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Comment Re:When dictators lead in innovation (Score 1) 61

I don't want them to shift toward the west.

I said I expect them to become a high trust society. While I am personally convinced that we were a high trust society in most parts due to the catholic Church, I would not discount the chance that other cultures can build one as well.

I would also not discount the chance that Catholicism actually ticks up in China at some point. Again, I wouldn't wager on the precise mechanisms... I'm just saying that the instability that is becoming ever more aparent in China CAN topple their way of life. Such things have happened in the past. On numerous occasion not least of which the DDR.
Or do you think the population in the DDR thought it likely in January 1989 that they would have Christmas with their western families in 1990?

Comment Re:When dictators lead in innovation (Score 1) 61

Well the words "What I think is more likely to happen" both flag my post as speculation and a personal opinion.

And I agree with you. Since we've given the US quasi leadership of the western world, it giving up world dominance automatically means we as its sycophants won't have a pole position to take over, especially since the same societal issues ail us as do them.

That's why I said in the future we may bounce back but in what way I am unable to say. Perhaps it's gonna be the EU or perhaps either France or GB have such a hellish time that they completely reinvent themselves and rebuild their empires. Who could say?

Comment Re:When dictators lead in innovation (Score 3, Interesting) 61

But I am not talking about outgrowing the economy. Simple dollar values are hollow. China already is totally entrenched in just about every supply chain.

Intel is dying both on the planning and production side of chips. The latter is in Taiwan's hand. If China pulls its head out of its arse, the animosity between it and Taiwan may go up in smoke faster than people want to believe and what then?

As I said elsewhere, if China manages to convince the world it's turning into a high trust society while America is devolving into a lower trust one, well...

Comment Re:When dictators lead in innovation (Score 2, Interesting) 61

While interesting as far as factoids go, I'm not sure what you think the impact on my take on matters would be.

I don't think that China's limitation is technology. The whole world is already dependent on its workforce and resources.

China is what enables tech bros to shine. Hell, how many of our scientists are Chinese born bringing with them Chinese work ethics.... and Chinese ethics?

The latter is the issue. Nobody trusts China and for damn good reason. If China manages to ease up and become a high trust society (which it isn't. As far as I am aware the studies declaring China one are based on questionnaires inside the respective countries and that's worth zilch), stop burning out its youth and still retain some of that work ethic, they won't have to take leadership away from the US, the world will just shimmy a few degrees due China over a few years and it'll be a done deal.

Comment Re:When dictators lead in innovation (Score 5, Interesting) 61

People have been touting China as the next world leader, displacing the US, since the 90s. Earlier possibly.

They thought it would happen economically and we all would start learning the communist ways.

What I think is more likely to happen is that China will see major societal turmoil in the next two decades, toppling the authoritarian government and then it will become the land of the free and the home of the brave.

Meanwhile the complacent west will go through a phase of relearning the value of what it used to have. It will do us a lot of good and it'll prime us to take world leader role at a later date... But it will be painful as valuable lessons usually are.

Comment Re:Stepping on toes (Score 1) 77

Oh yawn. Whether God is real or not has limited influence on the fact that believing in him makes my life better, makes my family's life better and makes society around me better.

I'd rather it turns out I am wrong and had the advantages than being right when I suicide. Good for you if you don't need a god because you're a perfectly content human being. Seeing as you just had to throw that morcel of insight out there seems to be telling another story though.

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