I'm old enough to remember breathtaking headlines from the first decade of the millennium stating that “technology” will cause half of the jobs in healthcare to disappear.
Instead, it doubled over the decade.
Tech breakthroughs will always make certain jobs redundant through automation: the printing press brought an end to the age of the illuminated manuscript scribe. But history shows us tech breakthroughs have always lead to more job total than before.
Historically, that's true. However, that's a coincidence, like Moore's Law. Also, most breakthroughs occur so slowly that the economy has time to adjust. Technology has replaced lots of people working in photography, travel agents, typists, stenographers, but it took awhile for each. Once you have AI that works as promised, you're going to have a massive amount of job loss. The only shining light is that modern AI is a pyramid scheme and the results are never as promised...but what if that changes?
I think it's safe to say that once you have AI that can reliably replace a software engineer, you'll have AI that can reliably replace a truck driver...a lawyer...an accountant, etc. That will really decimate the economy. I think today's LLMs are a far cry from their promise and mostly garbage...for many reasons I've ranted about in the past on this site.
If they find a way, a LOT of people will lose their job very quickly.
My prediction? LLMs...at best, can replace stack overflow or Google...but not people. An LLM only predicts tokens. It has no idea what it's doing. I use Claude 4.0 every day for work and it still can't reliably match braces. Seems easy to fix...but at that point, you're building an AI with a rules engine....they've poured trillions into this. If it could be done, it would be and they'd be making near infinite money with a magic box that can take an English sentence and produce useful code...an app, a video game, a video, etc.
IF...LLMs actually worked, you'd not only see them selling your LLMs, but actual solutions based on them...like a generate your own FPS game service...infinite levels for your favorite game...JVMs/CLRs/Node.js/Python runtimes that could transform your functional code into expert-grade assembly, giving you blistering performance and reducing your cloud spend. Once we see those?...I'll get nervous.
However, to your point. There's no logical reason why technology creates jobs. It just has in the past. The new demand has outstripped the reduction in positions. Those are two competing variables. Once the rate of job loss exceeds the rate of new demand created, you have a massive economic issue. Wait until white collar work is gutted the way retail was...ask anyone who worked at Sam Goody, Blockbuster, ToysRUs, etc.