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Xbox 360 Wins Through 2009? 306

Posted by Zonk
from the more-fun-with-analysts dept.
simoniker writes "As part of a recent MI6 Conference presentation, IDG's Jason Anderson made predictions on the North American installed base of the next-gen consoles through 2008. He predicts that the Xbox 360 will continue to hold a lead into 2009, with the PS3 just behind and the Wii trailing significantly. In particular: 'In 2008, Anderson suggests 15.5 million units in homes for the Xbox 360, 13.5 million for PS3, and 6.8 million for Wii.' Is the Wii really going to trail by so much, or do the analysts not 'get it'?"
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Xbox 360 Wins Through 2009?

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  • by paradigmdream (915171) on Friday June 30, 2006 @11:44AM (#15636665) Homepage
    how can they suggest those numbers for the ps3 and wii if they haven't even launched yet?
  • Makes sense... (Score:3, Insightful)

    by PFI_Optix (936301) on Friday June 30, 2006 @11:44AM (#15636668) Journal
    Look at current console trends. PS2 has XBOX and GC significantly outsold.

    360 has a head start and will enjoy price drop advantages over the PS3, which means the PS3 has to close the gap before it can repeat the PS2's sales dominance. If the Wii performs the same as the GC, it's going to be a year behind the 360. At the end of this cycle of consoles the numbers could be identical, it's just that the 360 is here NOW.
    • Re:Makes sense... (Score:3, Informative)

      by PFI_Optix (936301)
      Upon reading that again, i realize it doesn't make as much sense as I thought. I'll clarify:

      If the PS3, 360, and Wii sold exactly the same numbers as the PS2, XBOX, and GC, the 360 would dominate for a while just because it was on the market first and will benefit from early price drops that keep it competitive. I have no doubt that in the end the PS3 will outsell the 360 and the Wii will at least come close to matching it, but it's going to take a couple of years for them to reach the price points and deve
      • Re:Makes sense... (Score:2, Insightful)

        by (A)*(B)!0_- (888552)
        "I have no doubt that in the end the PS3 will outsell the 360 and the Wii will at least come close to matching it, but it's going to take a couple of years for them to reach the price points and develop the game libraries that 360 has a head start on."
        And I have no doubt that the PS3 is going to be a disaster for Sony. It's nice that we're so doubtless - isn't it? So, what's the wager friend?
        • Yes. An unmitigated disaster. But on the plus side it will sell more units than the 3D0, Neo-Geo, and Jaguar combined.
          • But were the 3DO, Neo-Geo, or Jaguar priced far above the competition with no noticeable advantages over said competition?
            • The 3DO was. Other than that, no :)
              • Dude, Trip's 3DO platform might have been expensive (although, funny enough, it was actually just a spec, which was kind of clever on Trip Hawkin's part, to just license the spec and let others do the work), but the neo-geo was butt bitingly expensive as well. They both ran, if my memory serves, somewhere around $600 on the shelves when they came out. And this was in the mid-90's. That's why the Neo-geo sold like 4 players in North America. Which (one second while I look up my sales stats...) yes, was actua
    • by JayDot (920899) on Friday June 30, 2006 @11:57AM (#15636801) Journal
      Only problem is that the Wii isn't the GC. Sure, the proc and graphics may not be a major new innovation, but the hype about the Wii has always been the new controller. Speaking as a marketing student, Nintendo has done a very capable job of marketing the new product, keeping it in the public eye, and giving encouraging price point nods. I predict this analyst prediction will be totally off the wall. Can I get paid too, since I have just as much insight on the yet-to-be-released PS3 and Wii as this writer?
      • Their whole stratagy has been games for everyone. That is what sets is apart from the Gamecube (and especially the PS3). Just make somthing cheap, something that anyone can play (*cough* and afford *cough*).
      • That is exactly right. I think that innovation (touch generation and all that jazz) is going to shake things up. I have friends that have never spent a buck on video games buying DS Lites. They love having _fun_ with the device, playing the games they actually want to play like Sudoku, Brain Age, etc. Fun little diversions from an inexpensive little device.
    • How does that make sense???

      The Nintendo DS came out AFTER the PSP and it has a gigantic lead over the PSP.

      How did this amazing thing happen?

      very simply. Nintendo priced it to sell and has lots of games that are inexpensive and are fun.

      the Wii looks like it will release at the $199.00 price point with game from 50%-25% cheaper than all other platforms = it will absolutely kill the other platforms in game sales and units sold.

      I dont car if the gotta have game of the century is on the PS3 or XBOX360. someone
  • by preppypoof (943414) on Friday June 30, 2006 @11:44AM (#15636669)
    how can you predict consumer preference? who would have predicted, for instance, the overwhelming popularity of the nintendo DS over the PSP?
    • how can you predict consumer preference?

