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Comment Answer: Global Trade + Navy (Score 1) 432

Why? What am I missing? Except as an export market - which is rapidly fading - I can't think of anything China needs from the US. But maybe I'm missing something.

China exports to the entire globe. They don't have a navy strong enough to protect those freighters leaving their ports. If the US continues it's path of withdrawing from patrolling the oceans, do you think China can ensure their vessels don't get seized by pirates or hostile nations? Look at what's going on with the Strait of Hormuz today. Remember, they're more dependent on that strait than we are. We're an oil exporter today. China NEEDS us. We NEED China. The same is really true of the whole world. They need the goodwill of the entire world to maintain their current lifestyle and admirable growth.

Also, the US exports a lot to China. We don't sell toys or consumer devices, but we sell industrial agricultural and industrial equipment. I'm told American beef and pork is highly regarded there. In fact, I read from many sources that's why our costs went up so much about 10 years ago...because the Chinese market was buying our beef and pork....although I've found the reporting inconsistent, FWIW.

However, bottom-line, invading Taiwan is VERY illogical. Pissing off anyone is illogical for the Chinese. They're making a killing being in the world's good graces.

Comment Why US and China won't go to war anytime soon (Score 2) 432

1. The US gets into a war with China. 2. China sends a kill signal to all Chinese vehicles in the US. 3. The US government says they'll rapidly build millions of new vehicles in the US to replace them. 4. Ooops, we don't have the factories and anyway we forgot how.

Even if the Chinese didn't kill the cars, parts would rapidly become unobtainable.

Why would China want that? The Taiwan crap is all talk. It's nearly IMPOSSIBLE to do even if the US stayed neutral. It's the Chinese equivalent of MAGA false promises like Mexico will pay for the wall...to appease their morons. Here's all the things China depends on the USA for:
1. The US Navy secures the oceans for their freighters for free. Would be a shame if pirates started sizing those tankers.
2. China imports food and the US exports a LOT, especially to China. Food prices would skyrocket if we stopped selling to them.
3. We're their biggest market, by far. If they can't sell to the US, they'd have to sell to the rest of the world at a lower cost.

Also consider that China as a male majority dwindling population. How popular would it be to send all their young men to die in Taiwan? Taiwan is FAR fiercer than Ukraine and has been preparing for that moment all their life. They have more reservists than the entire country of China has active duty personnel. The strait's waters are very unfriendly and amphibious landings are HARD even when highly skilled militaries are involved. Now consider that no one in China has ever fought in a war. Their military is nearly as corrupt as Russia's. How many of their fancy missiles will actually work when they discover that various generals raided them for parts and replaced the expensive fuel for water to sell on the black market?


We're never going to war. In the history of the world, no 2 non-neighboring countries have been more interdependent on each other. If the USA was neutral or even if the USA joined and fought against Taiwan...which will never happen, but just imagine for a thought exercise....it would be a bloodbath. Taiwan is mountainous FIERCELY independent, LOVES GUNS MORE THAN AMERICANS DO. Every citizen will be hiding in the forest and mountains waiting to kill every soldier they can. They think about this day and night. They have been preparing for that moment since birth. I can't imagine a more futile exercise than invading Taiwan by force. But regardless of Taiwan, China needs the USA and the USA needs China. We need their markets for out goods. We need their products and manufacturing expertise now (sad to say).

This is the beauty of international trade and globalization. Yeah, there are winners and losers, economically...but you can't deny that it brings about historic levels of peace.

Comment You got it wrong. They're competing to win (Score 0) 432

So China’s long game is to sell the world cheap cars and then engage a kill switch at some point?

How does that benefit anyone?

Their cars are cheap to be competitive. No one would buy BYD if it costs more than a Tesla, Toyota, or Hundai. China isn't playing 3D chess. They simply envy the auto industry of Japan and Korea and are looking to replicate it to build prosperity for their dwindling population. China isn't really competing on low-cost labor. Their labor costs are extremely similar to ours now. They compete on integration and efficiency and being business-friendly in the short term. Yeah, you risk IP theft, but the local gov will bend over backwards to ensure your permits go through if you want to invest in a factory there. There's a lot less friction building a complex factory network in China than Indiana, Ohio, Texas, or Alabama. They ran out of illiterate farmers long ago to fuel slave-wage labor. The market corrected that.

