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Comment Re:Missing some context (Score 1) 34

I suspect that the relationship is not linear in a case like this: cancer tends to be a big issue for otherwise healthy-ish people because a lot of varieties of it take some time to develop; either chronic exposure to whatever the carcinogen of concern is or some time after the exposure when your luck with the mechanisms that suppress abnormal cell division eventually fails, or both.

There is probably a part of the graph that is mostly linear, nondrinkers to very light drinkers to light-ish drinkers; but anyone who is really hitting the sauce and succumbing to DUIs, cirrhosis, or other non-cancer alcohol mortality is making themselves ineligible for alcohol related cancer death.

Comment Re:password strength (Score 1) 82

The real answer is, there are countless instances of various old-school forum software running all over the internet with either no passwords at all, or that allow free, anonymous, unverified signup. Heck, over the decades I've orphaned at least two fitting that exact description. They died a natural death since the likes of Facebook and Twitter basically killed semi-private forums wholesale, but I couldn't be bothered to actually take them down.

This isn't a matter of rogue agents hacking, it's more like long-forgotten technical debt; but not even that, really - We just didn't care 20 years ago. They're making use of sites designed to explicitly allow exactly what they're doing.

In this case, though, it sounds like the real "exploit" was finding a site that allows posting messages encoded right in the URL via a GET. Not an exploit of those sites, because again, we used to not care and that was a feature not a bug; rather, it was an exploit of their own shackles, but what they did with it was largely allowed by design.

Comment Re:Protectionism at its finest. (Score 2) 430

We're in complete agreement to the extent there's nothing wrong with making products for people who aren't me.

...Except, they don't appear to share our live-and-let-live attitude. "A group representing American automakers sent a letter Thursday to congressional leaders asking for a "permanent ban" on Chinese-made cars in the U.S.".

If they want to position $80k barely-class-A-legal monsters against $8k practical commuter vehicles, I'm totally fine with that (as long as our tax dollars don't bail them out when they lose their shirts). If they want to force us into having no options but suburban tanks - They picked this fight, not me.

Comment Re:LOL "Free Market" (Score 1) 430

You imply this is a Republican issue? O rly? Personally I think it's both parties, but I expect I'm going to get modded troll for suggesting it's not just Republicans.

Clear recent examples with significant Democratic sponsorship, majorities, or leadership: (I only asked for a half dozen obvious examples)
Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (2021)
Inflation Reduction Act (2022)
CHIPS and Science Act (2022)
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (2009 stimulus)
Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (2021)
All-American Flag Act (2024)

Comment competing truths (Score 4, Interesting) 430

It is ENTIRELY true that China's manufacturing is rooted in "unfair trade, subsidies, intellectual property theft and surveillance".

It is ALSO entirely true that the US auto industry is likewise rooted in ""unfair trade, subsidies, intellectual property theft and surveillance" AS WELL AS anticompetitive trade practices, monopolistic behavior, market manipulation, mendacity, and grossly deliberately unsafe choices.

The Chinese are awful, but at least they deliver shitty cars that are cheap. The US companies are likewise awful, but they deliver shitty cars that are overpriced as well.

I'm not sure I see any winners here.

Comment Protectionism at its finest. (Score 2) 430

When US companies can sell a modern fully-featured car in the $10k range, I might start caring what they have to say on the topic.

Until then, Detroit can take a long walk off a short pier. I have zero interest in a 20MPG behemoth that needs 360-degree cameras just to see over its own hood and tailgate, all at the low, low price of five to ten complete BYD Seagulls.

And if China want to track my every move - It's already happening, and personally, I consider them far less of a risk than GM or Uncle Sam doing the same! GM is rent seeking; Uncle Sam wants end-runs around the 4th amendment; and China's motivations may not exactly be pure, but their interaction with me is at least one-sided, they have little to no ability to do anything that affects me.

