Xbox 360 Wins Through 2009? 306
simoniker writes "As part of a recent MI6 Conference presentation, IDG's Jason Anderson made predictions on the North American installed base of the next-gen consoles through 2008. He predicts that the Xbox 360 will continue to hold a lead into 2009, with the PS3 just behind and the Wii trailing significantly. In particular: 'In 2008, Anderson suggests 15.5 million units in homes for the Xbox 360, 13.5 million for PS3, and 6.8 million for Wii.' Is the Wii really going to trail by so much, or do the analysts not 'get it'?"
where are these numbers coming from? (Score:5, Insightful)
Makes sense... (Score:3, Insightful)
360 has a head start and will enjoy price drop advantages over the PS3, which means the PS3 has to close the gap before it can repeat the PS2's sales dominance. If the Wii performs the same as the GC, it's going to be a year behind the 360. At the end of this cycle of consoles the numbers could be identical, it's just that the 360 is here NOW.
Attention Instead of Science (Score:5, Insightful)
Problem is, we'll never be able to say, "Hypothetically, if all three had came out at the same time, PS3 would have carried strong through 2009." Why can't we say that? Because we observe one experiment (what really happens) and we have no control over the variables and the control factors in the experiment. You can't apply the scientific process to much of economics so why is it considered a science? Things like the Phillips Curve [wikipedia.org] hold true for 30 years and then suddenly fall flat on their face so now it's not so much a curve as a movable line that can be placed anywhere automagically.
It's almost painfully obvious that there's very little pertinent data to observe to make this assumption about the XBox, so why make any predictions at all?! Oh, that's right, attention & web traffic.
IMO... (Score:2, Insightful)
Wii FTW!!!
From the mysterious future! (Score:3, Insightful)
seriously. I don't think analysts' predictions are news; especially when they're predicting the sales trend of products that havne't been released, let alone really shown off, yet. And with something as dynamic as a videogame console. I mean, the primary deciding factor (I thought) in the sales of a system are the games that are released. who's to say that the PS3 won't have a dozen games as spectacular and fun as Shadow of the Colossus? What's to say that the Wii isn't going to blow M$ and Sony out of the water?
I really don't get why this was posted.
as an asside; I'm really looking forward to the Wii. the 360 blew all my expectations out of the water (I really expected it to be slightly more entertaining than fecal matter smeared into a faux mustache on an overly inflated blowup doll). I had high hopes for the PS3, but now, I really don't know and perhaps sony has its head so far up its ass, that I wouldn't be surprised if they botch the whole system worse than atari did with the jaguar. worse than sega did with the saturn.
wii (Score:5, Insightful)
if the more affordable Wii ends up being the second sstem of every PS3 or 360 owner, it's possible that it could make a run at the top spot in terms of installed base
Not that every 360 or PS3 owner will also purchase a Wii, but many probably will. Not to mention the die-hard nintendo fanbase that will buy only the Wii. Also if nintendo's plan for how they intend to market the Wii works out then many non-gamers will be converted by the Wii which adds many additional sales.
But honestly, I don't really care. I'm buying a Wii day one because it's going to kick ass. I probably won't ever buy a 360, but I may buy a PS3 in a few years when the price becomes reasonable.
Re:Makes sense... [Or Not] (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Attention Instead of Science (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:IMO... (Score:5, Insightful)
You are not, by any stretch of the inagination, the intended audience of next gen. consoles.
Re:Attention Instead of Science (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:Makes sense... (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:Eh? (Score:5, Insightful)
And that's why the prediction is likely wrong: it looks like he's predicting numbers based on what the "average gamer" will do. Nintendo's not targeting the "average gamer". Neither is Sony, for that matter: $500 is outside of what the average gamer will pay for a console.
The "non-gamer" community is still much larger than the "average gamer" community. If Nintendo manages to convince a good portion of them to buy a Wii, they'll dominate in terms of market share.
Re:Wii Underrated ? (Score:5, Insightful)
You'd think they'd be related, or something. :(
Gamers Prefer Quantity Over Quality (Score:5, Insightful)
The quantity question is shaking up to look the same, at least initially, for the next generation. The majority of next generation previews I've seen are for 360/PS3, with an absolute dearth of high profile previews for Wii.