      Years of trends coupled with current market research. The good analysts can be pretty accurate; they've got 20+ years of consumer preferences to reference.

      who would have predicted, for instance, the overwhelming popularity of the nintendo DS over the PSP?

      Me :)

      Nintendo has an established handheld line, Sony just jumped in. Not to mention Sony included features most people didn't care about, like that goofy UMD movie format that costs more than a DVD and is only compat
      • by barawn (25691) on Friday June 30, 2006 @12:05PM (#15636877) Homepage
        Years of trends coupled with current market research. The good analysts can be pretty accurate; they've got 20+ years of consumer preferences to reference.

        The problem here though is that both Sony and Nintendo are going outside those consumer trends - the most equivalent console to the PS3 in terms of cost is the Neo Geo, and there's not much trend information there to extract. In addition, Nintendo's targeting a demographic which is completely outside previous generations, much like they did with the DS.

        I have to agree with the grandparent: how can you make predictions about systems as revolutionary as the PS3 (in terms of price) and the Wii (in terms of target audience)? There's just no information about it whatsoever.

        You could try to do market research, but that's difficult to do, considering neither Sony nor Nintendo have started marketing the systems yet.

        Nintendo has an established handheld line, Sony just jumped in. Not to mention Sony included features most people didn't care about, like that goofy UMD movie format that costs more than a DVD and is only compatible with the PSP.

        Then you'd be wrong, though, as the DS and the PSP have an equivalent install base in the US, for instance. Where the DS is decimating the PSP is in Japan - where the DS effectively tapped a new demographic.

        You can see that he's kindof dismissing that possibility in the DS/PSP numbers for next year: he predicts the gap to increase, but not significantly. If the DS Lite follows the Japan behavior, that gap will grow incredibly.

        He kindof lost me when he started talking about game quality, though - game quality rankings aren't absolute: they're relative to the console that they're on - which means that the more games a system has, the lower the average ranking is going to be. This isn't just because all of the games are crap - it's because the ranking scale got stretched due to the raised bar.
        • The install base isn't the same; you've fallen into the "Sold/Shipped" trap. Nintendo has reported more DSs sold than Sony has shipped. That is a huge gap.
          • According to the numbers in that article, the install base is roughly the same in the US, or will be by the end of the year - to quote:

            For handhelds, in 2006 the group breaks the numbers down to 34.4 million installed units for the Game Boy Advance, 8.7 million for PSP, and 8.8 million for DS.


            If you disagree with those numbers, hey, that's another reason why he's wrong.
        • Thank you for the Neo Geo comparison, I like the analogy. Flippantly, does this mean that the PS3 will be the console that every 13 year old kid lusts over, but no one ever buys?

          I think the PS3 will have a degree of success, but I think that it will be second fiddle to the 360, just like the article says, but in the global market I don't know if the Wii will be far third. Globally the GameCube is in 2nd right now to the PS2, why would this be any different now? I think there even is a chance in hell of the Wii killing both competitors in Japan.

          I think the main thing the Wii has going against it is Nintendo's false association with kiddie games (like someone is going to let their kids play RE4).

          Not an expert here, but it is fun to think about.
        • by Irish_Samurai (224931) on Friday June 30, 2006 @12:42PM (#15637174)
          In addition, Nintendo's targeting a demographic which is completely outside previous generations,
          Where did you get this idea. They said they wanted to make it accesable for all, a statement they make every release. They have yet to change their tactic of garnering faith with the younger demographic.

          I have to agree with the grandparent: how can you make predictions about systems as revolutionary as the PS3 (in terms of price) and the Wii (in terms of target audience)? There's just no information about it whatsoever.

          For the PS3, you do price point analysis. The product doesn't have to be the same. You analyze consumer response in comparison to price point increases that are on par with Sony's annouced prcing. This will give you a response trend.

          For the Wii, that target audience has been disected like a frog. Kid friendly with a dash of innovation. You may think it is completely irrelevant - but the biggest trends to compare this to is candy. WTF?!!! Yep, candy. Candy started taking an "interactive" and "electronic" aspect about a decade ago. It used to be all Bazooka Joes and Pixie Stix, now its candy that beeps and comes in cool packaging that moves or does something utilizing the candy. Yeah, I know we had whistle pops way back in the day - but we also had Space Wars too. You can get fairly accurate trends out of consumer response to drastic new ideas applied to common ubiquitous entities - especially as candy is pretty attractive to the target group Nintendo is going after.

          You have to remeber this is trend analysis, its not an exact science. You take a whole bunch of statistics with related aspects, qualify them - and then analyze the results in relation to what you're trying to predict. You can do this without having existing statistics on exact subject matter.

          Then you'd be wrong, though, as the DS and the PSP have an equivalent install base in the US, for instance. Where the DS is decimating the PSP is in Japan - where the DS effectively tapped a new demographic.

