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Comment Re:I love books (Score 1) 165

It's hard to write something that will blow peoples' minds when you're writing in a genre that's had decades of writers mining the same material. But we ought to beware of survivor bias; the stories we remember from the Golden Age are just the ones worth remembering. Most of the stories that got published back then were derivative and extremely crude. Today, in contrast, most stories that get published are derivative but very competently crafted. I guess that's progress of a kind but in a way it's almost depressing.

I think the most recently written mind-blowing sci-fi (or perhaps weird fiction) novel I've read was China Mieville's *The City & the City*, which tied with *The Windup Girl* in 2010 for Best Novel Hugo. I was impressed both by the originality of the story and the technical quality of the writing.

I recently read Ken Liu's translation of Liu Cixin's *The Three Body Problem*, which I enjoyed. In some ways it reminds me of an old Hal Clement story in which the author works out the consequences of some scientific idea in great detail, but the story also deals with the fallout of China's Cultural Revolution and the modern rise of public anti-science sentiment. So this is a foreign novel which doesn't fit neatly into our ideas about genres of science fiction. It's got a foot in the old-school hard science fiction camp and foot in the new wave tradition of literary experimentation and social science speculation camp.

Comment Re:Democrat here and yeah that was my first though (Score 4, Informative) 67

If they're moving to Tennessee it's probably just a tax Dodge.

And tax breaks in TN. From the TFA (Oracle America closes on Nashville riverfront site) referenced in TFA...

Oracle America has paid nearly $254 million for slightly more than 60 acres of Nashville riverfront property,

Oracle bought 13 parcels of industrial and vacant land on the east bank of the Cumberland River on Tuesday.

Oracle committed to paying $175 million for Metro infrastructure upgrades and a pedestrian bridge over the river in exchange for a temporary property tax break.

The Tennessean article doesn't say how much or how temporary the property tax break is.

[Larry Ellison] said Nashville is an established health center and a "fabulous place to live," one that Oracle employees are excited about.

As if Larry actually cares about employees.

Comment Re:Lack of regulation, that is how (Score 3, Insightful) 58

What they did was not illegal, and fine print at the bottom on TL;DR user agreement is what legally constitutes informed consent.

TFA notes that, in some (many?) cases, the sales agent at the dealership was signing customers up for services during the vehicle sale, despite GM policy that the customer must do this themselves, w/o telling the customer exactly what was done.

According to G.M., our car was enrolled in Smart Driver when we bought it at a Chevrolet dealership in New York, during the flurry of document-signing that accompanies the purchase of a new vehicle.

I called our dealership, a franchise of General Motors, and talked to the salesman who had sold us the car. He confirmed that he had enrolled us for OnStar, noting that his pay is docked if he fails to do so. He said that was a mandate from G.M., which sends the dealership a report card each month tracking the percentage of sign-ups.

G.M. doesn’t just want dealers selling cars; it wants them selling connected cars.

[A] G.M. spokeswoman, said that dealers are not permitted to sign customers up and that the customer must be the one to accept the terms. At my request, she provided the series of screens that dealers are instructed to show customers during the enrollment for OnStar and Smart Driver. There is a message at the top of each screen: “The customer must personally review and accept (or decline) the terms below. This action is legally binding and cannot be done by dealer personnel.”

What I can say is that, regardless of who pushed the consent button, this screen about enrolling in notifications and Smart Driver doesn’t say anything about risk-profiling or insurance companies.

Comment Re:Another one down (Score 1) 133

Well, it's like in Econ 101 when you studied equillibrium prices. At $3500 the number of units demanded is small, but if you dropped that to $1000 there should be more units demanded, assuming consumers are economically rational.

There is a tech adoption curve in which different groups of people play important roles in each stage of a new product's life cycle. At the stage Vision Pro is at now, you'd be focused on only about 1% of the potential market. The linked article calls these people "innovators", but that's unduly complementary; these are the people who want something because it's *new* whether or not it actually does anything useful. This is not irrational per se; they're *interested* in new shit, but it's not pragmatic, and the pragmatists are where you make real money.

Still, these scare-quotes "innovators" are important because set the stage for more practical consumers to follow. Perhaps most importantly, when you are talking about a *platform* like this people hungry for applications to run on the doorstop they just bought attract developers. And when the right app comes along the product becomes very attractive to pragmatists. This happened with the original IBM PC in 1981, which if you count the monitor cost the equivalent of around $8000 in today's money. I remember this well; they were status symbols that sat on influential managers' desks doing nothing, until people started discovering VisiCalc -- the first spreadsheet. When Lotus 1-2-3 arrives two years after the PC's debut, suddenly those doorstops became must-haves for everyone.