If the quantity of game selection were the sole criteria, I'd say the analyst is roughly right in his predictions at least for the near term. PS3 will have a huge advantage over the 360 in the number of Japanese developed games, so I expect to eventually overtake it.
The obvious wildcards are how successful the Wii will be in expanding the market and bringing back lapsed gamers. And how long will the PS3 sell for a premium. If Nintendo can translate E3 success into actually getting devlopers to release games on the Wii, their chance for success will rise dramatically.
fishy statistics (Score:1, Insightful)
In TFA: "IDG also analyzed multiple console ownership, and found that there was a decent amount of crossover [...] with most crossover happening when those households also chose to pick up a Wii."
The above statement in the article contradicts his statement about Wii trailing significantly behind the others. If most of the crossover ownerships of consoles include the Wii, and the amount of crossover is decent, then you would think that the Wii would actually be significantly ahead of the others.
I get tired of weak, bias, and contradicting predictions/statistics just to sell articles. Here is a better prediction: I predict that during that same time Microsoft will spend billions more trying to push their console, Sony will be announcing a new feature for PS3 called the kitchen sink, and Wii gamers will have perma-grin. I don't think that it makes a difference how many consoles are sold of each, success of consoles comes from how well each company penetrates their target marketing area and how successful the unique games are.
hmmm (Score:2, Insightful)
it will be xbox360 vs wii. higher quality graphics, online play vs innovative games and play style. the 360 will be out earlier, but the wii will be released cheaper than the 360 could probably ever become. i'm putting the wii on top with this one. i know i'll be buying one (and not a 360/ps3).
Re:wii (Score:1, Insightful)
Re:does he think he is nostradamus or something? (Score:4, Insightful)
Where did you get this idea. They said they wanted to make it accesable for all, a statement they make every release. They have yet to change their tactic of garnering faith with the younger demographic.
I have to agree with the grandparent: how can you make predictions about systems as revolutionary as the PS3 (in terms of price) and the Wii (in terms of target audience)? There's just no information about it whatsoever.
For the PS3, you do price point analysis. The product doesn't have to be the same. You analyze consumer response in comparison to price point increases that are on par with Sony's annouced prcing. This will give you a response trend.
For the Wii, that target audience has been disected like a frog. Kid friendly with a dash of innovation. You may think it is completely irrelevant - but the biggest trends to compare this to is candy. WTF?!!! Yep, candy. Candy started taking an "interactive" and "electronic" aspect about a decade ago. It used to be all Bazooka Joes and Pixie Stix, now its candy that beeps and comes in cool packaging that moves or does something utilizing the candy. Yeah, I know we had whistle pops way back in the day - but we also had Space Wars too. You can get fairly accurate trends out of consumer response to drastic new ideas applied to common ubiquitous entities - especially as candy is pretty attractive to the target group Nintendo is going after.
You have to remeber this is trend analysis, its not an exact science. You take a whole bunch of statistics with related aspects, qualify them - and then analyze the results in relation to what you're trying to predict. You can do this without having existing statistics on exact subject matter.
Then you'd be wrong, though, as the DS and the PSP have an equivalent install base in the US, for instance. Where the DS is decimating the PSP is in Japan - where the DS effectively tapped a new demographic.
Uhh, no - he's spot on. Even if the PSP and DS have similar install bases, I'd like to see your references - Nintendo has a long history of handheld dominance. That's established. One neck and neck race between two devices while ignoring the GB Advance SP is a flawed analysis. Add those numbers and you see that Nintendo is still owning handheld. The SP is still selling, making it a competator. I guess you meant PSP vs. DS, not true market.
Re:IMO... (Score:3, Insightful)
How is he not a gamer? He plays games, he is actually creative in his gaming (how does one go about hooking a 360 controller to a Mac Mini?), that seems the definition. I didn't think that the unthinking reflex to spend money on the VERY dubious bleeding edge was contained in the definition of gamer. I guess I'm not a gamer either since I still don't own an XBox or PS2, and refuse to buy a 360, ignoring the fact I have every retro console, and use them daily. Owning a Nintendo product exclusively, is that what precludes his being a gamer?
