Comment Re:Transition (Score 1) 119
Simplistic insightless conclusion is simplistic and insightless.
Simplistic insightless conclusion is simplistic and insightless.
They read at the level of 12 year olds? I doubt that. Just like their big cult leader, I think they do not read at all.
That would be a very nice move, but only if they attach a museum featuring the Trump/Epstein files.
Well, turns out that the "chief dealmaker" lacks even basic knowledge about economic factors and how things really work in the business space. If you have solution that is far superior on cost, it will be used.
Indeed. Trump may have done really well in addressing the problems of climate change. Obviously, and due to his persistent total incompetence and lack of a clue, he did intend the total opposite.
Anybody arguing with absolute numbers instead of per-capita regarding greenhouse gasses is just a big fat and easily spotted liar. You qualify.
It sure does. For everybody not doing it.
And yes, the tools are changing. Learn to use the new tools, alongside your old ones.
Make sure to stay good with the old tools. With the abysmally bad business numbers that the "new" tools have almost 4 years (!) in, they will not be around much longer. They would have to increase profits 10x (with constant cost) to even break even now and that is not going to happen.
We can expect to have small, specialist LLMs around in the future, but nowhere near with the power (and the problems, hopefully) of current mainstream LLMs. But that is is. Essentially better search, better autocomplete, but nothing that will write a whole real program for you. And efficiency gains? Expect less than 5% long-term.
Betteridge's Law is not actually a law. It is a corollary to Sturgeons Law, which says "Ninety percent of everything is crap".
which can just be highly marketable bullshit
That describes LLM-type AI very nicely. To a lesser degree, it did also describes the 5GL project (which aimed to replace programmers some 40 years ago and which had just resoundingly failed when I studied CS) and most other AI hypes. This one will not be different. Yes, something useful always comes out, but maybe 5% of what gets promised and sold.
Programmers are not going away. But the next AI Winter is going to be an ice-age after the incredible crap they pulled this time.
As usual Elon is full of crap.
I think nothing like that will happen. More likely
1. General LLMs will go away because they never reached profitability.
2. Some big names in IT will vanish or become irrelevant because they fired to many people and lost too much institutional knowledge.
3. Those that made sure they have real skills will have no trouble finding good employment. But they will remember who sacked too many people before, see 2.
4. But something will need to be done about the mid and lower skilled. "Work" as wealth distributor will stop working.
Without a solution to (4), society will collapse.
Incidentally, people working 60 hours or more per week produce significantly less value overall than those working 40 hours. In fact, for mental workers peak absolute (not per hour) performance is known to be at around 32h/week or work. These are very old and very reliable numbers. Too many "managers" just do not even know the very basics of their jobs though.
The opposite may be the case: They cannot function anymore. They may even have committed suicide. But giants die slowly, so it may take some time to become obvious and then some more to happen.
Startups are generally crap. Only a small number ever becomes profitable. Employment conditions are bad. Payment is bad.
Time to take stock. Go home with some office supplies.