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Comment Re:100M is enough (Score 1) 108

Well wtf does he mean by speedtest then? If he's doing it from his phone or wifi connected laptop, then it's going to reflect the speed of his wifi. If he's doing it from his router, and complaining that the speedtest is wrong because his wifi is slower than his router uplink, I'd say that's a statement only a doofus would make.

Comment Re: How this may play out (Score 1) 71

The real issue is that the packaging process used to create vaccines in quantity is a process where you mix a tank of mRNA with a tank of other stuff and get a tank of lipid nanoparticles. Getting different mRNA in each dose means you only get one patient's vaccine per time you start and stop the machine. There's also a step where one copy of mRNA is used to make a macroscopic quantity of copies in a bioreactor that needs to be flushed in between different sequences, but can just run when making enough of the same thing for a large population. It's likely that the cost for each different sequence will come down if it's worth designing and building equipment that switches every dose, but there's an intermediate time between proving that the treatment is useful and being able to provide it in a cost-effective way.

Comment Re:Thanks, AI bubble! (Score 1) 110

Which they'll shutter or repurpose if the demand plummets. You think they're going keep those factories churning out memory chips if prices drop significantly?

You're right, they'll run the numbers and take whichever path maximizes their net profit -- but shuttering (or even heavily modifying) a facility that they've just invested $$$$ into is unlikely to be found to be their most profitable option. More likely they'll try to sell memory chips at a profit of +$.25 per chip in large volumes, because when you've got is a giant hammer, hammering lots of nails is what you can do best.

Comment Re:AI doesn't use desktop hardware including RAM (Score 2) 110

That's the really sad part. No aftermarket for them since they will all be industrial grade parts not even compatible with home systems.

I wonder if anyone will start selling home systems capable of using cast-off data center RAM? It might be worthwhile if there's lots of that sort of RAM floating around for cheap.

Comment Well. yeah, what do you expect ? (Score 1) 70

An LLM is just a stack of Transformer layers - they are great at what they do - prediction - but that is all they are built to do.

Humans are not just intelligent predictors. As a social species we have also evolved to (mostly) peacefully co-exist and co-operate, and a lot of our intelligence seems in fact to be collective intelligence.

If we want LLMs to behave in more human ways, then we need to make them more brain like, and start adding all the extra moving parts that evolution has equipped ourselves with.

Comment Increasing productivity makes the wheels go faster (Score 1) 71

Sure, a company could use an increase in productivity to allow their workers to work fewer hours while getting the same amount accomplished... but capitalism doesn't work that way. Instead, the company will use the increase in productivity to get more work done in the same amount of hours as before... or if they don't, their competitor will, and thereby obtain a competitive advantage over them.

This is especially true for salaried employees, where the cost of the employee to the company is the same regardless of how many hours the employee works, and it is therefore in the company's financial interest to maximize the return on its salary "investment" by getting as much output from the employee as possible in any given pay period.

Comment Anthropic's most optimistic prediction ... (Score 1) 51

Dario Amodei (Anthropic CEO)'s "Machines of Loving Grace" was the first of these, and if effect explains why others like Altman and Zuckerberg are chiming in.

Amodei's prediction:

1) AI will take ALL the jobs

2) Since people won't have any jobs, the government will have to provide UBI (universal basic income), aka food stamps

This is the most positive spin Amodei can put on the future that he is rushing to create, and not surprisingly people are not happy. The public increasingly see AI as an unwelcome technology that will create more problems than positive benefit.

This is at least part, a large part, of the reason that others like Altman and Zuckerberg are coming out with their own spin on how wonderful the AI future will be - because they realize public perception is massively against them (and also they are a bunch of arrogant pricks who think they are creating god, and are entitled to tell us how grateful we should be for it).

Comment Re:How about none. (Score 3, Interesting) 54

I've got a co-worker like that; every email I get from him is just him copy-and-pasting text from his pet AI, and when I reply, he forwards my email on to his AI to read and generate the next reply for him.

Which raises the question... exactly what value is my co-worker providing there? Sooner or later management will notice that they are paying six figures of annual salary to what is essentially just a very slow meat-based email relay, and they'll lay him off and just have me communicate with the AI directly instead. There's a fine line between "all in" and "all redundant".

Comment Re:I initially dismissed the idea of agents (Score 1) 54

It all depends on one thing: Will your speech-driven AI agent reliably accomplish the tasks that you told it to do? If so, great, we've entered the glorious Star Trek future. OTOH if it screws up, even just 5% of the time, it'll be kicked to the curb, because a "timesaver" that you have to stand over and supervise to make sure it doesn't go wrong is no timesaver at all.

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