Like Japan and Taiwan before them, they start out making cheap low-end stuff and aspire to move upmarket. BYD makes prestige automobiles as well as cheap ones. The end prize for most manufacturing economies is prestige automobiles and aircraft. They don't want to make dollar store toys. They want to make the luxury car you drove to the dollar store to buy those $2 flip flops from because you forgot to pack your kid's shoes for the pool on vacation.

Comment $30/h vs 45/h + only 5-15% cost is labor! (Score 3, Insightful) 432

There's more to it than just "they're better", there's also massive disparities in labour costs, etc, because of the high cost of living in the US.

2 Facts. Chinese manufacturing labor costs about $30/h. US costs $45/h. Labor is 5-15% of the cost of a car. Ocean Freight for shipping is approx $3000 (according to Gemini). On raw labor, that should account for a 7% decrease, tops. The number compounds because 60-65% of the cost is materials...but most of those steps are fully automated, so for most parts in a car, I don't think labor is a huge cost when it's stamped in an automated facility. The math does get complex...but regardless, the numbers remain pretty small no matter how you compute them. Also, without tariffs, shipping a car from China is EXPENSIVE!!!!

You're a few decades too late. China competes on integration, not low-cost labor. Chinese manufacturing costs similar to US on a pure labor perspective given that US workers are traditionally much more productive. Most of the Chinese laborers were plucked from poor villages and many are illiterate. US labor typically has an edge based on skills and productivity. Even with the lower wages, the end cost gets to be pretty similar.

In the beginning, you were correct, they'd hire workers for dirt cheap, but their cost of labor went up dramatically as they ran out of poor villagers to exploit.

China is honestly not that cheap anymore. They're just really efficient, well integrated, and do everything. They may be our adversary, but there's a lot to admire and learn from. I know for consumer electronics, you can do every step within an hour's drive. For advanced things, like phones, they have to import chips from Japan or Korea, but the injection molding, assembly, metalwork: typically is done within a few blocks of each other. I haven't researched BYD, but I imagine the majority of their components, outside some camera sensors and RAM and all manufactured similarly. The glass is manufactured in the same city as the frame and upholstery and assembled just a few miles down the road.

The labor aspect is a minor detail. Put simply, China wants to make good cars. They want to be Japan, not Bangladesh. The gov takes it very seriously and is pushing industry to compete and catch up. Many details of that are problematic, but in the end, China doesn't want to be your sweatshop. They want to be a premium brand, like Japanese companies. They know they have a huge demographics problem, the worst in history thanks to a combo of their one child policy and their regressive cultural values that make a girl a liability and a son an investment. They cannot be your sweatshop for much longer, but they can take Japan's role and design cool things to be manufactured either in the market they serve, like Japan and Korea do by opening factories in the USA or outsourcing most pieces to low-cost countries like Bangladesh and maybe someday parts of Africa, hence so many of their investments there.

Comment Their goal was when you were away from home (Score 2) 48

Cloud gaming was meant for PC and mobile users who wanted to play XBox games on hardware that couldn't support it. However, I never tried it. I have Comcast, super shitty internet, so it's not an option....maybe folks in Korea or someplace with decent internet? It always seemed like a solution looking for a problem to me....maybe justification for an accounting scam to buy some Azure services? IDK. The XBox line is a bit rudderless at the moment, but they still have a lot of potential. But Cloud Gaming?...I never had interest and never knew anyone who did.

Comment Re:"Just gambling" is not a valid excuse (Score 1) 76

> As soon as he had insider information, it becomes criminal. Somehow this person does not strike me as very smart.

Are you a lawyer with expertise in laws about training and gambling? It might be criminal. It might not be. It probably depends on the exact wording of the laws.

Somehow, a person who makes such pronouncements without the relevant expertise and knowledge is not so smart.

Comment It's been 4 years! Where's the entrepreneurship?? (Score 5, Interesting) 129

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said AI adoption is "non-negotiable" for countries, comparing rejecting it to refusing electricity a century ago and predicting it will unleash an unprecedented boom in entrepreneurship.