          Uhh, no - he's spot on. Even if the PSP and DS have similar install bases, I'd like to see your references - Nintendo has a long history of handheld dominance. That's established. One neck and neck race between two devices while ignoring the GB Advance SP is a flawed analysis. Add those numbers and you see that Nintendo is still owning handheld. The SP is still selling, making it a competator. I guess you meant PSP vs. DS, not true market.

          • Where did you get this idea. They said they wanted to make it accesable for all, a statement they make every release. They have yet to change their tactic of garnering faith with the younger demographic.

            Yes, they have. Take a look at the games they have for the DS in Japan. The demographic buying a DS is completely different than those that bought a GBA.

            They're not targeting kids. They're targeting everyone else. Girls, adults, grandparents, etc. That's what they are currently doing in Japan with the DS. Yo
            • Yes, they have. Take a look at the games they have for the DS in Japan. The demographic buying a DS is completely different than those that bought a GBA.

              Order of events time. They released this game, it was a huge hit - single handedly grabbing a huge chunk of adult gameers, then Nintendo goes "Hey, we can get all these guys too." This was not an original strategy, this was a tactical change based on critical events.

              You think they're going to stop with Wii?

              Considering the Japanese are a commuter culture, ma
              • I have a problem taking someone seriously when they denounce a whole article but are willing to use statistics from it as argumental fulcrums. Then say, well if the statistics are wrong, that's another reason he's wrong. It would also be the reason you would be wrong too.

                What ? That doesn't make any sense: I disagree with the logic in the article. I have no interest as to whether or not the numbers are correct.

                If the numbers are wrong, then ignore my argument (and his too). I don't care. If someone says "t
                • Nintendo has an established handheld line, Sony just jumped in. Not to mention Sony included features most people didn't care about, like that goofy UMD movie format that costs more than a DVD and is only compatible with the PSP.

                  Then you'd be wrong, though, as the DS and the PSP have an equivalent install base in the US, for instance. Where the DS is decimating the PSP is in Japan - where the DS effectively tapped a new demographic.

                  You can see that he's kindof dismissing that possibility in the DS/PSP numb
            • According to the article, the PSP and the DS are neck and neck.

              In terms of North American install base, perhaps.

              I'm not so sure that's all that meaningful a metric of success, though. Doesn't the massive dominance of the DS in Japan count for something? What about the number of game titles purchased per system?
              • I'm not so sure that's all that meaningful a metric of success, though. Doesn't the massive dominance of the DS in Japan count for something? What about the number of game titles purchased per system?

                I agree. In fact, that was my original point before people started to get bogged down in where my numbers came from (which is hilarious, considering they came from the article).

                I think the reason the DS is doing so well in Japan is because they started getting another demographic - girls, adults, etc. - with Ni


        • The problem here though is that both Sony and Nintendo are going outside those consumer trends - the most equivalent console to the PS3 in terms of cost is the Neo Geo, and there's not much trend information there to extract. In addition, Nintendo's targeting a demographic which is completely outside previous generations, much like they did with the DS.

          I have to agree with the grandparent: how can you make predictions about systems as revolutionary as the PS3 (in terms of price) and the Wii (in terms of tar
          • What's revolutionary about the PS3 is its price.

            As has been mentioned, if you adjust for inflation, (or even if you don't) it's not more expensive than the neo-geo was.

            Exactly. And the Neo-Geo's price wasn't mainstream, because the console itself wasn't mainstream - at least, in the end, it wasn't. Sony's hoping to sell a mainstream product at a premium price, and that hasn't been done before.

            Are you kidding? They've both started. Maybe not directly to consumers

            That's what I meant. By "market research" I me
    • The people who bought it early?
      I? Atleast wished for, but Nintendo did a bad job in Europe compared to Sony.
  • In 2008, Anderson suggests 15.5 million units in homes for the Xbox 360, 13.5 million for PS3, and 6.8 million for Wii.' Is the Wii really going to trail by so much, or do the analysts not 'get it'?
    The analysts probably get it. But their talking sepeculation based on economics. Economics is an in-exact science. More specifically, it's an observational science--much like weather forecasting.

    Problem is, we'll never be able to say, "Hypothetically, if all three had came out at the same time, PS3 would have carried strong through 2009." Why can't we say that? Because we observe one experiment (what really happens) and we have no control over the variables and the control factors in the experiment. You can't apply the scientific process to much of economics so why is it considered a science? Things like the Phillips Curve [wikipedia.org] hold true for 30 years and then suddenly fall flat on their face so now it's not so much a curve as a movable line that can be placed anywhere automagically.

