Nope. They changed their statement since I originally posted.
That's the point- they are the ones in control of the strait, not the US Navy.
Nope. They may have some influence in their costal waters. In particular around Larak Island. But that is a small portion of the straight. There is a much larger section to the south they made threats about, and that USN keeps open at this moment.
Plus, they will likely have little impact outside their coastal waters, like Larak Island, and not into the much larger area to the south the the USN says is open.
Wrong answer. They are able to project power all the way to Oman, and they already have since its re-closure.
In theory, and in an extremely limited sense, and have been warned they will lose infrastructure if they attack a ship. You confuse puffery statement with action.
Again, they just changed their statement. And gain, they are unlikely to have influence in that southern are the USN says is open.
Unlikely? They literally are. Traffic across the straight has come to a complete standstill again.
Its paywalled, by Reuters reported that ship tracking shows a dozen ships have transited the straight, in the southern region opened by the USN.
It is the reality of the situation, and the US Navy does not have the power to stop it.
This is a simple fact of asymmetric warfare.
The USN has been preparing to take on the adhoc mine layers and the adhoc speedboat gun ships for decades. And since Ukraine has been heavily investing in anti-drone systems. And there is deference. If Iran attacks a tanker the USN could do a proportionate response and sink tugboats needed to guide tankers to Iranian coastal pumping facilities. They would lose billions of dollars in income. The USN controls Iran's future and there is little to nothing they can do about that.
It requires very little for Iran to attack a ship transiting the strait, and it requires very much for the US Navy to protect them.
It takes very little to sink every commercial ship equipped for mine laying, or any gunboats that leave port. Oh, they are in an underground shelter. You collapse the exit of such facilities, the USN has been there done that.
The US Navy does not have the manpower required to escort tankers through the strait- that is why Trump tried to call for allied assistance.
Actually that was more of a minesweeping thing.
The US Navy is fully capable of intercepting drones and missiles that come close to its destroyers and cruisers- but it lacks the ability to to intercept missiles that are coming down 20-40 miles away.
They have been training to escort convoys not individual ships. And they have done so going back to the 1980s as circumstances required.
For Iran's part, they only need to marginally successfully attack a few ships for traffic to come to a halt, because there are tankers- not warships. They're not paid to run a gauntlet while people are shooting at them. As such, they have hit 3 ships in the last 24 hours, traffic has halted again, and they have re-affirmed their control over the strait, in spite of US Naval presence.
Actually the report is that they fired upon. It's not clear there were hits or real damage. Its posturing, and we'll see how the USN responds.
