94

California's crime rate is significantly higher than 2019 in virtually every major city. Check out Oakland and LA city crime stats, which you "forgot" to cite.

Still near record lows. Minor variations from year to year are not a trend.

Plus note that you "mysteriously" chose 1979 as the baseline instead of the far more logical 2019 which was just before your failed "defund the police" experiment started.

Why would that be "far more logical"? Crime rates vary from year to year. You need to average over five or ten years just to have a number you can do anything with. Your approach involves comparing two noisy values, so you're getting noise as the output.

Most Oakland crime rates are in about the same range as they have been for the last decade or more. Car thefts are up, presumably because of gentrification.

Thus far, there's no indication that the decision to reduce planned funding increases for police and divert it to other agencies that help people in crisis has had a meaningful impact on the crime rate, unless you think that somehow more police would have prevented car thefts, which isn't all that likely. You can't be everywhere at once.

"California's K-12 schools are only ranked lower than the rest of the country because California has a much larger non-native speaker population. When you exclude scores from people who are still learning English, it is pretty much average."

You're making excuses for the abysmal drop in California's rankings without considering the full context that the drop started after instituting self defeating policies like handing out jobs and diplomas based on identity, canceling advanced classes, deemphasizing standardized testing as "racism", mainstreaming, whole word learning, "Seattle Math", etc -- particularly in inner cities that, in California, have no natural defenses against progressive shenanigans.

Citation needed.

Similar cohorts in Florida K-12 do far better despite Florida spending half as much.

Similar cohorts in Florida don't have California's cost of living or building maintenance. Spending twice as much in California as Florida is, on a cost-of-living-adjusted basis, spending about the same amount. And this assumes your similar cohorts really are similar. Because of that cost of living difference, they probably are not so similar, because their parents have to work two jobs in California to keep a roof over their heads.

A lot of California's problems are directly caused by affordability.

"California's homeless population grew by just 3% in 2024. The national average was 18%. California is doing way better than most of the country in that area."

You are playing with date ranges again. California homelessness is up a whopping 40% over the last ten years - since it started implementing progressive decriminalization "solutions" while Florida dropped 40%.

California's homeless population was growing at a faster rate in the 2010s than in the 2020s. So it certainly sounds like those "solutions" you're complaining about actually were solutions, at least to some degree. They haven't solved the problem, because housing costs too much, but they're a start.

Meanwhile, Florida still has the nation's third largest homeless population even after that 40% drop. That's not exactly doing well. It's really all about cost of living.

Furthermore, in a dramatic reversal, and against Gavin's recommendations, California's citizens just passed statewide ballot initiatives to recriminalize repeated shoplifting and other petty crimes that encourage homelessness and contribute to overall crime increases.

Yes. It was a stupid idea, and a lot of us said it was a stupid idea at the time. But it has very little to do with homelessness, except insofar as arresting people for shoplifting has a tendency to put them in jail, where they would no longer be homeless. That's not a solution for the homelessness crisis. It is largely orthogonal. Most homeless people are not shoplifters, though they do shoplift more than average.

The reason we passed the ballot initiative is because that idiotic prior law change created a huge surge in car break-ins from people stealing things. As long as it was under $1,000, the police weren't willing to investigate it, and so you ended up with this huge organized crime network breaking into cars all over the Bay Area and pawning off the stolen goods. This was all entirely predictable.

The idea behind the original law change was well-meaning, but it ignored human nature.

"California would love to prevent wildfires, but they can't stop you from driving your gasoline-powered cars and contributing to the climate change that is fueling the droughts that have turned the state into a tinderbox. And although they are forcing power companies to improve their power lines, it takes time."

No. It dug its own grave. Power companies were prevented from clearing brush and trees in order to "save the environment".

Citation needed. If you mean the story about being fined for damaging an endangered plant species during power line maintenance in SoCal, they did the maintenance. They were fined for bulldozing the trail that led up to the work area without properly doing the environmental study and avoiding the endangered plants, not for clearing brush under the lines. Even if the endangered species had been under the lines, they still could have gotten permission from the California Department of Fish and Wildlife to transplant it away from the lines. They just would not have been allowed to blindly bulldoze it.