    It's almost painfully obvious that there's very little pertinent data to observe to make this assumption about the XBox, so why make any predictions at all?! Oh, that's right, attention & web traffic.
    • Ahh... economics. If all the economists in the world were laid end to end, they still wouldn't reach a conclusion. I'm fairly sure that someone will come along and predict the opposite - just in case it happens so all ends are covered.
    • My Econ prof in college always phrased the question "All other things being equal, if x changes in this direction, y will change in that direction." Problem with trying to apply economic analysis to life is that it's fluid, meaning all the other things are never staying equal.
    • > Things like the Phillips Curve [wikipedia.org] hold true for 30 years and then suddenly fall flat on their face so now it's not so much a curve as a movable line that can be placed anywhere automagically.

      Revision of a model in the face of new data is how all sciences progress. Also, you mistate the new theory behind the Phillips Curve. In the short run, the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment still holds. In the long run, the Phillips Curve is a vertical line, but it can't be plotted anywher
  • IMO... (Score:2, Insightful)

    by Lobo (10944)
    Parents won't be able to afford the $600 next gen units so...

    Wii FTW!!!
    • Re:IMO... (Score:3, Interesting)

      by richdun (672214)
      FTW indeed. Couple that with that ridiculous story yesterday about Sony suggesting game prices could go up even further from $59, and you're right on the money (thank you, thank you, I'll be here all week!)

      Case in point - me. Last weekend, after contemplating a Xbox 360 purchase for months, I decided instead to just buy an Xbox 360 controller and hook it up to the Mac Mini already sitting next to my HDTV (gaming on a Mac - I know, blasphemy). Add Halo for Mac and some emulators, and I've got a pretty nic
      • Re:IMO... (Score:5, Insightful)

        by Neoprofin (871029) <.neoprofin. .at. .hotmail.com.> on Friday June 30, 2006 @12:02PM (#15636853)
        And to think, if you were willing to give up the one or two new games that you are only considering buying you could do the whole thing for the $30 cost of Halo and call it a day.

        You are not, by any stretch of the inagination, the intended audience of next gen. consoles.
        • You are not, by any stretch of the inagination, the intended audience of next gen. consoles.

          Except for the Wii, which he says he's planning on buying, and that's exactly the reason that Nintendo looks like the next-gen winner.

          When you said that you were engaging in the same type of thinking that made Sony decide that a $600 price point wasn't a bad idea.

        • Re:IMO... (Score:5, Insightful)

          by Garse Janacek (554329) on Friday June 30, 2006 @03:06PM (#15638413)

          I've seen this argument used a lot to defend Sony, but it's very frequently used against people (like me) who say the PS3 is too expensive, but they will probably buy a Wii. If someone is going to buy a next-gen console, then whether Sony considers them the "intended audience" or not, they are the next-gen audience. The point is that Nintendo has been trying very hard lately to expand their audience to include more than just devoted hard-core gamers, and so far it shows signs of working (I recently bought a DS Lite after not owning a console since the SNES, and I have multiple friends in the same boat -- it's almost the perfect "casual gamer" system [my wife, who almost never plays video games, is now most of the way through New Super Mario Bros.])

          So, when all these people who are not in the traditional "next-gen" market say that they will be buying a next-gen system, and that it will not be the PS3, how can you dismiss it with "Well, you aren't the target audience?" Do console sales only count if they're buyers that Sony is interested in?

  • Ok random insert-your-own-inappropriate-word-here guesses what consoles will have sold the most 2 years from now? Oh, awesome, how I've longed for this day to happen.

    Also he is dead wrong since he belives the Wii will sell the least amount.
    • Of course this is Slashdot, so we all have to bend down and kiss Nintendo's ass: "wow Nintendo makes great systems, gameplay is better than graphics, so innovative, etc"

      With that over with, out here in the real world I live in, I've heard exactly one person say anything about the Nintendo Revolution. I've heard a dozen people talking about buying a PS3 or a Xbox 360. It's possible that Nintendo will do better than the article predicts, but personally I don't think it's likely... Nintendo just doesn't hav
      • Re:And this is news? (Score:2, Interesting)

        by jizziknight (976750)
        I've heard the opposite. One person saying they're getting a 360, one person saying they *might* get a PS3 after a price drop, and lots of people (including the two above) talking about getting a Wii, some of them even non-gamers.

        But that's not the real point. The point is that you can't go only on your own circle of friends. That's a somewhat skewed population. Why do you think a lot of new products and services are tested in the midwest (Pepsi Clear comes to mind)? The midwest, namely the Ohio and India
      • On the other hand, my *parents* have asked me about the Wii. I know people who work at MS who say they "MSN blah" instead of "google blah"- and they want a Wii. My guild has 1 or 2 people wanting a PS3, but a lot of people excited about the Wii. I really know almost noone who has an XBox360 or is waiting for the PS3- its all people waiting for the Wii.
      • With that over with, out here in the real world I live in, I've heard exactly one person say anything about the Nintendo Revolution. I've heard a dozen people talking about buying a PS3 or a Xbox 360.

