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Comment: You are underestimating it (Score 2) 228

by aepervius (#49766795) Attached to: Greece Is Running Out of Money, Cannot Make June IMF Repayment

it will be a long and hard period (perhaps even 10 years) of adaptation

You are *severly* udnerestimating it. It is not only that greece wll have tod efault, but also that greece will still be noted as junk as far as bond goes so will not be able to borrow again at good rate EVEN after default, but also that now that greece is outside of the eurozone, it will have to either junk their own currency so far down the rabbit hole to make export / import not kill them that the inflation in the subsequent decades (note the plural) will take a long time to stabilize the economy. And once out of the eurozone , guess what ? Greece will STILL have to have cut back on cost or have extreme inflation , maybe hyper inflation and their own bank default, if they start issuing bond on their own currency and spend like no tommorow.


Greece is a warning to France or even spain, italy and other of the eurozone with ramping up debt : get your table cleaned or it might get burn down as a sanitisation process by others.

Comment: Re: Minimum Wage (Score 1) 1080

by nbauman (#49766647) Attached to: Los Angeles Raises Minimum Wage To $15 an Hour

Let's assume per capita GDP is a meaningful measure of the country's economy. Another measure of the country's economy is the equality or distribution of income.

I'd rather live in a country with more equality of income, even if it had a lower per capita GDP. (And some economists argue that more equality would produce a higher per capita GDP.)

Since we can't compare alternative Americas, empirical examination of the data is the best evidence we have.

I'm saying that other industrial countries have higher minimum wages, greater equality, and still have high production and a pretty good quality of life.

The difference between a per capita GDP of $55,000 a year and $45,000 a year is not that dramatic. The difference between a country in which people are left to die of treatable diseases because they can't afford health care http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/1... and a country where everyone gets needed health care is dramatic.

I don't care about high unemployment, if you also have a German- or Scandinavian-style social safety net, so that unemployed people can still maintain a comfortable life. In Germany, unemployed workers are paid almost as much as they are when employed. Some of them take additional training during their down time. Some of them were go on vacation. That's fine with me. The economy doesn't collapse just because you have 10% of the workforce on the dole.

I had friends in California when Reagan was governor. They were able to go on welfare, get enough to live on, go to the California state university system free, and get a college degree. California got a lot more scientists and engineers just as Silicon Valley was developing. I think that's good.

The US does have a per capita GDP of about $10,000 more than Germany ($45,000 vs. $55,000). OK.

Suppose you had 2 countries:

Country A has a per capital GDP of $55,000, but the distribution is unequal.

If you divide the country into quintiles, people in each category are:

Bottom 1/5 $13,750 a year

Next 1/5 $27,500

Next 1/5 $55,000

Next 1/5 $110,000

Top 1/5 $220,000

(which is roughly the actual income distribution in the US.)

Country B has a GDP of $45,000. But there is more equality. The distribution is:

Bottom 1/3 $22,500

Middle 1/3 $45,000

Top 1/3 $90,000

Which would you prefer? In country A, you have 1 chance in 5 of being in third-world poverty. ($13,750 is the per capita GDP of China.)

I'd prefer country B. In country B, I'm guaranteed a comfortable life.

Of course other countries have higher GDP per capita http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L... All of the modern industrial countries are clustered in about the same range.

Besides, most of that $55,000 per year per capita GDP in the US doesn't go to me. It goes to people at the top of the income distribution, and since 1980 it's been going disproportionately to the people at the very top of the income distribution.

It's like the economist's joke: Bill Gates walks into a bar. The average income in that bar goes up to $100 million a year.

Comment: Re:Germany should pay war reparations for WWII (Score 1) 228

by Tom (#49766645) Attached to: Greece Is Running Out of Money, Cannot Make June IMF Repayment

Scotland most likely is not the full legal successor to the tribes of that time.

Germany, however, is. And has made a big point of it. Western Germany for decades considered itself morally superior to Eastern Germany because it announced itself loud and clear as the legal successor of the Third Reich and the Weimar Republic and basically the heir in the whole line of german states.

Can't have your cake and eat it.

Comment: Re:Great Recession part II? (Score 1) 228

by Tom (#49766639) Attached to: Greece Is Running Out of Money, Cannot Make June IMF Repayment

Since that time, all the other banks have divested themselves of Greek bonds (and have been recapitalized by the ECB). There is no worry of contagion this time, because no one expected Greece to repay anything, and they prepared appropriately. The European governments are laughing as Greece falls over the edge.

You see what you did there, yes? European government are laughing because of sentence #1 -- the banks are saved and taxpayers will pay the bill. Just ten years ago, that would have been the most strange reason for a government to laugh that anyone can imagine. Today, strangely, everyone accepts it as perfectly normal.

but the major problem is not having enough money to pay their bills.