A critical reservoir was left empty due to similar bungling.

The critical reservoir was left empty because of scheduled maintenance. Infrastructure has to be repaired sometimes. If you don't repair it, worse things happen. And they did it during winter when fires don't usually happen. I wouldn't call that bungling. I'd call that incredibly bad luck. Maybe the maintenance took longer than it should have, and if so, there should be answers about why that is the case, but it doesn't seem like it was down because of any sort of general policy problem.

They also failed to build critically needed new reservoirs due to more bureaucratic bungling despite many years of having budgeted for them.

In Southern California? There were planned reservoirs in the Central Valley that have been pushed back because of that sort of problem, but that's hundreds of miles away. The only reservoir that could have helped was the one that was down, and only by providing water pressure. If they had been able to fly helicopters (the weather prevented this), they would have just scooped up water from the ocean. It's a lot closer than any reservoir would have been.

So consider Florida? It's trending quite well in all of the categories California struggles with.

How's that? The hurricanes seem to be getting worse and more frequent, and it has the second-highest rate of fraud in the country, behind only Georgia. (In most years, Florida has been the worst.)

Fraud has nothing to do with hurricanes.

I never said it did. But you're saying Florida is great on crime, whereas it's actually a place where the elderly to go get preyed upon by scammers. You're saying California is bad because of natural disasters while Florida is great in spite of them. See why I'm rolling my eyes now?

Your context free reference is simply designed to hide the fact that, for example, Miami is one of the only major cities that didn't "defund", and that saw its crime rate significantly drop since 2019.

I don't disagree that the "defund the police" movement resulted in many cities going too far. But the point remains that the crime rate hasn't gone up *that* much in most of California, even with those questionable decisions. And that was my point. You're giving a sky-is-falling narrative that just doesn't match reality.

As for Miami, there's no reason to believe that "defunding" versus not doing so was the reason Miami's crime rate dropped. Looking at some of the graphs, I'm pretty sure Miami's crime rate has been trending down faster than the national average for decades.

Post hoc ergo proper hoc is still a fallacy.

Not coincidentally, it has a Republican mayor that was recently reelected in a bipartisan landslide, and it benefits from having a Republican governor that was recently reelected in a bipartisan landslide.

Even if that first part true (I haven't checked), that has approximately nothing to do with the state of Florida as a whole. And no, the Republican governor was most certainly NOT reelected in a bipartisan way. See below.

Back to hurricanes: there is zero evidence that frequency has significantly increased over the last centuries. Your "increasing frequency" studies all pull the timeline trick of using a recent lull as the baseline. What is true is that we have gotten far better at predicting, tracking, reporting, and handling them. Resulting deaths have dropped by orders of magnitude despite a far higher population in their paths today.

We can't know about previous centuries. We only know recorded history. It's not a timeline trick. It's the only data we have.

How is DeSantis popular on a bipartisan basis? He has only a 10% approval rating and a 72% disapproval rating among Democrats according to a poll from a month ago.

If you want a state with a governor that is actually liked by both parties, try Kentucky.

Elections are the polls that matter most, and, as I just noted, DeSantis was reelected in a bipartisan landslide.

No, he wasn't. 59.4% to 40% is not a bipartisan landslide when only 31% of registered voters are Democrats. From those numbers, it looks like, to within the margin of error, approximately no Democrats voted for DeSantis, and slightly more independents voted for him than voted for Trump (56%).

...unless your definition of "bipartisan" means "Republican and Libertarian", in which case, maybe.

Comment Re:The US withdraws from the world stage? (Score 1) 216

Blue dogs plus a handful of Republicans who served on the January 6th committee, neither of whom are still in office, and maybe some RINO-Libertarians that run as Republicans, such as Rand Paul. But yeah, most of the actual Republicans that I have any respect for either died or left the party a long time ago.

