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Comment Re:2028 is probably too early but not by that much (Score 1) 32

People often overestimate short-term tech improvement and underestimate medium to long-term improvement.

Most investors don't want a long-term payoff, they have other options that are more likely to pay off in the shorter term. I doubt most quantum investors would accept a 40-year return if they knew that was the future.

Comment Re:Functional unemployment is 20% (Score 1) 169

President Harry S. Truman proposed universal health insurance in 1945, where workers would pay a fee or tax and the government would then pay the doctor or hospital of the patient's choice

The AMA claimed this was "socialism" because the federal government controlled the money.

Um ... that kind of program literally is socialism.

Now, you may like socialism ... or this particular kind of socialist program ... but that doesn't magically make it not be socialism.

Comment Re:So basically... (Score 2) 169

I think satellite data centers are colossally stupid, but I suspect the larger problem is the public's gullibility for big lies.

Now, which things ARE lies and which aren't has been delightfully co-opted by politics; what one puts on that list is *instantly* translated into political affiliation.

I can think of 3 big lies that would immediately get me labeled "stupid maga fuck".
I can think of 3 others that would likewise get me labeled "woke fag".
Amusingly, putting all 6 in a list would be cognitively negatively filtered; each "side" would only see and respond to the ones they DISagree with, in most cases as if the others weren't even present.

I think data centers in space will be inevitable WHEN WE LIVE THERE and some research to address the (large) physics challenges the context poses are a good idea. Anything above research trial scale today is dumb. But that's all noise compared to the bigger problems, this argument is only a symptom.

Comment Robbing Peter to pay Paul? (Score 1) 29

Though sending PROMISE to the moon would leave Perseverance and Curiosity -- both of which remain active on Mars -- without an Earth-based testbed, Isaacman thinks it would be worth it. "We've had years now of experience operating the two rovers on the surface of Mars,...

But the older that Perseverance and Curiosity get the more engineering baby-sitting they will need. Repurposing the test rover risks shortening their life. Judging the need based on the first half of Mars missions is insufficient. Past 50 people need a doctor much more often. Rovers are similar.

Comment Re:Ribosomes are awesome (Score 1) 59

Francis Crick calculated how long it would take for life to evolve from scratch, and concluded it would take longer than the earth has existed. In response, he developed the hypothesis of panspermia

Any such calculation is likely to be off either direction by a factor of about 10 such that the age of the Earth and age of the universe is not different enough to distinguish. And we don't know all the pathways to biogenesis such that estimating the early stages is a fuzzy art.

Panspermia is certainly a realistic possibility, as some microbes have incredible survival abilities.

Note that my early description didn't mention that the chemicals the intermediate-step proto-cells would consume and produce may be partial or full fuel for the subsequent stage(s), perhaps after being altered by the environment a bit. Having to rely on the environment to "adjust" the food supply may be why separate sub-microbes are necessary.

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