They have enough money to pay their bills. They don't have enough money to pay the bills and the debt burden. And they've basically been asking "we're drowning, can you stop pushing us under the water so we can take a few breaths?" - but the bureaucrats don't understand appeals to humanity and insist on the rules and contracts and deadlines.

If you want to watch for a time to worry, the time will be when Germany, or France, or the United States can no longer borrow. Then there will be another 2008.

No.

Greece is the example that is being made to cow all of us into compliance, so that exactly that won't happen. When the time comes for the banks to plunder one of the big countries, we will all remember what happened to Greece and will accept the chains.

Especially in Germany, the traitors we call a government have been singing the song of "you have to make concessions" and recently "there are no alternatives" for many years. I remember a time when "there are no alternatives" would have been a shame for a politician to say and he would've been forced to leave politics because finding those alternatives is basically his job. Nobody needs a government whose only activity is to blindly follow wherever circumstances take them.

Comment: Re:They're bums, why keep them around (Score 5, Interesting) 228

by Tom (#49766611) Attached to: Greece Is Running Out of Money, Cannot Make June IMF Repayment

the funny thing is that the "austerity measurements" are just measurements to make the country not use more money than they have

The funny thing is that Greece already has its budget balanced better than most other countries. What is crushing it is the debt burden, not the income vs. expenses equation.

But instead of speaking about abstract entities, how about we speak about people. All these countries, banks, economic systems and so on are not a purpose in themselves, aren't they? Let's speak about what from a humanity perspective we would rather see: A bank going bankrupt, or a country?

We've all become slaves to the financial system, and the Greek are simply the unlucky slave who is getting the whip to show the rest of us what happens if we don't comply. So strange that so many of us are total imbeciles and root for the whipmaster, not understanding that with a small change in fortunes, it could be their back that's being skinned.

Comment: Re:I have an idea (Score 1) 228

by Tom (#49766585) Attached to: Greece Is Running Out of Money, Cannot Make June IMF Repayment

I'm starting to think the citizens are the laziest, most needlessly entitled people in the world

Largely because a big propaganda machine wants you to think that way.

The retirement age in Greece is 65, same as in most of Europe, and they already agreed to raise it to 67.

But the real issue isn't that, but why anyone thinks its a problem. Austrias average retirement age is 58. Which, incidentally, is the same as what lead to the myth of the 55 year old pensioner. You could retire with full benefits in Greece at 58, if you had worked for 35 years. With some easy math you'll understand it means you started work before you were 23 and were never out of a job. Most likely, you were in a craftsman or untrained job, doing physical labor. At 58, you've either made career and continue to work or your body is spent.

55 can only be explained as people mixing truth with lies. You could retire with partial benefits at 55, again the same as many other european countries.

And again, the real issue isn't this at all. If you have considerable unemployment in your country, raising the retirement age does squat nothing for your economy, it will simply shift the burden, because for every old person going out of a job, you already have a young person who could take it and you're preventing it by keeping the old person longer.

Comment: Re: Great Recession part II? (Score 1) 228

by Cyberax (#49766503) Attached to: Greece Is Running Out of Money, Cannot Make June IMF Repayment
You are a moron. Fiat currency has nothing to do with the 2008 crisis. It could have happened just fine if people used gold or live rabbits as the currency. The whole problem was caused by a huge shadow banking system that essentially allowed to use private debts as if they were a currency. And since private debts are unbounded and uncontrolled, the amount of this "currency" grew without bounds. Until it crashed, trying to cross over to the world of real money when people started to cash CDOs.

Comment: Re:Great Recession part II? (Score -1) 228

by jcr (#49766425) Attached to: Greece Is Running Out of Money, Cannot Make June IMF Repayment

It's almost universally acknowledged that the GFC was caused by a LACK of regulation in the US mortgage market

Nope. We were regulated right into this mess. The Fed shit out a never-ending supply of magic rubber inflatobucks, holding interest rates below the inflation rate. The bubble was a symptom, not a cause.

-jcr

Comment: Re:This will get thrown out... (Score 1) 111

by tepples (#49765839) Attached to: Oculus Founder Hit With Lawsuit

"IP" is not any sort of legal construct.

Intellectual property is a category including copyright, patent, trademark, trade secret, and right of publicity. It has meant that in the United States Code since 1996 when Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act became law.

Do you mean "patent"? Why don't you say "patent"?

Because a single product may be covered by interlocking or overlapping copyrights, patents, trademarks, and trade secrets that are licensed as a package.

It is not well to be thought of as one who meekly submits to insolence and intimidation.

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