Microsoft is making a huge gamble that people will learn to love Windows 8′s new, tile-centric interface.
Now that Windows 8 has reached its RTM (Release to Manufacturing) milestone, the inevitable question presents itself: just how well is the operating system going to perform on the open market?
One of the biggest potential hindrances to Windows 8 becoming a massive hit is the Windows franchise itself. Back in 2009, there was a good deal of pent-up demand for a new Windows operating system: by that point, Windows XP had been on the market for nearly a decade, and Windows Vista had met with fierce criticism from some quarters. Windows 7 turned out to be a hit, selling millions of copies and flooding Microsoft’s Windows division with revenue.
Thus the problem facing Microsoft: How to convince Windows users to rush out and buy an upgrade of a perfectly good (and relatively new, at least by Windows standards) operating system? Compounding the issue is the new Windows 8 design, with a Start screen that discards the traditional desktop interface in favor of a bunch of colorful tiles linked to applications. That revamp is supposed to make Windows 8 more touch-screen friendly, and thus optimized for tablet use; but it could turn off consumers who don’t like change, not to mention businesses that shudder at the idea of retraining their workers in new ways of doing things.
Indeed, Microsoft seems to have pinned its hopes on Windows 8 as primarily a tablet operating system, perhaps betting that will help push back against Apple and Google in the mobile space while Windows maintains its market-lock on traditional operating systems.
The company recently unveiled Surface, a Windows 8 tablet with a cover that doubles as a keyboard. Built in-house (much to the ire of some of Microsoft’s longtime manufacturing partners), the device could retail for as little as $199, at least if you buy into the highly questionable rumors floating around. Given Windows 8’s feature set, a well-made device at that price could offer serious trouble to Amazon’s Kindle Fire, Google’s Nexus 7, and even Apple’s iPad.
But if Surface and the other Windows 8 tablets fail to make an impact on the market, then Microsoft will have lost a major chance at seizing the new paradigm, which is centered on mobility and the cloud. Meanwhile, that same paradigm shift is drifting the center of peoples’ computing lives from desktops and laptops to smartphones and tablets—which puts Windows’ traditional center of strength at long-term risk.
And despite Microsoft’s recent forays into the cloud (notably with products such as Office 365 and Azure), Windows still represents one of the company’s chief revenue pillars. If that starts to crumble, there will be very serious repercussions in the hallways of Redmond.
Microsoft seems to realize the stakes. In October 2010, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer told the audience at the Gartner Symposium in Orlando, Fla. that the next version of Windows represented the company’s riskiest product bet. Watch for Microsoft to try to tip the odds in its favor with an enormous marketing budget, along with full shelves of new, shiny Windows 8 devices.
Image: Microsoft
Windows 8 is a complete failure and a total waste of money. called Dell to see if I could downgrade my computer to go back to Windows 7. They said I could call Microsoft...who in turn told me I could purchase it for almost 200$!!!! which is 200$ I would not be out if they had never created this crappy new program. IF IT ISN'T BROKEN DONT FIX IT.
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LikeMicrosoft needs WinRT to be a big hit. So they created the Surface and will sell it at a "competitive price". The problem is there are no apps for it. July 16th there were 362 apps in the Microsoft Meto App Marketplace. Buy August 15th there were 453 apps in the Microsoft Windows 8 style App Marketplace. There are now 65 days left till WinRT/Win8 and Surface hit the market. How many apps will there be? I am sure the pace will speed up, but right now we are looking at 100 new apps a month. Even if the double every month from this point on. Sept 25th will be 1000 apps and Oct 25th will be 2000 apps.
Who is going to want to spend even $200 on a WinRT Surface with 2,000 or 3,000 apps available for it? While the Nexus 7, Nook and Kindle Fire I/II have over 400,000 apps and an iPad has over 600,000 apps to choose from?
Which leads us to another point. "Windows 8 style apps". It is fine if they had to drop the word Metro, but they should have called it something else. Even "Pete" is a better name.
Customer walks into Staples and says "I would like to get a new computer running Windows 8. Will my copy of Quickbooks work with it?"
This computer here runs Windows 8. It can run both Windows 8 style apps and Windows apps. You can get Quickbooks for windows for it or run your own copy. But you cant' get Quickbooks as a Windows 8 style app. This computer here runs WinRT and Windows 8 style apps, but it cant run Windows apps.
How is this NOT going to confuse the ever living heck out of consumers? I still deal with people that don't know what version of windows they are running. Think that "MSN" is the internet and if their web browser starts with a page other than MSN then the Internet is broke.
I don't seeing this ending well for Microsoft. WinRT on Surface has to be a success for them, All I can see is it being a failure with the stink of death on it and a total failure by Christmas time.
And lord knows my kids will want a Winphone 8 with a possible 2,000 apps to choose from instead of Droid or iOS.. with hundreds of thousands of apps to choose from.
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LikeAs far as business is concerned, I think Windows 8 is a win-win with the next generation of devices.
Someone who runs a big PC for 3D modeling or coding... nothing changes for them. They won't upgrade until they get a new machine but when they do, it's business as usual with a new gigantic. start menu.
But those business folk who are on laptops.. wow. They can get a device like the Asus Transformer Book and get a tablet with a nice mobile friendly UI and a laptop with a nice friendly mouse and keyboard UI. They can operate most of their legacy stuff if they want, or they can run new full screen apps. OR both depending on their preferences or how their device is currently configured. No syncing across machines, just one device.
I think it's beautiful and as long as they can sell it as the multi-capable device, rather than what the lower quality but large number of tech bloggers are all concerned about (that their start menu is gone) than they have a winner.
Consumers.... they're already switching away from Windows. I'm not sure if this will keep them or not, it may in some cases, but Apple's marketing machine and fanboys are a true force to be dealt with, so Windows 8 may prevent further damage to the brand due to Apple converts, but from a simply marketing history, it's not likely to stop it.
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@zona802 Thanks for the RT!
@moritacocoa Thanks for your RT!