Journal Journal: Expect Economic Change, not a 'Recovery'
Officially, as of July, 2009, 9.4% of the U.S. working population -- about 15 million people -- didn't have jobs. One in three of those unemployed people -- about 5 million of them -- had been out of work for 27 weeks or more, which is a long time to go without a paycheck. Another 8.8 million are "involuntary" part- time workers, and 2.3 million were considered "marginally attached to the labor force," which basically means they have given up looking for on-the-books jobs.
These figures come from a Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Summary issued on August 9. 2009.
What these figures don't tell you is that a lot of unemployed and underemployed people have maxed their credit cards, lost their homes to foreclosure, run up medical bills they can't pay because they lost their health insurance along with their jobs or are otherwise in deep financial shit.
None of us ("us" because I'm one of these people) are going to buy a new car this year or next year. Or, probably, the year after next or the year after that. Even if we all find work tomorrow, our credit is shot. No legitimate bank or other financial institution is going to loan us money to buy a car or to make any other major purchase. Sure, there will be "credit" available to us in the form of "rent to own" schemes and other high-interest ripoffs, but I don't think a lot of us are going to go that route. We are going to be very careful with our money for many years to come.
Lots of 'Good Jobs' Will Never Come Back
A whole lot of us aren't ever going to make as much money in the future as we did before the current economic situation began. Government bailouts and 'cash for clunkers' programs aside, American employment in the car-building industry is way down, and the laid-off car factory workers who are finding jobs at all are working for a lot less money than they were five or six years ago. Ditto laid-off journalists and people in lots of other businesses that are shrinking and probably won't grow again in our lifetimes.
Think about furniture builders and furniture salespeople. If those of us with shrunken incomes don't buy furniture (and I assure you, new furniture is not a priority for someone struggling to pay bills and find affordable health insurance), then furniture factories and retailers lay off even more people than they already have. That means even fewer people who can afford a restaurant meal and a movie ticket, which means more layoffs, which means a bunch of peope will hold onto old computers instead of getting new ones. And so on.
Meanwhile, those of us who mange to get our hands on any money at all are saving frantically. Whoopee-doo. We Americans got castigated for being spendthrifts instead of savers only a few years ago, and now that we're saving money we're delaying "the recovery."
The thing is, most of us do not want to go back to our old spending habits. We have learned, the hard way, that a seemingly secure job can evaporate and leave us worrying about paying bills that only a week before our layoffs didn't seem very large. So we are being very conservative with our money. We're not financially scarred as badly as our depression-survivor parents or grandparents, but we are learning that we really don't have to replace our 42" HDTVs with 52" HDTVs to feel good about ourselves.
Fabulous Furry Freak Brother Freewheelin' Franklin may have said, "dope will get you through times of money better than money will get you through times of no dope," but money will get you through rough times a lot better than furniture, clothes, HDTVs, computers (especially if they run Vista) and even memories of live concerts you went to before they all cost $50+ per seat, not counting Ticketron "service charges" and other crazy add-on fees.
This new financial conservatism is not infecting only the laid-off legions whose incomes may be permanently downsized, but their families and friends. You never know where the Layoff Lightning will strike next. Indeed, just before I started typing this paragraph, I learned that an IT news operation where several friends work is being sold.
Resumes are being dusted off -- and considering the lack of jobs in journalism right now, so are aluminum can collection bags and "will work for food" signs.
Get Ready for Downsizing
If you haven't already downsized (or haven't been forcibly downsized yet) you may want to consider it.
American homes have gotten much larger in the last few decades, especially here in Florida. Many newer suburban homes are literally twice as large as the ones commonly built around here in the 1960s and 1970s. If you own one of these oversized dwellings, you may want to consider renting out part of it. A lot of single people and childless couples can't afford apartments now, and will be happy to live in one or two of your rooms and even share a bathroom. Sure, your kids may have to double up instead of each having his or her own space, but kids managed to share rooms (heck, whole families have managed to share single rooms) for thousands of years.
You have a fuel hog car. Can't afford something newer and more efficient? Drive less. Every mile you don't drive is money you don't spend on gas and maintenance. And if you have two cars, use the more fuel-efficient of the two for longer trips. You may even want to consider selling one of your two cars and making do with one. Believe it or not, 100 years ago most Americans didn't have cars at all, and managed to survive.
Used clothes, appliances, and furniture: I've found that church-run thrift shops almost always offer better deals than the better-known Salvation Army and Goodwill stores. And used appliances cost between 1/4 and 1/2 of new ones. My wife and I have a "stacked" washer and dryer unit we bought for about 25% of what a similar new one runs.
Mobile homes: We live in one. We beefed up the insulation to the point where our monthly electric bill -- and we use electricity for heat, A/C, cooking, and everything else -- stays under $90 per month. We also have monster tie-downs and a roofover, along with new "140 mph" windows and other anti-hurricane safeguards. What we don't have is much square footage, as in about 640 total as opposed to 1400+ in the house we gave up when I lost my job. No problem. We live in Florida, and our outdoor patio space is at least as large as our indoor space, so we don't feel cramped.
Making Do With Half as Much. Or One-fourth as Much
We accept the fact that our income for the rest of our lives will be somewhere between 1/4 and 1/2 as much as it was during my peak earning years. Instead of a trailerable 15' sailboat, a car-top kayak will have to do. Restaurant meals are now once-in-a-while luxuries, not something to be enjoyed two or three time a week. And so on.
Our current income is much closer to the federally-set poverty level (for two people) of $14,570 than to the six-figure level. But we aren't poor. We are just frugal.
I suspect that this is going to be the new American way. Some will strive and struggle to get ahead and will stress themselves out, while a whole lot of people are going to accept having less "stuff" than they used to.
Adjusting to this new reality is not going to be easy for everyone, but it's the way things are going to be for a long, long time. So we might as well get used to it.
See more of my commentaries (along with videos and other natterings) at Roblimo.com