What isn't equivalent is what is used to overcome intermittency. In Germany it's coal. Here in California it's methane--yes we're failing too!
Geographical distribution of wind, an interconnected grid, and storage can be used to overcome intermittency. Storage can be hydro where practical (with definitely a decent amount of capacity in Germany) and battery.
You're wrong about that. Significantly wrong. Crazy person wrong. [plos.org]
No, I am not. Have you even bothered to read the paper you linked to? Don't just link to things and expect me to read them for you. For starters, let's look at the measures that paper uses. It employs LUIE which is hectares/TWh/year... So, in other words, hectares/TJ*hour/second/year or, in other words hectares/TJ*3600 seconds/second/31,556,926 seconds. I mean, seriously, just cancel all the unnecessary terms and numbers and you get hectares/114,079.55 Watts or, in other words 1 hectare per/114.07955 MW. I mean, seriously, it's just reinventing the concept of units of area/per Watt with pointless extra terms and a pointless multiplier. I mean, I have come to accept that the power sector measures quantity by taking Watts, which are just a rate of 1 Joule per second, then multiplying by an hour, where the time terms are really in seconds, just that an hour is 3600 seconds, so they should cancel to Joules and a multiplier. I complain about it, but I accept that those units are there. But then adding yet another time term, this time years, which is also just seconds and a multiplier!? I have a hard time accepting the intelligence and rationality of anyone who blithely use such a term. I will use it if I have to, but only under protest. In any case, in this system, they give nuclear a score of 7.1 (using the median figure), meaning that, 1 GWe actual would be the average production of a 62.24 Hectare nuclear plant, or 0.6224 K. In other words, adjusting for a 93% capacity factor, it would be 0.5788 square kilometers for a 1 GWe nameplate nuclear plant. That is obviously a load of crap since it is so far off commonly reported figures and real-world observations.
As far as wind goes, their figure is 130. So that would be 11.40 square km for actual production of 1 GWe from wind. With a 34% capacity factor, that means a nameplate 1 GWe farm would be 3.88 square km. If we look at the 11.4 square km figure, with 5 MWe nameplate wind towers (producing 1.7 MWe actual), it would take 588 to produce 1 GWe actual. So, that would be 19,388 square meters per wind tower. In other words 1.94 hectares. Or, in other words, converted to a circle, a diameter of 157 meters. The blades of a 5 MW nameplate wind turbine are only about 130 meters. That is obviously wrong. Put in other terms, it's about 5 American football fields. Clearly wrong. It also ignores the fact that, for a wind turbine, you can use the land pretty much right up to the steel of the tower itself for farming and other uses.
Looking at the paper and how they got their figures, for nuclear they claim to have used land use for uranium mining in their figures. Considering that their area per GW comes out as far lower than standard claims that do not even take mining into consideration and that the mining for a nuclear plant over its lifespan takes up considerably more space than the plant itself, that reduces the credibility of their methodology and/or data quite a lot. They are also pretty vague about certain aspects of the data collection and they don't really show much actual detail about how they came up with their numbers in the paper itself. Also, just reading that section, there's some language that makes them seem like apologists for nuclear power that you don't see in the other power sources. For Wind, among other things they mention including the area of access roads and a perimeter. This by itself is invalidating. In dual use scenarios, such as farming, access is necessary even if there is no wind farm there, so that is pretty invalidating by itself. They also mention that "For spacing area, we traced the perimeter of the entire wind farm, including all the space in between turbines.". I could basically replicate all of their work to draw more conclusions and form a very detailed rebuttal, but that would be a huge waste of time. It's clear just from these details that their study is basically invalid.
Of course, I did look into the background and affiliations of the authors a bit (though, once again, not going to spend weeks on it) and there are lots of red flags regarding the authors impartiality. I would say that I tried to outline the tree of affiliated organizations and sponsors, but it is less of a tree and more of a connected graph. The Breakthrough Institute pops up various times, there are nuclear engineering organizations, etc. Notably, Bill Gates, the subject of TFA comes up as being one entity behind this. Basically, there is a ton of evidence that this is a paper written to favor a predetermined conclusion.
If you want to argue that, you can make points from the paper and go back to the primary data, but don't just spit out numbers from the paper. Their statistics seem to be just fine, but the methods they used to generate the numbers to plug into the statistics are seriously suspect.
