Comment Re: cool! (Score 1) 202
"The best stuff comes from China" -No One Ever
It's Toyota. They are known. They employ over 63,000 Americans already. They are good jobs. This announcement marks the start of producing batteries - not some hazy "agreement" about the future if this and if that and if the other. It's a done deal and it's a good thing.
Global warming doesn't wait for the technology to catch up.
I won't be at all surprised if Valve start selling ARM games as well as x86. I'm sure they'd like to not be tied to x86 in the future, just as these devices help to break the ties to Windows.
I'm going to make some rough approximations here.
There are difficulties in dissipating power in high speed processors. Assume that the power that can be dissipated is proportional to the area of the chip. Relative to a single active layer chip, the power that can be dissipated per layer is 1/(number_of_layers * thermal_conduction_to_coolant). Thermal conduction to coolant is dominated by copper in the heatsink and SiO2 in the chip. Copper is at least 200 times more thermally conductive than SiO2. Assume that the maximum acceptable temperature rise is 50 Kelvin across a 1 cubic centimeter copper cube; that corresponds to 200 Watts. Assume that diminishing returns occurs when the thermal drop across SiO2 equals the drop across the copper. Since they add, if we keep the limit at 50 K the limiting power is 100 Watts. The implied thickness of SiO2 is (1 cm)/200 = 50 microns. How many layers can be squeezed into 50 microns?
A brief internet search seems to yield a minimum layer thickness of 100 nm (0.1 micron) for gate logic -- (1 active layer plus many interconnect layers.) Thus 500 active layers can be squeezed into 50 microns. What happens then?
Power dissipation in CMOS logic, ignoring leakage, is proportional to freq * V^2. Let our single layer CPU performance be 1 unit, limited by 1 cm copper and running at 1.2 volts (There's very little SiO2 for the heat to pass through.) At first glance, our 500 layer CPU with same voltage limited by 1 cm copper plus 50 micron SiO2 is 1 * (500 layers) * (1/500 heat per layer) * (1/2 thermal conductivity) = 1/2 unit. Layering loses. However, that is not the whole truth. Layering allows many more transistors, thus more clever circuitry, which might be enough to improve the performance some. 3D means shorter interconnects, shorter interconnects means less capacitance, less capacitance means less power dissipation. (The other major contributor to capacitance is the FET's gate.) I can only guess how much lower heat (more speed) that allows. Maybe 1.5X? speed is then 3/4 unit. That (1/500 heat per layer) is (1/500 speed) and with CMOS reduced speed allows reduced voltage.
Over a limited range, CMOS speed is proportional to voltage. By lowering voltage, heating is reduced. Thus reducing voltage means speed does not have to be reduced to 1/500 of the single layer CPU. With a supply voltage of 1.2 x 1/10 = 0.12, speed reduced to 1/10, power per layer is reduced to 1/1000 compared to the single layer CPU. 500 layers operating at 1/10 the speed is a 50x performance improvement.
Alas, we can't do that. Huge CMOS CPUs can't be made to operate at 0.12 V, and I don't know if it will ever be possible. I'll guess and say that somewhere in the range of 0.3 V and 0.6 V will some day be practical. If it's 0.6 V, speed could be 1/250, times 500 layers = 2 units. If it's 0.3 V, speed could be 1/62.5, times 500 layers = 8 units.
The above is too optimistic, because of difficulties in controlling threshold voltage and leakage, and the difficulties in massive parallelism and massive multi-threading.
I'd like to repeat the calculations for 10 layers and 50 layers. I'd like to check my work. I've already spent about 2 hours on this reply, so I'm giving up. Have fun.
Having used wireless PC VR there's no way I'm going back to a cable. If I can play FPS games with wi-fi there's no need to have to drag a cable around and try to remember where it is so I don't trip over it or accidentally pull it out.
Hedge funds and private equity firms demurred on investing in NTP, reportedly claiming that the foundation didn't have a credible plan for improving engagement.
In my estimate, the speed improvement in AI chips is going to see the same slowdown we've already seen in CPUs: single threaded performance is almost at a standstill and multi-threaded performance is increasing much less rapidly than it used to. If this slowdown occurs, there will be less pressure to replace existing AI machines with faster AI machines. This means a longer life cycle for existing machines.
Whether new facilities continue to be built will depend upon the degree to which AI is useful, and whether AI's usefulness requires more hardware. Nobody really knows.
Good for you. Maybe Valve could have provided 2.5 Gb for those four markets across the US.
I can get gigabit here but it's twice the price of what I have and it would mostly be idle. So why pay another $1,000 a year to download Steam games a few minutes faster?
So how many people do you know who have 2.5 Gb at home?
My fibre is 150Mbps and Starlink is wi-fi so there's no reason for me to need 2.5 Gb other than VR streaming. It's not like I'm copying huge files from machine to machine inside the house.
I have four routers and five LAN switches in my house and only one 2.5 Gb port. Which is used to connect the PC to the Wi-Fi 6 router for VR streaming.
Most people will either connect the Stream Machine to their ISP router which likely only has Gigabit, or to a cheap LAN switch which likely only has Gigabit. There's no reason to give people a faster Ethernet port unless you expect 2.5+ Gb fibre to be common for Internet access in the next few years.
Valve don't have enough employees to enshitify things. They have to concentrate on making things work.
"Who alone has reason to *lie himself out* of actuality? He who *suffers* from it." -- Friedrich Nietzsche