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Comment Re:Could the AI bubble do something good? (Score 2) 54

They're both cheaper than fossil fuels, the main problem with nuclear has been that it can't be built in time to help with global warming and so can serve as a distraction that ties up resources that could've gone into renewables. A mad scramble to build them for the AI bubble could fix that, at least temporarily.

Comment Did they prevent access to enough information? (Score 1) 19

I'm reminded of what the Benetton F1 team did when rules specifically prevented teams from using wheel speed and gear information to run traction control systems. Instead they used a combination of incoming air stream pressure (similar to how an aircraft's pitot-static system works) in combination with some preloaded per-event data and track position information to make another traction control system that did the same job.

Information about past leases and public data from competing landlords might still be enough to do the job.

Comment Re:Dumbass puts huge money late into obvious bubbl (Score 1) 101

An LLM may be an ingredient, but the current commercial approach of trying to just build an LLM so big that it magically becomes an AGI somehow (or I think the idea may be to make a stochastic parrot good enough to be hard to distinguish from an AGI) sure doesn't look anything like a path, especially when the returns are diminishing so hard.

Comment Re:Dumbass puts huge money late into obvious bubbl (Score 5, Interesting) 101

Clearly we're misunderstanding each other. I was saying that investing in the bubbled asset was folly. I think the AI industry will continue to exist after the bubble pops but at a size no larger than the database industry today. So not zero value, but a small fraction of what it is currently.

I do think that the amount of money being invested in AI training for the improvements being produced is an absurd waste. They're spending larger and larger sums of money to produce rapidly vanishing improvements that customers have so far never shown an interest in paying enough to turn a profit with.

Comment Dumbass puts huge money late into obvious bubble (Score 4, Interesting) 101

This is going to be such a disastrous investment it's going to make Solyndra look like an insignificant whoopsie in comparison. While Chinese product dumping efforts can be hard to foresee, the obviousness and severity of the AI bubble has been on public display for anyone who cares to look for months now. And there's the potential to sink far more money into it. The winner of the AI race is going to be whoever wastes the least money on this folly, and the US looks set for a massive and easily avoidable loss now.

And let's not forget the end goal of this. If someone were to win this race in the fictional imagined scenario where AI didn't hit the core of Diminishing Returns Planet around ChatGPT 4 and there was some kind of path from LLM tech to AGI, the end result would be a technology that augments/replaces labor (same thing, don't be fooled by your boss) in a world dominated by an economic system where most people are workers who need to be able to find buyers for their labor. What could possibly go wrong with that?

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