VoIP Predictions for 2005 142
phoneboy writes "There was much progress in the VoIP world in 2004, though not as much as Voxilla predicted exactly one year ago. Will 2005 accelerate the pace of change? We at Voxilla think so. In our One Look Back, Two Steps Forward article, we take a peek back at our predicitions we made in 2004 and don the swami cap as we look boldly into the near future of the phone."
Re:Progress (Score:4, Insightful)
And ironically enough, that's where VoIP could shine -- imagine transmitting your voice with 128kbps MP3 encoding. It might not matter quite so much for personal use, but it would kick ass for speaker-phone teleconferencing.
Re:Progress (Score:1, Informative)
But it's all about the money and the more channels you can cram on the bandwidth, more profit for them.
Re:Progress (Score:5, Informative)
There are codecs specifically meant for speech, such as http://www.speex.org/ [speex.org].
Re:Progress (Score:5, Interesting)
There are codecs specifically meant for speech, such as http://www.speex.org/.
Speex specializes in low bandwidth voice.
If you have 128kbps to throw around, speex is overkill. MP3 may have been designed to compress music especially well, but it's held up quite well as an all-round codec. (Though there might not be much masking noises - like loud beats that obscure other sounds - in speech, the spectral range is quite limited, and MP3 picks up on that.)
And who says VOIP is for voice only? It's not uncommon for me to want to let a friend hear some music that's playing on mtv or my computer. With speech-optimized codecs, it comes out crap on the other end. Even on-hold music sounds mostly like silence and some blips on a cellphone. In fact, I've contemplated using the GSM codec to identify the speech part of music, so I can use it to produce "karaoke"/instrumental versions of music..
I wonder if there's a software upgrade that enables telephone companies to use 64/56kbps ogg (though obviously mono) codecs instead of G.711/G.723.
Re:Progress (Score:1)
What if I sing?
Re:Progress (Score:3, Interesting)
Almsot everyone I call ahs remarked on the quality of the call, not the lack. You don't provide any info but your friend really wants to try locally recording his/her voice to see if the quality there is good. If it's not get a USB headset. If the quality is good they need to look at their net connection and software.
Re:Progress (Score:2, Interesting)
Telephony over TCP/IP over phone line (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Telephony over TCP/IP over phone line (Score:1)
Re:Telephony over TCP/IP over phone line (Score:1)
Re:Telephony over TCP/IP over phone line (Score:2)
Re:Telephony over TCP/IP over phone line (Score:1)
I always found it ironic that, at one time, modems supposedly had a maximum theoretical bandwidth of 2400 baud or 9600 baud (can't remember exactly) over phone lines, but, here, my broadband connection is getting hundreds of Kb/s over that same phone line.
Re:Telephony over TCP/IP over phone line (Score:2)
Actually the "theoretical" limit was always 56K, because that's how many bps the DAC/ADC on the other end of your link would pass, period.
What changed with broadband was the equipment at the central office, and much of the equipment in between. You're s
Re:Telephony over TCP/IP over phone line (Score:1)
Do a google search for "modem baud rate upper limit". Here's a gem: "the upper limit on asynchronous data transmission via voice-grade telephone lines appears to be 9600 bps. The use of higher transmission rates requires special dedicated lines that are "conditioned" (i.e., shielded from outside interference) as well as expensive modulation and transmission equipment." How about this: "The la
Re:Telephony over TCP/IP over phone line (Score:2)
Right - so they knew that modems had room to improve! Thanks for reinforcing my point.
Re:Telephony over TCP/IP over phone line (Score:2)
It is NOT, as the previous poster suggested, due to the DACs - in fact, if you have a DAC between you and your ISP then the MOST you will be able to get is 33.6kbps, which is the FASTEST you can go on traditional POTS using analogue signalling methods (AFAIK).
Rather, 56kbps is an artifact of the designed-in 4kHz bandwidth
Re:Telephony over TCP/IP over phone line (Score:1)
In order to get faster than 33.6, however, your data path between you and your ISP must be entirely digital. To go faster than 33.6, the modem goes "all digital" on the wire.
Actually, this is not correct, the modem still "goes analog". The problem with exceeding 33.6 kbps is an AD conversion, not DA conversion. Which is why those 56kbps modems only provide 33.6 kbps upstream. The DA conversion in the downstream part of your line is not subject to Shannon's law.