I really don't understand your definition of what makes a gamer... I always thought it was, put simply, one who plays a shit-ton of games, and is quite serious about it.
Yawn... (Score:2, Insightful)
Whilst a good handful of people I know are very happy with their Xbox360s, and a one or two are even looking forward to getting their hands on a PS3, without exception everyone I've spoken to about the Wii is very excited about it, and has every intention of buying one soon after release. There's a genuine enthusiasm for the product, which isn't dampened by a high console price like the PS3.
I mean, even Microsoft and Sony are expecting people to buy a Wii as a second machine. If we're talking basic number of units sold, it's hard to see how Nintendo aren't going to quickly take the lead.
The Gamecube had few real world advantages over the other consoles in the last/current generation of consoles, and without the help of a huge Microsoft or Sony scale marketing campaign, it's not hard to see why it was a relative failure.
This time around, there's the (expected) significantly lower price point, the fact that it truly offers something different in the form of a new controller, a download service with a good solid 20 year back catalogue of games, and of course interraction with the DS. Any one of these could made quite a difference, but together, I think we're looking at a definite reclaiming of ground by Nintendo in this round.
Re:Makes sense... [Or Not] (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:IMO... (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Wii Underrated ? (Score:4, Insightful)
I'm not making a prediction though, I think it's way to early to do that when two of the systems in question aren't even available. I'm just saying that it's a pretty big wild card, all three companies are placing pretty big bets on the future of the industry, and the one that's right stands to get the most users. MS and Sony are both betting on variations on an HD path, and Nintendo is angling to grow by expanding the market to include more people not considered conventional gamers.
No surprise.. (Score:2, Insightful)
And down the frontpage I see an article about Sony increasing game prices - then remember the DRM spyware thing - what is this? I think Sony is just bleeding the existing customer base dry because they know that the PS3 is a dud and need all the revenue they can. And don't get me started on the crappyness of the potentially excellent PSP firmware (Disabling Homebrew? Can't play MP3 from browser? SLOW browser? Outdated flash when launched?)
Wake up Sony, you're a failing company - both from an internal and external point of view - your products are late, you over-control your customers and treat them like dirt.
There was a time when Sony was the only brand that i'd but - why? - QUALITY.
Good riddance - i'd love it if they lost this 'war' because they don't deserve to win. If only I didn't loathe M$ so much i'd be buying me a 360.
SONY - wake up and smell the coffee.
Forget Blu-ray, no one will pay that price for a console just for a pseudo-functional movie player (remember how crappy the PS2 DVD player is!!)
Respect your customers.
Get the PS3 to market at a price that will actually sell some units.
Re:Wii Underrated ? (Score:2, Insightful)
Just how much space will major retailers give the Wii? I would imagine that it would somehow be related to the past success of Nintendo products in the marketplace.
Could the Wii's potential in the market be affected by small shelf-space allocation due to the limited success of the GC?
This makes me think I've been looking at this the wrong way. I think the Wii is going to offer innovation above and beyond the competition. In a perfect world, this would translate into big sales.
I suppose Nintendo can counter this by a huge advertising blitz. As far as I know, they are already involved in one. Hell, a few weeks (months?) ago I saw a Nintendo ad in Glamour (my gf's copy...obviously).
Its a prediction, stop freaking out (Score:2, Insightful)
That being said, it does give the industry some information so that they can lay initial plans for the next 5 to 10 years. (Yes, a number of companies do plan at least this far in advance despite the speed at which the industry changes.)
Re:IMO... (Score:5, Insightful)
I've seen this argument used a lot to defend Sony, but it's very frequently used against people (like me) who say the PS3 is too expensive, but they will probably buy a Wii. If someone is going to buy a next-gen console, then whether Sony considers them the "intended audience" or not, they are the next-gen audience. The point is that Nintendo has been trying very hard lately to expand their audience to include more than just devoted hard-core gamers, and so far it shows signs of working (I recently bought a DS Lite after not owning a console since the SNES, and I have multiple friends in the same boat -- it's almost the perfect "casual gamer" system [my wife, who almost never plays video games, is now most of the way through New Super Mario Bros.])