My conclusion is that my analysis of the land area actually consumed by wind towers is rough, but correct. Also that the area consumed by wind farms is less than the area consumed by nuclear plant in terms of actual output.
See Palo Verde in the middle of Arizona. If it can work there it can work anywhere. Also the electricity is sells is cheap.
The wikipedia entry for Palo Verde reads like ad copy: "It is a critical asset to the Southwest...", etc. Aside from that, it is not a good example, because it uses water for cooling. The water is treated sewerage mostly from Phoenix, which gets its water by unsustainably draining the Colorado, Salt, and Verde rivers. In other words, it uses a "massive source of fresh water" (the water could be used for crops instead). So no, this is actually an example of a power plant using a large fresh water source. Also, it generates 3.64 GW actual, and takes up 16.5 square km, so it is 4.54 km per GW actual in terms of land usage. So this is not a good example of low land usage or of the ability of nuclear plants to operate without large water sources. It uses 65 million gallons of water per day.
Again the goal is to minimize g CO2 per kWh which nuclear is suitable for and solar/wind have yet to do anywhere in the world.
Once again, nonsense. You are using a cherry-picked definition of "anywhere" with your own chosen granularity. I can tell because I know you will backtrack and claim that you meant "country" specifically if I pointed out individual homes or towns, etc. that get all of their power from renewables. The simple fact is that, as time goes on, the only way you will be able to support your position will be through increasing levels of contortion of the facts. It seems like, if you want to make a geographic argument, you will just end up gerrymandering your definition and pointing to regions with arbitrary boundaries that have not decarbonized their electricity generation to your arbitrary standards yet. I am not, of course, defending how long it is taking nations to decarbonize, but your claims that they have "failed" because they are en route to the goal but not there yet reek of desperation.
Cite that. Or better yet post that to electrictymaps forums so they can improve their numbers.
I am sure that electricitymaps is a worthwhile project, but it is not up to me to join their project because they don't have up to date information. I have enough other projects I am already involved in. As for a citation, here:
natural gas 17.7 TWh (3%); biofuels & waste 12.2 TWh; oil 7.0 TWh; coal 2.0 TWh.
-- World nuclear Association: Nuclear Power in France
In case you need me to. That's 17.7 TWh from natural gas equating to 3%, then biofuels/waste, oil, and coal adding up to 21.2, which is about another 3%. 3% plus 3% adds up to 6%. Burned fuels produce around 450 grams or higher of CO2 per kwh, so 6% of that is at least 27 grams of CO2 per kWh, as I wrote.
Yes. The last 12 months is a good estimate at where a country is currently at today. You can't use individual days or even months due to differences in the weather. You can also look at multyear trends to see where it is going.
You're using a rolling estimate of yearly output? One that includes last month days after the month ended
Once again, can you at least make an attempt to show that you understand why there might be problems with using "a rolling estimate of yearly output? One that includes last month days after the month ended"? I mean, aside from questions about the reliability of the information on the site, you have to see the problem with that, right?
They cite it literally on each page. They also have forums(on github I believe) where you can suggest improvements or point out mistakes.
Well, I can't seem to find it. Perhaps you can help me out? All I can find is that the data is aggregated from hourly results and that their methodology uses "raw production data from public, free, and official sources. They include official government and transmission system operators' data", but it doesn't actually list the sources, just notes that it runs it through its own algorithm which does not seem to be detailed under methodology.
It's a 7 g CO2 per kWh increase for France and a 32 g CO2 per kWh increase for Germany.
You really like to repeat yourself don't you? The point is, with such radical changes, apparently just from shifting the rolling window by one month, it should be clear that your numbers are neither precise, nor accurate. You might want to state a degree of certainty along with these numbers. Note that I wouldn't be so strict if you weren't trying to, metaphorically speaking, cut things finely with a rolling pin.
Best available data and electricity maps continually iterates and improves. The scale of the difference between France and Germany is presented in their numbers.
There is definitely an approximate order of magnitude difference between the CO2 per kWh of France and Germany. That is not in doubt. The variability of the numbers you insist on, however, is obviously wide enough that your apparent confidence in the numbers appears foolish. For example, when asked, you cited a threshold of 50 g per kWh of CO2, but we can't even say for certain that France is actually within that threshold given your own methodology.