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Comment Re: Handmade (Score 3, Informative) 165

We met someone who does quality inspections for Costco, they're amazingly thorough. A lot of the products are organic, free range, and/or sustainably sourced, which surprised us. What surprised us even more is the quality of the produce. Yeah, we have to buy five pounds of sweet potatoes or a three pound bag of Opal apples, but can be sure that they're going to be good.

Even better, they treat their employees like real people, pay them well, and give them decent benefits.

Comment Re:Starlink? No. All satellites? Yes (Score 1) 140

Arrow failed miserably in protecting Israel from Iranian missiles.

THAAD fires two missiles at every target, and even assuming a 100% kill rate (never seen in the real world) that would require 72 interceptors at a cost of $15 MILLION each. 72 x 15 = $1.08 BILLION to stop one single $30 million Oreshnik.

Aegis interceptors are even more expensive, at $28-$40 million each. Since it's ship-based if the target is located inland the launcher will be within range of shore-based systems, and Aegis will be busy just defending itself.

There are two critical failures in all current air defense systems. One which was painfully exposed in Israel's ill-fated '12 Day War' is the ease with which they're overwhelmed by a swarm of cheap drones and/or missiles. Simply defending themselves can use up much of their ready stocks of interceptors (the main supply is stored separately to prevent catastrophic explosions). Now while it needs to be resupplied the enemy can launch its real attack, and Iran was able to acquire plenty of data already to know what the ready supply consists of. The next time Israel attacks Iran the reply is likely to be considerably more damaging.

The other critical failure is manufacturing of air defense systems and interceptors. In the 12 Day War they used up around two years of manufacturing of Patriot interceptors. Supposedly manufacturers were going to dramatically increase the rate of production after the Ukrainian conflict began, but they've so far failed to do so. Even if they could beef up the production line though a new issue has come up. All the sabre-rattling that Rump is doing towards China has caused the Chinese government to cut off supplies of REE and other strategic minerals like antimony and tungsten to the MIC. As a poster in another forum said, "China doesn't feel a need to help build the weapons we want to use against them." For many of these materials China controls 65-95% of the world's supply, and Russia is the second-largest source for most of what they don't control. Boeing for example is unable at this time to build more Arrow interceptors, when Israel uses up its supply they're out for the foreseeable future. (Interceptor rationing is speculated to be one reason why Ansarallah's missiles have had more success recently.)

Comment Re:Starlink? No. All satellites? Yes (Score 1) 140

Ukrainian first responders at the time said that four underground levels of the factory were destroyed and that they couldn't access the levels below that. Keep in mind this was with inert payloads (some reports claim tungsten, others iron), the destruction was exclusively from kinetic shock damage.

We have interceptors capable of intercepting this missile in both boost and terminal phases.

No, we don't. The only way the Star Wars money sink managed to exceed a 50% kill rate on the terminal phase is when they put transponders in the target missile. I don't think that Russia is going to be so accommodating. It's an Intermediate Range missile, we'd have to post our interceptors somewhere within Russia or Belarus to get them during the boost phase. Again, I don't think that Russia is likely to accommodate us.

Here is a short video of the strike (the incorrectly call it an ICBM, but it's an IRBM), notice that the MIRVs have taken different trajectories before splitting into their separate payloads so arrive in staggered groups, making targeting almost impossible. For that matter any of the MIRVs could have released a cloud of decoys rather than standard payloads, but since there are 36 independent objects all taking slightly different paths that's probably not going to be necessary at any time in the next decade.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?...

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