we'll never get to a point where we point at a new system and call it AGI with a straight face. Instead, we'll see systems that in hindsight we will label as AGI
Absolutely not. It will be obvious when they start acting with will and intent instead of just fucking up a script due to RNG-guided hallucination.
the frontier systems achieve expert capability in very narrow domains. But the current generation falls short in real-world autonomy and novel logic.
They don't want to do anything. When they do, again, it will be obvious.
After feeding my amateur research and gut analysis into Google Gemini, and asking very loaded questions in my prompts, it is far less optimistic than I am:
No, it isn't. The zeitgeist is, and it's regurgitating that. Stop with your animism, your magical thinking is the reason you can believe AGI is imminent.