Well, my mistake not recognizing the authority and expertise on student loans of someone who never had a student loan and likely received their math, financial, and legal education at a community college.
All it takes is two things: Common sense and a quick google search to affirm or refute the former. You don't need to be an expert to do that, yet obviously that flew right past you. Not my fault you don't have any. Again, cry me a river.
You'll have of course noted that the only way to make a verifiable point as to the relationship in the second section is to have full details in front of you about a specific loan for that loan, or, to analyze the effect as a whole, to have full details in front of you about every loan. I chose some specific parameters (rates in August 2023, $20K, 30-year repayment) because they're sufficient to illustrate my point:it's quite possible to forgive quite a bit of loan balance and still have the loan be a positive net effect on the Treasury. I also chose $10K and some pretty severe figures for your missed opportunity (an interest rate higher than any student has paid since the student loan program began, an unusually low but supportable figure for historic rates of return, every penny of those returns being taxed at high short-term capital gains rates every year instead of a small percentage as qualified dividends and the bulk as long-term capital gains at the end, and the like) because they're also sufficient to illustrate my point: instead of having at least $40K when you retire, you'll have $0.
Nice try, but no. Give me actual numbers and assumptions you're making.
Actually better yet, spare me your guesswork: This is just a straight up dumb idea to begin with for all sorts of reasons. Can you come out on top? Maybe. Are you guaranteed to quadruple your investment over 30 years? Fuck no you're not, yet you speak as if it's a sure thing anyways. There are a lot of ways this can go south, some of which I guarantee you haven't even considered. For one, I always carry a rainy day reserve, which camps in a 2.5 APY account. Your dumb advice would have me toss this out the window under the same reasoning. Your ideology always bitches about how so many people are one car breakdown away from financial ruin. Now watch what happens when this coincides with a recession. I can say that, at least for those around you, the reason why this happens is because they listen to your stupid advice. Again, because it's not obvious to you, this isn't anti-poor, it's anti-stupid. You're poor because you're stupid, not the other way around.
Beyond that, there are only two highly liquid investments I generally keep around: My RSUs, and my roth 401k. Both have given more than adequate returns (especially the RSUs) and in the case of the 401k, those returns are tax advantaged, which is especially useful given California doesn't even have a concept of capital gains. Certainly way better than a student loan that you have to keep paying on. All it takes is one badly timed recession to turn your student loan investment idea to shit, because guess what? You still have to pay it off no matter what the economy does, or worse, don't and let the interest keep building up. No fucking thanks.
Oh, sure, in the second relationship, I absolutely do assume that the government is selling bonds to fund the loans, and maybe you feel like that's not accurate.
How does this help your cause?
I'll return you to your community college finance class' discussion of the fungibility of money,
Never took any. I take it you did, yet obviously I have a better understanding of all of this than you do anyways.
That's why, for instance, your reference to inflation rates is inapposite: inflation effects both the nominal bond rate and the nominal loan rate.
That's nice and all, but these loans are subsidized. Oh and as for your "invest your student loan money" idea, it actually turns out that the government will charge you back interest if you break the terms of your promissory note by doing this, effectively yanking that subsidy from underneath you. That adds even more to the risk profile of an already dumb idea. There's smart risks, and there's dumb risks.
Um, promissory notes are contracts, not law.
How long did it take you to figure that out? Let me guess, half an hour? I mean shit, I even explicitly said that immediately before the bit you selectively quoted, and yet it still took a while for you to connect the dots. Oh wait -- don't tell me -- you somehow implicitly got the word "law" out of "codified", even after I said otherwise, right? That's yet more reading comprehension fail on your part.
But in any event, the problem your still-incorrect interpretation can't address is the vanishingly small number of students it would apply to, a number so small you'd be unable to generalize about them wasting your money on drunken parties
And look at how far you've gone over just that one flippant metaphor. Its like you've defined your life around it by now. I've even explained what is meant by it and yet it's still branded under your eyelids so you're even stuck seeing it even in your sleep and just can't get it out of your mind.
632 B.R. 632 would walk you through some of this as well
You'll need to be more specific. (And you're really outgunned here...)
but I'm out of time typing at someone that can't listen to better-informed and -educated people.
Cheese...and you said I'm smug. And you gotta love how you, a guy who recommends investing student loan money on something other than education expenses and even talks about it as if it's a sure bet, calls himself better informed and better educated. But I have to ask: Than who, exactly? I mean shit, at this point I think even Donald Trump would offer better investment advice than you. Wait -- don't tell me -- you attended one of his seminars didn't you? And that's where you're getting all of these dumb ideas from? In a rather twisted way, that would be the first thing out of you that actually made any sense.