I watch a lot of PZ, but you need to take that guy with a grain of salt. Yes, he's generally correct about the overall trends, and he got famous by predicting the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but he's also prone to wild exaggerations, and often spouts incorrect details about countries or industries he talks about.
In the case of China, PZ's biggest argument that they're past peak and falling is demographic data. Unfortunately, just like their financial numbers, their demographic numbers are unreliable too. Most of this was systemic... instead of having a central institution do the census, China relies on data from provinces and adds them up. Unfortunately it also uses that data to determine transfer payments to provinces for things like school funding. So if you were governing a province and wanted more money for schools, you had an incentive to inflate the numbers, and this is what was happening for a long time. As China has been slowly releasing corrections to the data, massive numbers of people are just disappearing from the official counts. Like maybe one or two hundred million people.
What this means is that China's much further along the path to demographic decline than most other countries, and worse, they were actively trying to suppress birth rates with the one-child policy for a good portion of this timeframe. By the time they figured out what was going on, it was too late. You can't suddenly manufacture a bunch of 18 year-olds to fill your factories. And as a nation, they're very unfriendly to immigration, so that option is off the table too.
Now, China also has a leader who likes to shoot the messenger. Anyone under him who publishes data that Xi doesn't like finds himself on the outside, and unemployed. (Which is why we were all so aghast when Trump did the same thing with the jobs numbers.)
So yes, the reliable data we do have seems to indicate that China is in a lot of trouble. But don't take everything PZ says as gospel. He's often wrong.
We don't do commas any more. Slapping together words is the new norm. Forget commas when you're talking about a serial list: Among those interviewed were his two ex-wives, Kris Kristofferson and Robert Duvall.
They went from buying low to selling high and are now shorting the stocks.
They're winning either way.
I think we are going to see a 'correction' we go down 10% or or less from recent highs and trade sideways for a while.
Most of the big guys in AI are already down more than 10% in the past week. Today isn't looking any better. Once Nvidia reports tomorrow after the bell will we see stabilization, assuming they have good news to report.
I was wondering why a site I was on this morning decided to stop loading. Since other sites were still working I thought it might be the site itself. The hamsters got too tired and took a nap.
The idle man does not know what it is to enjoy rest.