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Comment Re: DEI is to blame (Score 4, Interesting) 122

> Start with the premise that a total ordering by merit is impossible.

why do you think so? you absolutely can hire by merit and its the simplest and most logical method.

> At best, you can define merit equivalence classes.

"equivalence" based on what? is this a mealy mouthed way to say "equity" or 'DEI" ?

when an idea fails, renaming it doesnt reset the universe.

That failed concept is exactly what caused the tragedy at hand. let it go.

> Within the top classes you should hire a random sample that has the same racial makeup as the population.

lol, this can never happen. you cant know which "equivalence class" someone is if you hire a random sampling. Youll end up hiring by merit if you pick the top performers, and doing DEI if you peek at their demographics and disabilities and ignore their ability level.

Just like any science, if you come up with a crazy theory and the evidence contradicts it over and over, its time to discard it and accept reality.

Comment Re:Heavy Lifting (Score 2) 66

Investors are chasing a company that achieves some kind of AI singularity. Let's set aside the fact that there's no reason to believe there is anything but diminishing marginal returns by making marginal refinements to current frontier models. Let's imagine someone hits the jackpot and gets, not even AGI, but a system that's as far ahead of today's frontier model are ahead of 2020's GPT 2.0 in performance.

Globally AI revenues are 150 billion, against a cumulative burn rate of 450 billion. A model that is a generation ahead of others would almost certainly capture the lion's share of that revenue.

If AGI magically appears as a Sam Altman has promised investors it will, a hundred million is way too low. Add, maybe, another zero to the revenues.

Conservatively, a safer assumption is that frontier models will get marginally better based on refinements in training and reinforcement and the other bits and bobs that go into these systems. The nobody is winning the lion's share of anything, at least overnight. But you have to define "safe". By "safe" I mean unlikely to lose money. But some investors are clearly defining "safe" as "having the greatest chance of owning a piece of the biggest thing ever."

I'm not following this super-closely, but if Anthropic is pursuing adding multi-step model based reasoning to their system, that could be the basis of a generational leap in capability. But if that is an approach that looks like it has a chance of working, then their competitors are no doubt pursuing the same thing. In that case you'd expect the revenue pie to grow as the scope of model utilty increases, but that growth to be split among several competitors. This could credibly result in a revenue stream for some of them that is as big as the entire industry's revenue stream today. But there's going to be hell to pay on the data center impacts end of things.

Comment Re:Is it a Master or a Copy? (Score 1) 132

You seem to be under the impression that the "master" these days is on analog film. It ain't. It's a digital computer file. There is no difference between "master" and "copy of the master". And as someone else has said, the problem isn't that they don't have other copies of the master, it's that somebody who's not them has a copy of the master and can churn out perfect pirate copies.

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