We've all seen for a while how the AI bubble has led to increasingly irrational market behavior. Nvidia priced higher than the entire pharma industry combined , OpenAI just churning through insane amounts of money while ranting incoherently about trillion dollar data centers. Microsoft just rolling out unprecedented data centers, all for a product that the public by and large appears to resesent and business companies struggle to figure out how to extract any sort of productivity out of it.
But its when the abstract market signals start reifying into real world failures that the bed officially shits itself. In the last major crash, that was when people started failing mortgages toppling the subprime house of cards. In the dot com crash, when a number of billion dollar companies just failed stupidly (pets dot com etc).
I think the tipping points gonna come down to RAM. Think about it. You now have a huge demand for RAM to build these budgeted super datacenters, but the budget just got blown to hell and back. Microsoft has also pivoted hard to rolling out new demand for these shitty "Copilot PCs", but the PC market is about to sieze up because computers are about to get real friggin expensive. (Google the price of 64gb of DDR5 and weep). Theres a whole ecosystem of "dumb shit as a service" companies about to discover their high memory GPU instances get real freaking expensive.
Something has to give, and I think that might be Microsoft, and possibly Amazon. Oh they wont die, Amazon and Microsoft have insane capital warchests. But both are incredibly exposed as major datacenter providers to RAM prices. Add onto that Amazons brick and mortar business taking a massive hit from tarrifs on the cheap chinese shit they sell, and finally the rock bottom consumer confidence hammering market behavior. This shits about to blow.
All because Sam "fucking" altman decided to buy 40% of the worlds RAM supply for his overblown spellchecker.