Comment Re:The stupid it hurts. (Score 1) 98
By the sound of it, he’s arguing that in a 100% renewable electric grid, to keep outages from rare production lulls—like multi-day periods that are both overcast (cutting solar) and calm (cutting wind)—to less than once per decade, you’d need about 3 days’ worth of energy storage. That’s plausible. Even a 30-day stretch producing only 90% of demand could be buffered with that reserve.
Australia’s annual electricity use is around 200 TWh, so 2 TWh is roughly 1%—closer to 3.7 days of average demand. That’s in the right ballpark, especially with rounding and overhead. Back-of-napkin accuracy is fine here; maybe the extra cost is wiring, inverters, and grid integration.
What’s not reasonable are the cost comparisons.
Australia’s public healthcare budget is about $180 billion AUD/year. A lithium-ion buildout at ~$100 USD/kWh would cost around $400 billion AUD for 2 TWh. Spread over 15 years, that’s ~$26 billion AUD/year—just 14% of healthcare spending, not more.
If they go with sodium-ion, which is emerging at ~$30 USD/kWh, the total cost drops to ~$100 billion AUD, or ~$6.7 billion/year—less than 4% of healthcare spending.
And that’s assuming a pessimistic 15-year battery lifespan. In reality, the sheer size of the system means shallow daily cycling, which dramatically extends life. Batteries degrade slower when they’re not pushed hard. A system sized for rare deep discharge could last 20–30 years, especially with smart charge management.
Plus, investing $100B+ into grid storage would naturally accelerate R&D, manufacturing scale, and chemistry improvements. LFP cells currently outperform sodium-ion on cycle life, but sodium has room to grow-and in grid use, even 40% remaining capacity can still be useful. You don’t need to scrap a battery at 80%. Just add more cells or shift its role.