In a lot of cases, maybe even most it could be that functionally but there are still real assets under it and real direct economic interests in the outcomes for parties to those contracts and instruments, that alone separates it from simple wagering which is what a prediction market is.
Most of stocks, options and other financial instruments shift risk, or speculatively take on risk for potential gain. "predicting" who will get an Oscar, with a payout if you're right or loss of your "investment" if you are not, is just that betting..
You and the counter party have no economic interest or fallout other than the bet you created.
The only legal financial instrument I can really think of that we permit (and it probably should not be legal IMHO because it too is just gambling for the same reasons) is the naked credit default swap. We should not allow someone to ensure a bond they don't own. The only explaination for why we do is regulatory capture. Because when the SEC had to decide if you could resell life insurance policies you no longer needed, the answer was No!
Think a business takes out a 20 year term policy on their CEO, they have an insurable interest the unexpected death of the CEO will disrupt the business. The CEO resigns in year 11. There are 9 years left on the policy, the thought was you could sell the policy on a secondary market to someone else who would keep it enforce betting the guy/gal will kick the bucket and you'll get the pay off. The SEC said no you can't securitize a policy in that way the owner party won't have an insurable interest.
For some reason though we can do this with bonds. I can sell you credit default swap on a bond you don't own. You can bet essentially that ACME CO won't be able to John Smith his $1000 coupon in 2032, for some reason.