        We must live in different real worlds. In the one I live in, I don't know anybody who's bought a 360 yet even though it's been out for six months, all the gamers think it was a horrible mistake for Sony to price the PS3 so high, and I hate walking past Rockefeller Center because people are always stopping in t
  • interesting guess... (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Slovenian6474 (964968) on Friday June 30, 2006 @11:51AM (#15636740) Homepage
    I'm a hardcore FPS gamer. I'll take the PC over any console any day. Although, i did buy a 360, i'm most interested in the Wii. The games look interesting, the innovative controls sound fun, and for less than $250, you can't afford not to get one. With other next-gen systems being at least double to almost triple the price...i don't see why the Wii wouldn't be right up there with the 360 and PS3. The only one i see as lagging behind is the PS3 only because of the pricing. After seeing PS3's launch price, i decided i could get addicted to the new Smash Bros and actually be able to eat food for the next month.
    • FPS is the least interesting genre for me.

      Reading GamePro's coverage of E3, the thing that struck me was that almost all the games for the 360 and PS3 were boring FPSs with better graphics. The Wii was the only console that had significant variety.

      Now, it may be that the magazine was just filling space with whatever had the most impressive screenshots... but if the PS3 lineup really is mostly FPSs, Sony could find themselves in trouble, as most FPS fans seem to be PC gamers like you.

      In fact, I kinda wonder
    • I used to be like you and think I'd take my PC over everything. That was untill I picked up Half life 2 episode 1. Long story short, I've had 2 CDs, 5-6 e-mails from Valve tech support and I still can't get the damn game running. I know what I'm doing with stuff but I've had so much hassle I really just can't be bothered with Valve games ever again.

      Right now I'd take a console over a PC purely for the lack of DRM bullshit and huge hassle of fixing things when they go wrong.
      • I hate to break it to you, but the console is essentially a PC with more restrictions. It's a PC that's been so DRM'd that it can only be used to play games that are licensed for that console.

        And I can't imagine why you think a console will "just work" any more than Steam. I guarantee someday you'll bring home a console game and it will either be defective (won't play at all), or your console will reject it for some other reason. At least with a PC, it's highly likely I'll have a backup for all my savega
        • You sir are talking out your ass.

          There was a bug in the beautiful joe 2 demo. It's well documented and they even gave people free games to say sorry for it.

          You're basicly saying "Wow I'm so glad my extending stick is in my control, having one of them normal-always-the-same-sticks is so much more risky".

          How can I prevent the game engine screwing up when it worked perfectly fine without the add on (and still works fine) huh? How can I control patchs and such?

          I don't know what world you're living in, but in my
    • It depends how the average consumer looks at the product, with game consoles you go into the shop expecting the console to be in a certain price range as well as the games, if something seems too cheap you start to think "Whats wrong with this? Is it crap?

      my 2.2cents
  • by MyDixieWrecked (548719) on Friday June 30, 2006 @11:51AM (#15636746) Homepage Journal
    currently I'm not a subscriber, yet I get news updates from what, 3 years in the future where 2/3 of the systems aren't even out yet?

    seriously. I don't think analysts' predictions are news; especially when they're predicting the sales trend of products that havne't been released, let alone really shown off, yet. And with something as dynamic as a videogame console. I mean, the primary deciding factor (I thought) in the sales of a system are the games that are released. who's to say that the PS3 won't have a dozen games as spectacular and fun as Shadow of the Colossus? What's to say that the Wii isn't going to blow M$ and Sony out of the water?

    I really don't get why this was posted.

    as an asside; I'm really looking forward to the Wii. the 360 blew all my expectations out of the water (I really expected it to be slightly more entertaining than fecal matter smeared into a faux mustache on an overly inflated blowup doll). I had high hopes for the PS3, but now, I really don't know and perhaps sony has its head so far up its ass, that I wouldn't be surprised if they botch the whole system worse than atari did with the jaguar. worse than sega did with the saturn.
  • wii (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Given M. Sur (870067) on Friday June 30, 2006 @11:55AM (#15636775)
    I think Game Informer had it right in this month's magazine.

    if the more affordable Wii ends up being the second sstem of every PS3 or 360 owner, it's possible that it could make a run at the top spot in terms of installed base

    Not that every 360 or PS3 owner will also purchase a Wii, but many probably will. Not to mention the die-hard nintendo fanbase that will buy only the Wii. Also if nintendo's plan for how they intend to market the Wii works out then many non-gamers will be converted by the Wii which adds many additional sales.

    But honestly, I don't really care. I'm buying a Wii day one because it's going to kick ass. I probably won't ever buy a 360, but I may buy a PS3 in a few years when the price becomes reasonable.
    • by Lumpy (12016)
      I probably won't ever buy a 360,

      I will when the mod chip comes out so I can have 100+ games on the internal hard drive just like the Xbox does.

      that was the only reason I have an Xbox.
  • Wii Underrated ? (Score:4, Informative)

    by bateleur (814657) on Friday June 30, 2006 @11:55AM (#15636782)
    The analyst here isn't predicting how much fun the Wii will be, he's prediciting sales.