Your analog line must be terminated at a
Re:Telephony over TCP/IP over phone line (Score:2)
Analog doesn't have ANY inherent bandwidth limitations. It all depends on the noise/power levels. Normal POTS has filters on the line which does limit the bandwidth. However, going digital in the switch doesn't change that.
Since the sampling rate is at 56Kbps (over a 64Kbps channel, but some is reserved for signaling), the max theoretical you can pump through it is 56Kbps - however, due to the filtering done on the line before the ADC (because it is designed for converting voice), you can't actually get
Mirror (Score:5, Informative)
Personal Experience: (Score:5, Interesting)
I will be using asterisk on linux. While not as feature rich as some of the other companies' offerings, it does have the benefit of being cheaper.
By an order of magnatude.
So, my prediction is this: If voice companies try to treat this as another cash cow, OSS alternatives ( like asterisk ) will boom, in both features and use.
Re:Personal Experience: (Score:2)
We were originally quoted around 25k for a Cisco system using all of their hardware (call manager, media server, 18 7960 phones, licenses, routers, etc.). We laughed at the quote and a local guy told us he could do it for half of that. We still laughed.
We purchased a decent 3u case and built a server with an athlon xp3200 chip, a gig of ram, nice motherboard and a few Digium tdm400 cards for our pstn outgoing lines (on
Re:Personal Experience: (Score:1)
Re:Personal Experience: (Score:1)
Re:Personal Experience: (Score:2)
Our shop split into two buildings - the old one (sales) and another round the corner across a highway (service).
Using a wireless link (w/IPSec for security on top of WPA, since we have some "intranet" app thingies too), two Debian GNU/Linux boxes with a Digium TDM400 card in each one, we can now:
1) Make internal calls for free as much as we like
2) Dial out using a collective line pool of 7 PSTN lines between both shops
3) Transfer calls from one shop to the other
4) Answer with voicemail after hours
5) M
One prediction that I hope doesn't come true (Score:5, Insightful)
You know it's sad when your father, someone who spent 27 years in the U.S military and federal law enforcement looks at you dead seriously and says that generally speaking the biggest lie you'll hear from the federal government is: "we're from the government, we're hear to help you." I'll never forget my dad reading about Carnivore and realizing that his reaction to it was probably a good example of why he retired from federal law enforcement under him. How we cheered when Carnivore proved to be a failure.
Re:One prediction that I hope doesn't come true (Score:4, Interesting)
Seriously, if they can require *any* VOIP to be tappable, where does it stop? Email? web traffic? IM?
Re:One prediction that I hope doesn't come true (Score:2)
It doesn't.
Re:One prediction that I hope doesn't come true (Score:2)
so again, why am I subject to CALEA when it's an IP-only call?
Re:One prediction that I hope doesn't come true (Score:3, Insightful)
How CALEA could be a factor (Score:2)
Btw, with a court order, all of those protocols you listed can be intercepted.
Re:One prediction that I hope doesn't come true (Score:1, Insightful)
Re:One prediction that I hope doesn't come true (Score:2)
You all can make your own decisions, but if VoIP regulations require that Slashdotters expose themselves, I'll just stick with POTS.
Re:One prediction that I hope doesn't come true (Score:2)
There is a difference between the military man and the politicians who command the military. The military man has a greater sense of duty whilst the politicians tend to be power-hungry. No evidence to offer, but it seems to be the way of things.
Re:One prediction that I hope doesn't come true (Score:1)
Re:One prediction that I hope doesn't come true (Score:2)
The sad thing about this is that the 'bad guys' are smart enough to avoid the stuff the US can go after but they do anyway like a bull in a china shop with no finesse and the result i
Re:One prediction that I hope doesn't come true (Score:1)
After all, for quite some time they thought they could maintain communication security by repeatedly exchanging cell phones. However, they got caught up by the fact that the SIM module, which they transferred from phone-to-phone was the actual identifiable piece of hardware.
Also, their ideas on such things as dirty bombs showed a lack of expert knowledge.