You've been out for 4 years! Where is all the entrepreneurship? Where are all the startups leveraging AI to take over existing non-AI industries? There were several major startups revolutionizing non-computing segments of the business world 4 years after the introduction of commercial internet (1999)...as well as the iPhone (2011). All I hear about are pick and shovel vendors making money off FOMO. Every business who invests in AI is unsure if it's saving them money.

To date, I can say AI has accomplished the following:

1. Given AI-is-my-religion zealots a cool toy to play with and dream about a future whenever this shit starts actually working
2. Made money for a half dozen players in a circular economy ponzi scheme
3. Been used to AI-wash layoffs without any evidence and suppress wages, masking big tech's challenges with rising interest rates.
4. Made the cost of devices we want and actually use skyrocket.

AI has made the future pretty bleak, personally. It doesn't work and is causing a RAMpocalypse...and if it ever actually does, it will cause a white-collar-jobpocalypse and massive social unrest. However, don't take my word for it.

After 4 years, Steve Jobs didn't have to go on press tours to convince people of the utility of an iPhone. No one had to sell the internet as a useful thing in 1999. The fact that Sam Altman has to sell his ware so hard shows even he's not confident about his product. We've all used ChatGPT Sam...We know what it is. We weren't impressed enough to pay for your massive investment to build it.

Comment Makes sense (Score 3, Interesting) 10

Good for Dell and HP. I hope they use this windfall to strengthen their core businesses and realize that AI is a bubble that can't pop soon enough. Obviously people will buy AI servers after the pop, AI is here to stay, but this massive surge isn't long for the world. HP is the biggest disappointment in tech, rivaling Oracle for the least respected company in Silicon Valley, despite such a great history. They seem to do nothing well. Their printers are still good, but poisoned by a strategy of exploiting customers for toner/ink, including forcing DRM chips to ensure you spent $400 for a set of toner cartridges when they're available 3rd party for about $60 now. HP computers? fuck that...they're overpriced and mostly suck...occasionally I'll notice a well built laptop from them, but it almost seems like an accident.

Dell is also just very disappointing to me. I always thought they'd be better than they are today. Their monitors are good and their offerings are OK...but they never seem to compete with the leaders. They have the resources to compete and take on Apple, but they don't bother. They let Apple eat their lunch in the business world. From what I know, few companies ever gave out apple laptops 15+ years ago. Now in my area, most serious software companies give out macbook pros and even many businesses are doing it now for regular office workers.

I switched over to Mac 10 years ago from desktop Linux and am happy with it. I switched to the Apple ecosystem 5 years ago...all my devices will be coming from Apple for the next few years, but....fuck if I wish there were good alternatives. I with it was a hard choice. I wish Dell offered something 90% as good for 75% of the cost, like they used to 15 years ago. Now it's like 75% as good for 90% of the cost.

No matter who I buy from, competition is good. I want Apple to earn my dollars, not win by default like they're doing today. Also, Apple isn't really a business hardware company. They sell luxury products that are good at business tasks...mostly because the business players fell asleep at the wheel and are selling you laptops that are nearly the same as they were 20 years ago, only without removable batteries. The world needs a serious business computing provider. Dell could easily be that, but they just don't seem interested in being anything beyond mediocre.

I preferred it when Apple computing products were an indulgence and not the only (serious) game in town.

Comment UX is a solved problem (Score 1) 92

Has the interface changed? The icons look different, but ever facet of mac and iPhone and iPad is the same. If someone was in a coma for 15 years, they could figure out any Apple device instantly. If anything, I think they'd be shocked at how little has changed. FaceId is new...beyond that?...it's all the same. UX is largely a solved problem. There hasn't been a meaningful change in decades. Nothing about interfaces today is any better than it was 15 years ago. So really, I have no fucking clue what you're talking about.

If anything, Apple has always had pretty mediocre UX. If you think it's good?...try the non-MS alternatives. I've used most of the Linux Desktop variants, Apple, MS, Android, various other devices, like consoles and media players....I've NEVER been impressed with anything Apple put out, software-wise. If anything, they reduce functionality to make things look prettier and I have to guess how to do things. It's usually more obvious on Linux.