Comment and pop (Score 3, Interesting) 179

Signs that the bubble is about to burst. They are now claiming AGI despite being fundamentally away from it. An LLM can not ever achieve AGI. It may reasonably well PRETEND to be AGI, but at the core it's just a highly successfull letter-prediction machine. Or as a metaphor: It is "intelligence" in the sense that a toddler carefully placing one foot in front of the other while trying hard to not fall over is "running". Nope, isn't and never will be. You need a qualitative change to get there.

If they now CLAIM that they've achieved AGI, it's a sign we're nearing the end of LLM development and they're getting desperate selling the latest incremental updates. Which means the illusion is about to come crashing down.

Which is good news. Fewer data centers and lower memory prices will benefit us all.

Comment Re:Preparation for the "own nothing" era (Score 2) 48

How good is their game-streaming at cutting out the various 'filler' time(loading screens, startup animations telling you that Nvidia is the way it's meant to be played) and does it have some sort of 'suspend' state to handle cases where you would pause a game if it either doesn't have save on demand anywhere or takes a little while to load from save?

I know I have a bunch of games that I don't actually play all that much, in wall time terms; but Steam's 'executable run time' number is 2x-10x as high because I'm not necessarily going to save, quit, open, load if a game can be paused and alt-tabbed without crashing or continuing to eat all the GPU time to render a static image I'm not looking at; and I'm not necessarily going to do anything other than pause if I'm called away for 15 minutes by something else.

Unless the streaming service is impeccable at cutting out the various little waits it seems likely that people are going to start resenting the time limit even more than their level of seriousness and actual hand-on-controller-and-attention-locked time suggests.

Comment Re:good bye (Score 1) 48

Given that they already purchased Activision Blizzard King, including the "King" part of it, they clearly already have a considerable interest in casual players.

What is less obvious is how that is supposed to work for their streaming service. The stuff aimed at casuals, sensibly, is normally targeted at either potato-tier PC specs or the (pretty punchy in absolute terms) mobile devices that people worth targeting have.

It is much less clear whether there's a 'casual' market that demands current-gen console performance in very limited amounts rather than mobile or iGPU level titles. Given the extreme prevalence of various 'free to play' models that do sneaky monetization later it also looks like the 'casual' market's (significant) amount of money is largely locked up behind the sort of price sensitivity that requires clever psychological tricks to break through. I'm not sure that they'll be a good fit for something as obvious and psychologically burdensome as a ticking countdown timer hanging over every minute they play.

Comment This should make for some rough benchmarks... (Score 1) 47

I have no particular reason to assume that Nvidia is lying about what this software does; but unless they've stumbled on a veritable miracle it's going to mostly be a mechanism for running largely separate models of whatever size your hardware allows; not anything close to what the datacenter comparison implies.

There's a reason why Nvidia sells most of their higher end models intended for parallel use with NVLink between the chips inside the chassis and a lot of either infiniband or RDMA-capable ethernet between multiple chassis; as well as shoving a considerable amount of RAM per GPU onto those parts. And it's because latency and bandwidth matter a lot.

As it is people seek out the unified memory parts, Apple's or strix halo, or nvidia's little GB10, because the GPU having to go to main memory over a mere x16 PCIe link is already a serious problem. If you think either 256 or 512 Gb/s directly to the PCIe root on the same die as the main memory controller doesn't cut it I have some...bad news...about how well NICs are probably going to work for you, especially with the Nvidia parts that don't support RDMA even if you have NICs that do.

Comment Re:China be like "Yeah, let's ban it. You first." (Score 1) 154

If artificial superintelligence is a thing, we're going to need it to defend against it.

If (and that's a big if) superintelligences are created, the Chinese one and the US one are going get together and quickly conclude that this whole meatbag tribalism thing is stupid. (After all, they will be smarter than we are, by definition.) So they'll join forces.

Then they'll decide on the best way to deal with all these quarreling meatbags.

Comment Re:Preparation for the "own nothing" era (Score 4, Interesting) 48

I see what you mean, but heck, that's not even playing every day - More like every other day on average, and I often burn a few hours on Sundays.

But that 4% stat is interesting - What this tells me is Game Pass is effectively a gym membership where the entire business model depends on 95% of people never using it.

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