Comment Re:My Experience (Score 1) 82
Well, if you mean the mean for average, and you weigh the capabilities in the "right" way, that would mean we already have an AGI. But I think that's clearly not what most people mean.
Well, if you mean the mean for average, and you weigh the capabilities in the "right" way, that would mean we already have an AGI. But I think that's clearly not what most people mean.
Look up "Jagged capabilities". That's where we are so far. And if you go back a couple of decades, a calculator could do math a lot faster and more accurately than you could.
A claim of "AGI" is a claim that the weakest of it's jagged capabilities is still stronger than that of the average human, and I don't believe we'll see that this year.
Expect a time delay. Some have hypothesized that it will happen overnight, but to me this has always seemed unreasonable. I expect a transition period of years. Being an AGI doesn't automatically generate the CPU cycles.
We have NOT had AGI, and I'll be really surprised if the OpenAI offering is one. What we've had is tools that are very good for certain specialized tasks. One characteristic that all of the tasks it's be exceptionally good at is that it's easy to validate the answer after you get it. (P == NP?)
When you get to tasks that aren't easy to validate, then it gets a LOT weaker. And you've to to be certain that it isn't just fabulating...i.e. giving you an answer because you asked it to do so, even though it doesn't have a good guess at what the answer should be.
Note that, e.g., AIs that generate protein folding predictions aren't necessarily accurate, they're giving you a best guess, or a series of probable guesses. I'm not counting those as "easy to validate", because currently the AI, itself, can't do the validation. But they're quite useful, as the good models do about as well as a human expert, but a lot faster and cheaper...however you must NOT skip the validation step. (People can't make accurate predictions in this domain either.)
Audacity has been on a very long journey to modernize itself. It wouldn't shock me to learn that they shipped it with functions that are being most widely used or easiest to carry over just to get over the hurdle of getting a major release out the door. It's a beloved tool; I know a bunch of people for whom it's a production linchpin, and I think the developers working on are aware of the number of edge cases where only some tiny fraction of their users make use of a feature. Those people can stay on version 3 for now.
IIRC, a lot of what needed to happen with Audacity was an overall change in user interfaces, which required a lot of deep thought about how people interact with the application. It may be that some of the unhandled features just don't align with the current user experience.
Ok, I won't lie. The Hans I know is actually Swiss, and of at least average height.
We said they couldn't operate that site in the US, and in the process gave up any authority over it. At least so far as I know.
"Indecision is the basis of flexibility" -- button at a Science Fiction convention.