Comment Re:What could possibly go wrong? (Score 2) 216

If 7 million people died from COVID-19 from 2019 until now then that's a smaller percentage of the population than other pandemics, and this time period ranks as undoubtedly above the norm but not wildly so if we lump all deaths from flu and pneumonia together. Is it "fair" to lump COVID-19 in with other more common viral disease? Maybe, maybe not, but we have been lumping viral diseases together statistically for a long time.

Percentage-wise, it's about 1% of the known cases, which while less than, for example, polio, is still rather alarming. And during the pre-vaccine period, it was several times that high.

The biggest problem was that hospitals couldn't keep up with the rate of incoming patients and didn't know how best to treat them, often making things worse instead of better with unnecessary intubation. Your risk of dying from COVID was way worse during that initial surge than afterwards.

There was a lot of things wrong with the response to COVID-19, and I can certainly see how WHO and China only made matters worse by putting international politics above public health. Maybe withdrawing funds from WHO is going too far but they need to have some consequences for their screw ups or we can expect a repeat event in the future.

There were some things wrong with the response, sure. In particular:

  • Multiple U.S. government administrations failed to replenish the national medical stockpiles.
  • A whole bunch of idiot politicians encouraged people to not comply with mask mandates, which made the spread worse.
  • Common sense rules, like requiring all restaurant and retail workers to have N95 masks available to them at no cost (and to mandate that they wear them while on the job) were ignored.
  • Lockdowns were mostly trying to get the horse back into the barn, rather than preventative, which meant they were often useless. A swift and immediate two-week worldwide lockdown probably could have prevented the pandemic entirely, but nobody was willing to do that at the time. By the time most states and countries acted, too many people were infected, which meant you had the economic harm from the lockdown, but still got almost as many deaths as if you had done nothing.
  • Delays reporting the existence of the virus made containment difficult, if not impossible.

None of those had anything to do with the WHO. There's really not much that the WHO could have done beyond what they did. They can't force China to be more open. They can't force countries to react quickly to an emerging pandemic. They can't force knee-jerk reactionaries to stop ignoring science in the name of protecting their right to get other people sick. The evidence is pretty clear that it wasn't the specific policies that affected COVID mortality, but rather the willingness to adapt to new information. Areas that adapted more quickly and followed the rules, whatever they were at the time, had statistically significantly lower mortality, with a high degree of confidence. And the likely reason for this is because those areas reacted sooner, before the case count was ridiculously high.

Besides, this hasn't ever been about the WHO screwing up, because apart from not being more critical of China, they really didn't screw up. Trump is mostly mad because the U.S. provides such a big chunk of the WHO's budget and other countries don't pay their fair share. While a legitimate complaint, shutting off that funding just means that a whole lot more people are going to die from preventable illnesses around the world. It's a really dirtbag thing to do.

Comment Re:this is why tech bros backed trump (Score 1) 98

as many people have heard, the Biden administration pissed off the tech bros by telling them there will only be a few big players and the fed was going to control them.

No, the tech bros want there to be only a few big players, just as long as they are those players. The leaders of those companies don't want government regulation, but most of their employees probably do.

Comment Re: Do you think saying that will advance your goa (Score 2) 66

"What exactly are you hoping to accomplish by throwing insult soup at Republicans on a website where most commenters skew left anyway?"

It's been a long time since that was true. The Reich wing low information boot lickers post here just as much as anyone now. I find that moderation is still slightly in favor of reality based comments, but only slightly.

Comment Re: it doesn't work like that (Score 1) 216

We need a trump vaccine. One that works, not the Constitution, which apparently doesn't.

But the vaccines were not Trump's accomplishment. He reduced testing requirements as he was asked to do, as any president would have. But he ordered ZERO doses up front, which means he applied ZERO dollars to the problem. Dolly Parton literally did more to promote a vaccine than Trump did.

Comment Re: Trump revisionism (Score 2) 216

You still don't understand that having more infected people come into the country faster meant a faster spread, so no. There is no chance that people will understand how this works.

Comment Re: Trump revisionism (Score 1) 216

No, he fucking well did not.

Trump prohibited FOREIGN NATIONALS from coming into the country from SOME COUNTRIES. He did NOT close the border, ever.

You traitors have only lies to work with, and we can all see them.

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