    Here's a question: How much shelf space will Wal*Mart devote to Wii games compared to the other two consoles?

    Here's another question: How much money will be spent marketing each next-gen platform?

    Sorry to say it, I think the analyst has it just about right.
    • by Anthony Boyd (242971) on Friday June 30, 2006 @12:18PM (#15636977) Homepage
      The analyst here isn't predicting how much fun the Wii will be, he's prediciting sales.

      You'd think they'd be related, or something. :(

    • If Nintendo ends up shipping more systems than Sony, then their shelf space will increase to match. The way Walmart works is to sell as much stuff as possible. If there are more potential customers for Wii games than there are for PS3 and/or Xbox360 games, then Walmart will stock more Wii games on their shelves.

      Hype is a powerful thing, but in the long term, it's not going to save Sony if the PS3 is crap. It helped create a crazy when the PS2 came out, but if they didn't have the games to back it, their suc
    • by Jeff DeMaagd (2015) on Friday June 30, 2006 @01:47PM (#15637712) Homepage Journal
      I think you both underestimate how price-concious the console market is. If the Wii is half the price of the PS3 and a lot less than a XB360, with just as many good games, then it should be easy to see that the Wii could very well have a very strong advantage.

      I'm not making a prediction though, I think it's way to early to do that when two of the systems in question aren't even available. I'm just saying that it's a pretty big wild card, all three companies are placing pretty big bets on the future of the industry, and the one that's right stands to get the most users. MS and Sony are both betting on variations on an HD path, and Nintendo is angling to grow by expanding the market to include more people not considered conventional gamers.
    • by leland242 (736905)
      You raise a very interesting question.

      Just how much space will major retailers give the Wii? I would imagine that it would somehow be related to the past success of Nintendo products in the marketplace.

      Could the Wii's potential in the market be affected by small shelf-space allocation due to the limited success of the GC?

      This makes me think I've been looking at this the wrong way. I think the Wii is going to offer innovation above and beyond the competition. In a perfect world, this would translate into
    • You ask how much retail space the Wii will get.

      The answer is in this question: what is E3, and how did the consoles do at E3?

      E3 is an expo for the people who make buying decisions for the retailers. That's why it requires an industry connection (though they aren't vetted well) to get in. Retailers have to plan Christmas in the spring, which why we have E3 in May.

      So, as a buyer for the big retailers you make your plans based on what you saw at E3. How do you think Nintendo did?
  • by preppypoof (943414) on Friday June 30, 2006 @11:56AM (#15636785)
    The forecast predicts 10.6 million consoles in homes for Xbox 360, 6.8 million for PlayStation 3, and a modest 3.5 million for Wii in 2007. In 2008, Anderson suggests 15.5 million units in homes for the 360, 13.5 million for PS3, and 6.8 million for Wii.
    so he is predicting that the PS3 and wii will each sell about as many units in their second year as in their first year. it's pretty basic knowledge that consoles, games, albums, whatever, always sell a lot of units at the relative beginning of their release before the numbers dip, often dramatically.
    • so he is predicting that the PS3 and wii will each sell about as many units in their second year as in their first year. it's pretty basic knowledge that consoles, games, albums, whatever, always sell a lot of units at the relative beginning of their release before the numbers dip, often dramatically.

      Games sell a lot when they first come off, then drastically drop off over time.

      Consoles sell to the early adopters first, then the sales totals increase over time as the price drops occur and the base of good g
    • by hibiki_r (649814) on Friday June 30, 2006 @12:17PM (#15636974)
      bzzz wrong. Console sales do not follow the same sharp sales curves that videogames, movies and cds do. Yo do get a spike at launch day, but that's about it. Take a look at the PS2 install base worldwide:

      End of 2000 - 6.4 million
      End of 2001 - 24.99 million (+19)
      End of 2002 - 49.59 million (+25)
      End of 2003 - 69.46 million (+19)
      End of 2004 - 81.39 million (+12)
      End of 2005 -101.37 million (+20)

      As you can see, sales are not all that different through the console's lifecycle. You see drops when few good games come out, and increases during price drops and major game releases. Just look at the weekly japanese sales at media create and crunch some numbers.

  • by ProppaT (557551)
    Now here's a guy who really doesn't understand the industry....
  • by ArmyOfFun (652320) on Friday June 30, 2006 @12:20PM (#15636989)
    Interesting find from the analyst according to the article:
    From the onset, the Gamecube's [gamerankings.com aggregate] scores were highest, followed by Xbox, then PS2, which hovered around 70% for the entire duration.
    In other words, gamers reward consoles which offer them the most choice in their game selection, not necessairly the highest overall quality. Not really surprising if you think about it, but it's interesting to see some numbers backing it up.

