It's basically a redux of Afghanistan with the Taliban, where a militant group takes over a failed state. Except my understanding is that they're being even more brutal.
The end result of de-emphasis on core education will result in their regressing even more, eventually leading to 'the caliphate' being seen as another North Korea type situation if they're 'lucky', and being invaded like Afghanistan if they're not extremely lucky.
Basically, AQ has been around for decades. ISIS might be mostly gone in a couple years.