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Comment Re:Dumbass puts huge money late into obvious bubbl (Score 2) 65

Clearly we're misunderstanding each other. I was saying that investing in the bubbled asset was folly. I think the AI industry will continue to exist after the bubble pops but at a size no larger than the database industry today. So not zero value, but a small fraction of what it is currently.

I do think that the amount of money being invested in AI training for the improvements being produced is an absurd waste. They're spending larger and larger sums of money to produce rapidly vanishing improvements that customers have so far never shown an interest in paying enough to turn a profit with.

Comment Dumbass puts huge money late into obvious bubble (Score 4, Interesting) 65

This is going to be such a disastrous investment it's going to make Solyndra look like an insignificant whoopsie in comparison. While Chinese product dumping efforts can be hard to foresee, the obviousness and severity of the AI bubble has been on public display for anyone who cares to look for months now. And there's the potential to sink far more money into it. The winner of the AI race is going to be whoever wastes the least money on this folly, and the US looks set for a massive and easily avoidable loss now.

And let's not forget the end goal of this. If someone were to win this race in the fictional imagined scenario where AI didn't hit the core of Diminishing Returns Planet around ChatGPT 4 and there was some kind of path from LLM tech to AGI, the end result would be a technology that augments/replaces labor (same thing, don't be fooled by your boss) in a world dominated by an economic system where most people are workers who need to be able to find buyers for their labor. What could possibly go wrong with that?

Comment We will avoid it late and suddenly, or not at all (Score 1) 176

I don't think we should expect to see steady progress toward a climate solution, I think it's going to happen quite suddenly after some combination of the technology to do it getting cheap enough and the climate producing enough "shit's getting real" moments for a large fraction of the first-world population. At that point either we'll get our asses in gear and set up oceanic and atmospheric carbon sequestration megastructures all over the planet with maybe a little SRM sprinkled on top, or we'll be too distracted or impoverished to do anything about it for some silly reason or another and all the disastrous predictions will come true because this is a problem we're collectively too stupid as a species to solve. That's a real possibility.

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