    The quantity question is shaking up to look the same, at least initially, for the next generation. The majority of next generation previews I've seen are for 360/PS3, with an absolute dearth of high profile previews for Wii.

    If the quantity of game selection were the sole criteria, I'd say the analyst is roughly right in his predictions at least for the near term. PS3 will have a huge advantage over the 360 in the number of Japanese developed games, so I expect to eventually overtake it.

    The obvious wildcards are how successful the Wii will be in expanding the market and bringing back lapsed gamers. And how long will the PS3 sell for a premium. If Nintendo can translate E3 success into actually getting devlopers to release games on the Wii, their chance for success will rise dramatically.
    • In other words, gamers reward consoles which offer them the most choice in their game selection, not necessairly the highest overall quality. Not really surprising if you think about it, but it's interesting to see some numbers backing it up.

      Or, it could be that the average rankings drop the more games you have released. Given that of the console systems, the one with the highest average ranking (Xbox 360) has the fewest games.

      Even excluding the "if you have tons of games, you must have tons of crap" effect
    • by cowscows (103644) on Friday June 30, 2006 @01:02PM (#15637328) Journal
      Agreed, although I think Nintendo is doing a few things to try and combat that. Lining up more third party devs is the big one, as you noted. They seem to be trying, I don't know if it'll work.

      But in a more fundamental sense, the whole shift towards the "casual gamer" is an attempt to find a market that is more interested in quality over quantity. People who couldn't possibly ever find the time to play even a fraction of all those PS2 games, and would rather just buy one occasionally, and be pretty sure that it'll be a worthwhile purchase.

      The other thing is that with the pricing being significantly lower than the competition, it has the potential to move into more of an "impulse buy" category. Maybe not in the sense of you're walking through BestBuy looking for a DVD and it catches your eye out of the blue sort of impulse. (Although if they set up some nice in-store kiosks with a really crazy fun game, the novelty of the controller would probably sell a few on the spot). But I'm thinking more along these lines; I'm a teenager really wanting a PS3, and as I stare at the box in the store wondering how I'm ever going to manage to find $600 bucks, I notice the Wii next to it, maybe bundled with an extra controller and a game, for half the price. Sure it's not what I really wanted, but it'll still be fun, I have a much better chance of convincing Mom to pay for it, and I won't leave empty handed.

      And there's still the 2nd console strategy. Basically saying that the Wii is different enough that it's not an either or between it and another console. You can buy an Xbox360 and get most of the same stuff that you'd get with a PS3. But even having both of those won't let you play most of the games that you can get for the Wii.

      Nintendo doesn't care if you buy another console. They only care if you buy a Wii. If you buy a PS3, Steve Ballmer might throw a chair at you (are chair-throwing jokes still funny? were they ever?), because he knows that a large percentage of purchases for Sony are a loss for MS.
    • In other words, gamers reward consoles which offer them the most choice in their game selection, not necessairly the highest overall quality. Not really surprising if you think about it, but it's interesting to see some numbers backing it up.

      Or, to further comment, it could be because the guy did a crappy analysis.

      Take a look at his DS/PSP comparison : he states the PSP is like 70%, and the DS is far lower. From gamerankings.com's own data, that seems to be because of a large number of games with very few r
  • The last console that I ever owned was a Sega Genesis and I am planning on buying a Wii.
    • The last console that I ever owned was a Sega Genesis and I am planning on buying a Wii.

      Update the numbers, guys! The Wii will sell 6,800,001.
  • hmmm (Score:2, Insightful)

    by aleksiel (678251)
    imho, ps3 will be too niche-market to compete well. $600 for the base system and $100 per game is getting quite pricey.

    it will be xbox360 vs wii. higher quality graphics, online play vs innovative games and play style. the 360 will be out earlier, but the wii will be released cheaper than the 360 could probably ever become. i'm putting the wii on top with this one. i know i'll be buying one (and not a 360/ps3).
  • by WillAffleckUW (858324) on Friday June 30, 2006 @12:30PM (#15637078) Homepage Journal
    And quite frankly, I think they're underestimating how popular the Wii will be - especially with its wide variety of games designed to appeal to not just hardcore gamers, but especially to women, girls, and occassional gamers.
  • How do I put it... the XBox 360 and PS3 were designed around the industry's conventional wisdom that hardcore gamers drive the market. The analysts created and boosted this idea with their reports about how a small minority made the majority of game purchases. (For example most games have the majority of their sales in their first month of release, which has exacerbated the importance of hype.)

    The Wii flies in the face of the industry's conventional wisdom, and if the current buzz translates to sales (not a
  • by Billly Gates (198444) on Friday June 30, 2006 @12:38PM (#15637147) Journal
    Where is he drawing his conclusions?

    Based on past performance? Based on marketing of all the companies?