Look at XCode. Have you ever heard anyone praise it? I haven't...I'm a fucking professional software engineer. No one uses it unless they have to. I tried using it...it was awful...slow, weird, buggy. I COULD use it for work, but no one does. I don't see IntelliJ or VSCode emulating them and those are the leaders, by far. It is not a well designed product and is not very popular.

Reminders is my most used app. I can make it work, but it does suck. It lacks a LOT of basic features any commercial app would have. I have learned to just adapt to Apple's bad UX design and lack of functionality for the sake of not forcing my family to install new programs just so we can plan things, like trips, together.

Look at Apple Music?...you'd think they'd get that one right, but holy shit did they fuck that up royally. They were probably the newest entry to a crowded field and somehow made the single worst, most unusable product in their entire catalog...and they historically had many ties to many famous musicians...music is kinda their thing.

However, Cook really kept the UX of the past and just added features in a consistent manner. Since I started using Apple products, no software got worse and everything is a lateral move or slightly improved. Additionally, when I started, crashes were routine....now I can't remember the last time I had to restart an app to work correctly or had it crash on me.

You're welcome to be hipster and tell me how much you liked Apple before they were cool...but yeah...I'll stand by my defense of Cook over Jobs any day. I found Jobs and ESPECIALLY Ive to be greatly overhyped. I've never been impressed with Jobs and Ive has consistently horrified me. I am sure if I knew more about Jobs, I'd gain some respect for him...but Software UX? No...Apple's software is usually less usable than their competitors IMHO.

Comment Apple products are mainstream now + fn over form (Score 1) 92

This is extremely hard to believe. If you didn't like Apple products under Jobs, you shouldn't like them now. You lie. A bigger battery and ports isn't that much of a difference.

Simple response: Jobs/Ive: form over function. Cook was the reverse. Each new design iteration he brought increased the functionality in some small way. Nothing got worse under him.

Steve Jobs era: Macs were an irrational cult purchase and no engineers bought them until he went to Intel processors. His era was mostly PowerPC...REALLY overpriced laptops, everything was expensive and impractical...my actual work tools were not available until the very end. I ran Desktop Linux for coding and Windows for video games. Windows also sucked a lot less then. Regarding phones? I always like androids better. There was always an Android model for slightly cheaper with better performance and a better camera. Apple was a shitty luxury cult and you would have had to be stupid to buy their shit for most of it. It was very irrational. You're paying A LOT more for worse hardware and worse software and limited functionality during the PowerPC era. Also, EVERYTHING was proprietary and designed to be overpriced and not work well with others. Android used open standards like micro-USB and later on USB-C.

Today? Macbooks are a decent value. They're not that overpriced compared to equivalent models and most windows laptops just can't match the quality or support. There is a rational argument for Macbooks today. They're not for EVERYONE, but you can justify it based on objective features and not just "people will think I'm cool at Starbucks." All apple connectors, except MagSafe3, are open standards...and I REALLY love all things magsafe, so I don't care. The iPads are unmatched in the industry now that Google has given up on making tablets. I love my iPad. However, I switched to an iPhone 5 years ago, initially because my wife was sick of me not getting her video attachments of the kids. I resisted for a long time, but eventually Google Pixels got more and more mediocre and expensive and iPhones just steadily improved and remained consistent.

When work gave me a macbook to get me off linux MANY years ago, the software was kinda cool, but not reliable and very limited. I liked not dealing with cygwin AND being able to use outlook...but the whole seamless apple ecosystem was really oversold. I saw poorly thought out apps that crashed, were unreliable, and. mostly sucked....but each year, they got a little better. Today?...I like the ecosystem and use it exclusively. I only use Apple apps on my personal laptop.

To me, this is Tim Cook...the gradual improvement of software. Small, unsexy details, like the fact that 15 years ago Notes was unreliable about syncing and today, I can't remember the last time it had an issue or crashed on me...or that they added tables....their table functionality sucks, but it's good enough for my limited use cases and got me off Google Docs.