So, when all these people who are not in the traditional "next-gen" market say that they will be buying a next-gen system, and that it will not be the PS3, how can you dismiss it with "Well, you aren't the target audience?" Do console sales only count if they're buyers that Sony is interested in?
Strategy Schmategy (Score:4, Insightful)
Let's see, what next-gen platform is PS2 (and PSX) compatible?
Sony is betting the farm on a happy convergence of Blu-ray, compelling PS3 titles, and HDTV critical mass.
Microsoft is betting (but not the farm) on getting in first. Microsoft intends to own your digital hub, and they're prepared to lose a whole pile of money getting there. We've seen them behave similarly with Access (which was used to kill Paradox, et al), Video for Windows / Windows Media Player, Internet Explorer, and so on. There's a huge market at stake, and it's worth billions to kill its current owner. The fact that this is technically illegal is a minor annoyance.
Indeed by making the XBox 360 far more technically distinct from a Windows PC than the XBox (which basically was a PC) Microsoft may be trying to avoid potential antitrust action (it could be argued that XBox was an attempt to leverage its desktop monopoly power, whereas XBox 360 is merely an attempt to buy into a new market by using money made with its desktop monopoly). It seems highly unlikely they did it to make developers happy. (Yay, another bizarro platform with a new API to develop for!)
So far, getting in first hasn't worked very well for Atari, Colecovision, Nintendo, and Sega, so good luck to Microsoft there. It's not clear to what extent the PS2's success was driven by it's serving as a (for the time) inexpensive, high quality DVD-player (we've bought and stopped using three or four DVD players since we bought our PS2, and the PS2 still works -- even if it does ask you to override parental controls for almost every DVD; all but one of the other DVD players has eaten it).
In a sense, the success or failure of the Wii is about as relevant to the Sony/Microsoft battle for control of your "digital lifestyle" as the success or failure of the DS (or PSP), which is to say -- not totally irrelevant, but not central. No sane person is going to store the only copy of their family photographs on a PSP. The reason the Wii is so much more exciting (to gamers) than its competitors is that Nintendo is all about games. Wii will never by our digital hub, and we don't care.
Frankly, I wish someone would figure out that a digital hub ought, basically, to be an application-agnostic, really big, reliable mass storage device, and all the other crap should be peripheral.
Tags != Comments (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Gamers Prefer Quantity Over Quality (Score:3, Insightful)
Or, to further comment, it could be because the guy did a crappy analysis.
Take a look at his DS/PSP comparison : he states the PSP is like 70%, and the DS is far lower. From gamerankings.com's own data, that seems to be because of a large number of games with very few reviews for the DS. If you restrict the set to only games reviewed by 50 or more reviews (i.e. statistically sound data), the DS is ahead of the PSP (80% to 77%).
Just poor analysis.
Re:where are these numbers coming from? (Score:2, Insightful)
xbox 360 - early release, disappointing hardware malfunctions, release lineup consisting of Halo 2 and... uh... Halo 2, expensive, basically xbox on crack
ps3 - great console, disappointing launch software, far to damn expensive to be worth buying
wii - the most affordable of the three, fully backwards-compatible, two kick-ass release games (SSBB, ZTP), strange controller, online gameplay
I'm sticking with the wii, personally. I'm down with the SSBB and ZTP.
Re:where are these numbers coming from? (Score:2, Insightful)
The only reason most people get a console is that they avoid exactly that.
Re:where are these numbers coming from? (Score:3, Insightful)
Wii is counting on an audience that doesn't play video games.
If by "video games" you mean FPS, then yeah. They're not counting o an audience that doesn't play video games, they're counting on an audience that doesn't play FPS because the controls are way too complicated for them. Grandma may be a decent shot with her .45, but not be able to play Quake worth a damn. The Wii controller is an equalizer in that respect, and Nintendo is betting it'll bring more people to games that they can't play with current controllers.