Any company that can't even manage to be roughly correct when it comes to evaluating performance or fires capable employees for reasons unrelated to performance will eventually be replaced by some company that is. For an organization as large as Meta it's practically a certainty that they have 5% of a total workforce that either contributes nothing or are a drag on the productive employees. Perfect assessment simple isn't possible, but that doesn't mean that assessment methods won't be better than random chance.
Assessment methods that depend on a single performance review are, in fact, highly skewed by random chance.
- Everybody has cycles where they are distracted every now and then. Life happens.
- Everybody has cycles where management priorities shift and the result is that all of their effort was wasted. Shift happens.
- Everybody has cycles where some big project doesn't get finished and they can't show that they completed any big projects. Slip happens.
- Everybody has cycles where something unpredictable goes wrong that was caused by something that they did. S**t happens.
And when some of those things just happen to occur right at the end of a performance review cycle, they get far more weight than they do if they happen at the beginning of the cycle. That part is 100% random chance. So random chance plays a statistically significant role in everyone's ranking in a given cycle.
And none of that is necessarily under the control of the employee, and none of it necessarily represents an actual performance problem, but rather, is a reflection of the fact that nobody is perfect and life isn't perfect.
As a result, yes, in any given cycle, you might have 5% who didn't contribute meaningfully to the bottom line, but it won't usually be the same 5% in the next cycle. If you fire the 5% each cycle, all you're doing is making more work for the employees that stay while paying them the same amount, and eventually you'll reach a point of maximum burnout where quality falls through the floor and nothing gets done.
Put another way, that approach to managing is exactly why Facebook sucks as badly as it does. The people they should want to hire take one look at stories like this and say, "I don't want to work at a company where if I have a bad quarter, they're going to fire me," and they don't even bother to apply for jobs.
I'm not saying that it isn't possible to tell the difference on an individual case-by-case basis, but when management is pushing you to identify a specific quota of people to be fired, that ship has sailed, and the only thing those sorts of quotas do is make people over the age of 30 say, "H*** no, I'm not ever going to work for you." So you end up with a bunch of junior talent that can't project-manage their way out of a paper bag, chase new features instead of fixing bugs, don't provide enough test coverage to avoid introducing the same bugs over and over again, etc.
Dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb.