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Comment Re: the superhuman AI researcher (Score 0) 53

"Expect countries that don't manage the transition to see 10%+ unemployment..."
I like how you pretend that such a transition will be manageable by some "countries" such that unemployment won't be that high. How will countries manage the transition?

"You can only use police crowd control tactics for so long before your government collapses"
Not with AI and robotics! "Your government" no longer means human government, it means property of Peter Thiel.

"See the wealth of those who own AI and robots grow. The rest of the people must rent access in order to go about their daily lives. That rent can be through employers that pay you less to offset their AI bills."
Everyone knows that's the billionaire plan, but you are pretending that there is an intention for "the rest of the people" to have "daily lives". Billionaires don't want "rent", they want to own it all, they have no intention of being "employers" that "pay you less", they are taking everything, your home, your food, your lives. AI replaces you, you get nothing. Excited about the government managing the transition though!

Comment Re:the superhuman AI researcher (Score 2) 53

Without defining what "AI progress" is all of that is meaningless.

"We also predict a 35-65% chance that Top-Expert-Dominating AI (TED-AI), AIs that can automate all white-collar work, will arrive before 2028."

On the current trajectory that will NEVER happen. Lots of "white-collar work" requires ethics, something AI is currently incapable of, and those "SARs" won't be directed to solve that problem, it is contrary to the interests of its billionaire owners.

There's an enormous difference between AI models and AI agents, these comments rely on you not knowing which is being talked about when.

Comment Re:Maybe. (Score 1) 64

"turned blue" is just rhetoric anyway. Democrats enjoyed one unusually good election, there will be another soon enough and Republicans will employ the usual strategy of smears and destruction to regain power. Texas is no more blue today that two weeks ago; power has just shifted, we will see if that is sustained.

Comment Re: Good luck with that (Score 1) 64

More redirects, now the subject is ship building.

Interesting that the "abundance of power" isn't reflected in low electric rates to Ariizona customers, it's almost as if you are conflating different things i.e. nuclear power and solar radiation. MAGA, are you capable of saying anything without deceit?

Comment Re:Nvidia's loss (Score 1) 103

I think Huang's departure was a mistake. Nvidia still has CUDA and a hell of an engineering team. What it loses is the guy who backed GPU computing when that was a much harder sell. Based on what's public, I'd have tried to keep him, put any conflicted personnel decisions in someone else's hands, and let the independent directors finish their investigation.

I'd be more worried about where Jensen lands next. Whether he joins another company or starts his own, somebody gets a guy who's already shown he can spot a market early and get developers to build for it. Nvidia could pay for this twice: once to replace him, and again to compete with him.

You're assuming Jensen Huang was spotting a trending market, rather than riding a market he understood and just happened to be there for the bitcoin / AI trends that took that market into the stratosphere. It's pretty common to assume that the top dogs in the bigger markets are all geniuses that knew every step of the way what the outcome was gonna be, when in reality it's usually a mix of specialist knowledge and business skill that just happens to land on an unpredicted trend that takes them to the top. Not to say there is nothing impressive in these folks, but it's rarely as impressive as they end results leave people thinking it is.

Right time/right place is not actually a sign of foresight. Even if the rearview mirror makes it appear that way.

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