What conspiracy? China has announced they plan to land humans "around 2030", and the progress they have shown on a lander suggests that they are on track for that. They have heavy lift rockets capable of performing the mission with lunar orbit rendezvous (the same as NASA is planning), and they have already soft landed probes and rovers on the moon. They have a history of sticking to their announced timescales, which tend to be conservative.
Therefore the question is if NASA can get there first. Starliner is floundering, SpaceX's Starship is ambitious and they have a lot of work to do (man rating, in-orbit refuelling, and likely an unmanned trip around the moon). Then Blue Origin or SpaceX need to demonstrate a working lander, and that likely means an automated landing and return to orbit before a crew can go. NASA also needs to demonstrate lunar orbit rendezvous for whatever craft they end up using too.
It's December 2025, so they probably have around 4-5 years maximum, although China may go even sooner.