That said, you don't have to be a super-elite hacker with ultr
Re:One prediction that I hope doesn't come true (Score:2)
I'm happy... (Score:5, Interesting)
If you give vonage 128kpbs both directions it will be the quality of a cell phone. Not absolutely perfect, but well within the range of acceptable. I've spent hours at a time on the phone with vonage and let me tell you, its leaps and bounds above the good old days of dialpad.com.
So will VoIP be a big player in `05, you bet your ass it will. Considering mainly that landline telephones cost so much more and offer very little justification for it. With VoIP and cell phones, I predict a death for standard copper land lines by at least 2015.
Re:I'm happy... (Score:3, Informative)
re:..I'm happy... well, I'm not (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:I'm happy... (Score:2)
We can easily stick music down 64 Kbps, so what are they doing with 128Kpbs?
Jumped on the bandwagon a few days ago... (Score:1)
Got it all set up a few days ago. Quality is great. Apparently there was an outage (not sure how long, perhaps under an hour) on New Year's Eve, but I wasn't even home when it happened.
I can't really say I'm saving much money, as my land line is only about $15, and if I include long distance calls using my calling card, the total is probably still under $20. But with all the added features I get - some of which aren't availab
Turnkey opportunity (Score:4, Interesting)
Such a system needn't be *cheap* exactly in order to be quite a bit less expensive than typical PBXes, which are usually overkill for small businesses, as well as for any but the most elaborate homes. (Should be doable for a few hundred dollars, I'd guess.)
Or am I just missing that someone is selling such a beast already?
Re:Turnkey opportunity (Score:5, Informative)
I believe Voxbox, from a software point, does pretty much what you are looking for, now if you can just find someone to package it with small hardware platform for a decent price...
Re:Turnkey opportunity (Score:1)
Bad for Network Traffic (Score:2, Funny)
Re:Bad for Network Traffic (Score:1)
Re:Bad for Network Traffic (Score:1)
This has already been around for years, as Quality of Service bits in IP headers. Routers and particularly switches have supported various actions based on the values of these bits for a long time.
What might be changing is that QoS doesn't exist (well, it's ignored) at the ISP level and on the internet at large. Perhaps your ISP is just turning it on.
Re:Bad for Network Traffic (Score:2, Informative)
Here in Canada Primus [primustel.ca] is already offering VoIP service with 911 available in all areas.
Also, the VoIP hardware devices themselves perform QoS [wikipedia.org] a both ends to ensure that the rest of your network traffic doesn't get in the way. Yes IPv6 has the ability to allow different priority of packets, as well as different modes such as isochronous [wikipedia.org] (whic
There is no QoS on the Internet... (Score:1)
Love to jump for joy, but.... (Score:2, Interesting)
Maybe I might wireless broadband this year? Not likely since I'm not line-of-sight with the _only_ wireless broadband tower and that's only 8 miles away from me.
Re:Love to jump for joy, but.... (Score:1)
Re:Love to jump for joy, but.... (Score:2)
Re:Love to jump for joy, but.... (Score:1)
Re:Love to jump for joy, but.... (Score:3, Insightful)
Got a piano tied to your ass? Move to the city or accept that for you, rural living is the right choice, with all the trade-offs entailed.
I grew up rural, moved to the city, never looked back. Sitting in the country whining about how I couldn't get a good cup of cappucino -- and implying that the government ought to fix things so that I could -- didn't cross my mind.
Re:Love to jump for joy, but.... (Score:1)
Re:Love to jump for joy, but.... (Score:2)
If that's your worry, crime statistics are available, as is Prozac.
I live in a city of four million, and a homicide rate 1/30 that of Washington, D.C.
But, as the morons say, "an armed society is a polite society."
I'd rather sit on my crappy dial-up and bitch.
Duly noted.
Re:Love to jump for joy, but.... (Score:2)
And it's not just people in rural areas. I can't get anything over three megs and I live less than 5 miles from my state capitol.