Tim Cook wasn't about chasing fame or getting in the press, but each generation got a little better (after 2016, which I blame those macbook pros squarely on Jony Ive). My 3yo work laptop is better than my 6yo personal laptop in every way. I have to replace my personal laptop soon...I am confident whatever design they introduce next will be a little better than the current design...probably not in a glamorous way, but something tangible.

2 more Cook examples: The Apple Silicon Macbook pros: instead of making them skinnier and more fashionable, he made them heavier and more robust with bigger batteries and more ports. If you're a fashionista?...go with the macbook air...if you have work to do?...go pro. The same applies for the iPhone 17...fatter, bigger battery, more robust. I love it. It's everything I want in a phone and an upgrade over previous versions. No more of this Jobs/Ive bullshit about cutting functionality and making everything so thin and fashionable for childless urban yuppie women and metrosexuals who have a lot more dollars than sense.

I'm a working professional with horrible children. I need a robust, powerful, functional phone...not a fashion accessory. My phone gets dropped way too often. I once saw a small child drowning in a lake 2 years ago and jumped in (along with others) to save her, wearing my street clothes. My 3yo iPhone survived just fine. My wife is a klutz and drops her M1 Macbook Pro like once a week...it works perfectly, just has a bunch of dings in the shell.

It's odd you'd resort to calling me a liar for preferring one era over another. Apple has drastically increased it's marketshare and become more mainstream under cook. This is not just my opinion, based on those numbers alone. If you're commenting on /., you're not a spring chicken. People your age have kids, often grandkids...sexy devices are for people without kids. Once kids destroy your life, you need robust and practical devices. iPhone Air's are not for moms. They're for bored yuppies who spend too much time in Starbucks and own too many pristine turtlenecks and actually shop at expensive clothing stores. The iPhone Air is something Jobs/Ive would have designed. I'm glad Cook was smart enough to make it an option instead of the default. I honestly feel sorry for anyone who buys one. If your life is so boring you don't need a rugged phone, you're not living it to the fullest.

Comment Specific contracts are easier to prove (Score 1) 18

An FTC that works harder on behalf of advertisers than it does on behalf of consumers.

Not that they're wrong, but it's pretty telling that this is their focus when everyday people are being screwed over left and right by these too-big-for-accountability mega corps.

There are more details in an advertiser contract than your EULA and purchase agreement. Also, most advertisers are spending larger amounts of money and more likely to participate. The courts will always favor contract enforcement over class-action lawsuits. It's just very efficient and easy to go to trial about a B2B contract and courts have a lot more experience handling them....class action lawsuits are a MASSIVE mess, even when the case is obvious and airtight.

Comment a grownup vs a man-child (Score 1) 92

suck his tiny mushroom-shaped dick and finger his ass while I do so.

Everyone here knows you would totally do it.

Kewl homophobia, bud...is calling me a cocksucker supposed to insult me? Are we teenagers in the 90s? That's your retort? Try sucking cock...you may enjoy it...there's no shame in giving pleasure. However, to the point....an entitled man child throws a tantrum.... a grown-up does his job. As an ambassador for a massive corporation, most thinks he needs to appease the man-baby-in-chief. They had many interests the gov could fuck up...ranging from frivolous lawsuits to suspending H1-Bs to fucking with the tax code. You seem to forget every CEO did something similar.

Also, offering the president a meaningless trophy in public doesn't seem quite to the level of sucking someone's cock. I've gotten participation trophies...I've gotten blowjobs...they are NOTHING ALIKE.

Comment Did Jobs really risk more? I think Cook did (Score 2) 92

Apple took more risks under Jobs. But Apple made more money under Cook. And for those of us that neither use Apple products nor work there, our investment portfolio prefers Cook.

What risks did he take? The iPhone? The notion of a computer and a phone merged was not invented there. Half the functionality was there on the Palm Trio several years prior. We know that if they didn't, someone else would have. ..the iPod?...well, everyone knows Apple wasn't the first to make HD-based mp3 player. Create Labs had superior ones IMO already out before the iPod 1.0 was release. The iPad?...doesn't seem risky...seems quite sensible. Intel-based chips?...that was obvious. Maybe the unibody stuff???...IDK...seems obvious to me, not so risky.

However, Cook took more risks IMO: The Apple Vision Pro is an obvious one and I think it's safe to say it failed. The iPhone headphone jack was removed on his watch...and everyone still complains about it. He released Apple AI and then delayed it...which is nearly unheard of. That was very risky and I thank him for that.

However, I think the AirPods were a huge risk that payed off. Weird tiny bluetooth earbuds with batteries that can't be replaced?...a bit risky when they came out. The Apple Headphones. MASSIVELY overpriced entry in a VERY saturated market with almost no growth potential....definitely a risk. They recently acquired Photomator...a warning shot to Adobe...their longest and most lucrative software partner.

IMO, Jobs was just nuts and arrogant and mentally ill. I don't understand the obsession with him. He sucked as a human, his company had more failures than successes. His strength has always been marketing, not innovation. He did the trump thing...instead of saying "oops, I was wrong"...he claimed it was innovation and he "thinks different." The fucker even tried to beat pancreatic cancer with a juice cleanse. That last one really says a lot about his character.

Jobs is definitely memorable, but Cook served my needs as a user a LOT more. Jobs made the promise of a computer that "just works." Tim Cook delivered it. When I got my first macbook (from an employer), Jobs had just died and the software was dogshit. It didn't work as advertised, crashed often, had lots of obvious bugs, etc. I gave it an open minded try and it was shit. And year after year, it got a little more reliable. They added tiny feature after tiny feature. Apple Notes is a great example. When I started using it, it wouldn't sync reliably and docs got corrupted and it was a huge mess....little by little it got better. It's now pretty nice...far from perfect for my needs due to limited formatting and aggressive autocorrect, but great for someone not using it to take notes on obscure technical or medical terms like I do. The same applies for reminders, mail, etc.

Now I love the Apple ecosystem...because of Tim Cook. The iPhone 17 was tangibly better than the 16 in terms of design and features, not just a speed/battery/camera upgrade. The 16 was a tiny bit better than the 15, etc. The latest Macbook pros are tangibly better designed than the ones from 5+ years ago...The ones under Jobs/Ive actually got worse...the thunderbolt 3 macbook from 2016 was objectively worse than the laptop it replaced (both designed under Jobs and/or Ive). I am confident the macbooks they announce next will either be exactly the same in terms of external design or better than the ones released today...I used to not be so confident about them.

Cook was a near-perfect CEO. He made products that were better for the users and was responsive to the market and the shareholders. He kept his bullshit out of the public eye. I am sure he's a horrible sociopathic human being, but I don't know that...I know how big of an asshole Jobs was. Cook was smart enough to stay out of the spotlight and let the product do the talking. He is quick to correct mistakes. He thinks more long-term than most modern tech CEOs.

He was the opposite of Jobs. Jobs boldly sold a vision he couldn't deliver...Cook just quietly delivered and steadily improved their products...took the risks, but didn't brag about them. I respect his style.

Comment Are you talking phones or macs? (Score 1) 92

You mean shit we actually had before marketing got drunk and dropped their entire marketing department into a pitcher of beer.

And thus was born the IP-six-sevaaan era of fuck-your-removable-battery unitard chassis that eventually fed the idiocy of Bendgate.

(It's truly terrifying how much will be forgotten when greybeards die off and get AI-replaced by "Trust Me Bro, this is how it was..")

You're really hard to follow. iPhones never had removable batteries and almost no androids have them now. If you're talking about macs? Well, the removable batteries were removed before Steve Jobs left. IIRC, they weren't really removeable without taking the whole thing apart since the Power PC days. If you're pining for those days...well, I don't know what the fuck is wrong with you. Before they went intel, Macs were completely useless IMO. They were a garbage OS with reduced functionality selling to weird cult members who thought Windows can't support more than 8 characters in a file name. You'd pay twice as much as a windows laptop for something that was bested by an intel/AMD processor from 3 years prior....but hey, you got an elegant mouse with only one button! That's good for something, right???

If your complaint is design and removable batteries, Apple is not for you. There are plenty of alternatives. I hear Framework is pretty rad on the laptop side and I honestly don't know which specialty android phone let's you swap batteries these days.

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