So it's really important for Apple to get a lot of these things into peoples' hands early on if this product is ever to become successful, because it's a *platform* for app developers, and app developers need users ready to buy to justify the cost and risk. So it's likely Apple miscalculated by pricing the device so high. And lack of units sold is going to scare of developers.

But to be fair this pricing is much harder than it sounds;. Consumers are extremely perverse when it comes to their response to price changes. I once raised the price of a product from $500 to $1500 and was astonished to find sales went dramatically up. In part you could say this is because people aren't economically rational; but I think in that case it was that human judgment is much more complex and nuanced than economic models. I think customers looked at the price tag and figured nobody could sell somethign as good as we claimed our product to be for $500. And they were right, which is why I raised the price.

Comment Re:Well, there's one logical consequence (Score 1) 149

People will start to think like professional athletes: I have to earn a life's wage by the time I'm 35, because after that I won't have an income anymore.

To be fair, an athlete is more likely to experience a career-ruining injury than the average worker and then be unable to continue in that career. I'm not trying to justify the insane salaries many seem to get, but can understand why they'd want to earn while they can. Of course, being responsible with those earnings would go a long way toward future financial security. (Good advice for everyone.)

Submission + - Voyager 1 Is Communicating Well Again (scientificamerican.com)

fahrbot-bot writes: Scientific American is reporting that after [5] months of nonsensical transmissions from humanity’s most distant emissary, NASA’s iconic Voyager 1 spacecraft is finally communicating intelligibly with Earth again.

When the latest communications glitch occurred last fall, scientists could still send signals to the distant probe, and they could tell that the spacecraft was operating. But all they got from Voyager 1 was gibberish—what NASA described in December 2023 as “a repeating pattern of ones and zeros.” The team was able to trace the issue back to a part of the spacecraft’s computer system called the flight data subsystem, or FDS, and identified that a particular chip within that system had failed.

Mission personnel couldn’t repair the chip. They were, however, able to break the code held on the failed chip into pieces they could tuck into spare corners of the FDS’s memory, according to NASA. The first such fix was transmitted to Voyager 1 on April 18. With a total distance of 30 billion miles to cross from Earth to the spacecraft and back, the team had to wait nearly two full days for a response from the probe. But on April 20 NASA got confirmation that the initial fix worked. Additional commands to rewrite the rest of the FDS system’s lost code are scheduled for the coming weeks, according to the space agency, including commands that will restore the spacecraft’s ability to send home science data.

Also: Voyager 1 is sending data back to Earth for the first time in 5 months and NASA's Voyager 1 spacecraft finally phones home after 5 months of no contact

Comment Re:Only to investors, right? (Score 2) 28

Technically speaking the crime of fraud has three elements: (1) A materially false statement; (2) an intent to deceive the recipient; (3) a reliance upon the false statement by the recipient.

So, if you want to lie to people and want to avoid being charged with fraud, it's actually quite simple. You lie by omission. You distract. You prevaricate (dance around the facts). You encourage people to jump on the bandwagon; you lead them to spurious conclusions. It's so easy to lie without making any materially false statements that anyone who does lie that way when people are going to check up on him is a fool.

Not only is this way of lying *legal*, it happens every time a lawyer makes an closing statement to a jury. It's not a problem because there's an opposing counsel who's professionally trained to spot omissions and lapses of logic and to point them out. But if a lawyer introduces a *false statement of fact* to a trial that's a very serious offense, in fact grounds for disbarrment because that can't be fixed by having an alert opponent.

We have similar standards of truthfullness for advertising and politics because in theory there's competition that's supposed to make up for your dishonesty. In practice that doesn't work very well because there is *nobody* involved (like a judge) who cares about people making sound judgments. But still, any brand that relies on materially false statements is a brand you want to avoid because they don't even measure up to the laxest imaginable standards of honesty.

Now investors have lots of money, so they receive a somehat better class of legal protections than consumers or voters do. There are expectations of dilligence and duties to disclose certain things etc. that can get someone selling investments into trouble. But that's still not as bad as committing *fraud*, which is stupid and therefore gets extra severe punishment.

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