This is also the year... (Score:2)
Re:This is also the year... (Score:2)
Re:This is also the year... (Score:1)
all three (Score:1)
Re:all three (Score:1)
Re:all three (Score:2)
My company recommending remote emp switch to VoIP (Score:2, Informative)
There have been some embarrassing moments with dropped calls in the middle of a conference call, but they have been few a
Vonage prices have been dropping... (Score:5, Informative)
Re:Vonage prices have been dropping... (Score:1)
With cable companies beginning to offer voice, and with phone companies supposedly starting to offer TV service, the next few years of pricing will be very interesting. DSL proved that the phone company's lines are still useful, so it's basically a case of one entrenched infrastructure battling it out with another entrenched infrastructure. We will probably win eit
Re:Vonage prices have been dropping... (Score:1)
Re:Vonage prices have been dropping... (Score:2)
Yes, nanotechnology is one of the buzzwords in my head, but it's not the end-all-be-all (hi Cameron!) of human existence--that's reserved for once we've achieved nanotech, then we can start playing around in the quantum arena. That oughta be exciting!
But whether it's from increased advertising or just the pitifully low cost of sunlight, most goods and services will approac
Predictions (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:Predictions (Score:3, Interesting)
Only in the implementations that you have specifically mentioned. The general idea is not technically stupid.
The idea being, make "cell phones" just do data transfer...likely even IP specifically. And then voice calls are carried as VoIP calls over that data connection.
There are already moves in some areas in this direction in technology. The local jurisdiction of police in my area is rolling out a new radio system do to the city/county merger and the me
Re:Predictions (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:Predictions (Score:2, Insightful)
CALEA [fcc.gov] has been a consideration for VoIP service providers (like the one I work for) for several years already.
And my office has used PoE switches for our VoIP phones (which have over 40 ringtones, some 38 of which are mightly annoying) for several years.
Re:Predictions (Score:2)
Not a bad idea, but PoE is somewhat more expensive. $12-15 just for a passive system, $40 for an active true-PoE system.
The phone line output should already power remote phones, just stick the VoIP box where the UPS is and tap into the house's phone cabling from there. A bigger question to me will be what happens when the internet goes down.
Re:Predictions (Score:1)
First, I think you're talking about plugging traditional analog phones into a single VoIP integrated access device (IAD), but I believe the original poster was referring to actual VoIP phones. VoIP phones have Ethernet interfaces and don't have FXO jacks, so they can't receive power from "the phone line". VoIP phones either get their power from PoE or from a wall plug transformer.
Second, I may be misunderstanding, "The phone line output should a
Re:Predictions - VoIP over 3G (Score:1)
cell phone companies nearly never have unlimited weekday daytime plans during business hours, so a business call to Canada for 2 hours would be TAD expensive.
with 3G data plans being unlimited data at USD 80 / month, a corporate America company can simply give a traveling businessman a 3G data card, sign him up with the $80 plan, and make calls to Canada and heaven forbid, India, for as long as he wants.
Taxes will kill this (in the US anyway) (Score:1, Insightful)
The Car The Phone The VoIP-Router/Repeater (Score:2, Insightful)
I predict..... (Score:2, Insightful)
I also predict that business class phones will become more popular in the home with features like xfer, speaker, conference calling etc.
Video phones will pick up slightly by the end of the year, but for the most part they will still be too expensive for general consumer use. I think cell-phone style hands f
now all we need are (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:now all we need are (Score:1, Insightful)
Is wiring infrastructure sufficient (Score:1)
For example, the network in one building (government contract on low bid) split the CAT5 pairs: 2 pair to each wall port. (Y'all can argue the technical feasability of using 2 pair instead of 4; but,) In order to implement VOIP in that building, new CAT5e wire must be run to each office. This is a cost which the administration is having a hard time understanding
Skype is merely "quite good"? (Score:1, Informative)
Talk about damning with faint praise!
Skype isn't merely quite good: it's a global sensation whose success is outstripping every other VOIP program available. And it deserves every bit of it. Superb qualitity, clean interface, cross platform and simple for Joe Average to set up and be using it in seconds. And totally free for computer to computer users. This is the kind of innovation that makes a laughing stock of Microsoft AND Apple. Even their excellent iChat isn't cross
Legal in South Africa - at last (Score:1)
Skype will come to Gameboy DS (Score:3, Insightful)
Their parents will be forced to get it to maintain communications.
The telico's will fall and everything will be nice
Re:Hot Jewish Girls! (Score:1)
If only I'd bothered to create an account earlier, I might have been able to use mod point on this.
Re:Hot Jewish Girls! (Score:2, Funny)
Instead, you'll have to wait and boost your karma through mirrordot karma-whoring. Oh well.
Re:Personally, my prediction is only for me (Score:1)