    The PS1 was not expected to be sucessfull. Neither was the DS gameboy over the hyped psp as another poster pointed out.

    Personally I think the wii is going to surprise everyone and nintendo once again will rerule the console market. It will cost $225 while the PS3 will be anywhere from $600 to $800 and the games will be $70-80, the xbox360 will have about 8 or 9 games by this christmass and cost $350. Also Nintendo is doing innovative things and will attract a broader range of consumers.

    If the slashdot poll we had last month was any indication of consumer preference, I think Sony and MS are in trouble. We are more technically minded and more game savy than the average consumer so the preference %'s for the xbox and PS3 should be much higher than the general public.

    Last, for those who say the wii is weak on grahics, please check this out? [ign.com] Also take a look at the new Galaxy Mario [ign.com]? The gamecube right now has the best best graphics out of the ps2 and xbox 1. Go ask any real game developer and dont believe the hype out of sony?
  • These are US only numbers. Not worldwide. Look at the current handhelds, DS is only slightly ahead of the PSP in North America, where as in Japan, it's not even a race. (The old phat DS is almost outselling the PSP, and the DS Lites are outselling the phat DS 7:1!!)

    I'm betting simular results for the Wii at the beginning. It'll be competitive here in North America, but will eat japan up right from the get go. Globally though, the numbers will look MUCH different.

  • I'm going to buy the Wii. Not the PS2. Not the XBox 360...

    Its gameplay, man. The Wii promises "good enuf" graphics and unique gameplay.

    Its the same reason I got the DS over the PSP: The games have better gameplay (even if the graphics are far more limited). Innovative input -> innovative gameplay.
  • by Triv (181010)
    It's anecdotal, but I don't know a single person who's gonna shell out the cash for a ps3 and I don't know anybody who owns an XBox 360, but I know tons of people who're chomping at the bit for the Wii to come out. I'm not sure where those numbers came from, but they don't ring true for me.
  • Yawn... (Score:2, Insightful)

    by ciw42 (820892)
    I'm getting a little tired of analysts telling us how the next generation console war is going to play out over the next few years, especially when what they're suggesting seems to all but ignore the level of interest shown by the general public in each product.

    Whilst a good handful of people I know are very happy with their Xbox360s, and a one or two are even looking forward to getting their hands on a PS3, without exception everyone I've spoken to about the Wii is very excited about it, and has every inte
  • Roll a d20 (Score:2, Interesting)

    by Headcase88 (828620)
    I'm not sure. If I were to guess, I'd say it would be very close, say... 40% for the 360, and 35% for the Wii and 25% for the PS3 (keep in mind this means more sales in terms of $ for the PS3 than the Wii). Something like that.

    360 has a big advantage from being first; they'll have not only a fanbase but a lot of titles available by the time the other two launch, and with that momentum they'll get an even bigger fanbase and more titles. It's a vicious cycle.

    the PS3 has the strongest brand recognition, bu
  • No surprise.. (Score:2, Insightful)

    by deggy (195861)
    Leaving Nintendo aside, as they've at the fringes of TV-console gaming at the moment this battle is basicly between Microsoft and Sony and quite frankly, what do Sony expect? I mean, (speaking as a PSP owner and PS2 owner) when you bring a console to market 18 months late, have a price over double that of the competator and show the sheer bold-faced greed and lack of respect for the customer that Sony has (have you seen the price of PSP games? They're DOUBLE the price of DS and often more expensive that TV-
  • Sony has already made so many blunders before launch I don't see how they are going to sustain the PS3 sales after fanboys and hardcore AV enthusiasts have their fill. Lets go over Sony's faults:

    1. Being indignant about the price of the PS3
    2. It's freakin' huge: the box will take up the same space in stores as two or three Xbox 360's or at least 4 Wii's.
    3. No Rumble in the controller
    4. Realistic Cost if you don't want the crappy PS3, out the door, with one game, let alone an extra controller, with tax,
  • by kinglink (195330) on Friday June 30, 2006 @03:09PM (#15638448)
    So in his opinion, a 400 dollar monstrosity, and a 600 dollar screw up is going to sell much better than the ~300 dollar Wii?

    I do admit the 360 has done everything right in their launch and of course they are going to be on top for quite a while. I'd be willing to suggest they win this generation. However how is the PS3 going to get even close to that. They already admited they arn't worried about the following

    1. 600 dollar price
    2. Higher Priced games.
    3. No GTA Exclusivity
    4. Going with all blu ray games.
    5. A cheaper version that essentially isn't a game system in many ways.
    6. An unknown and untested online that promises everything the Xbox does (though likely will have more focus on label music)
    7. The same controller with unproven "movement functionality" and no rumble.
    8. A strong lineup of launch games.


    Sony is pulling a nintendo 64, they are overestimating name recognition and they will fall flat on the face.

    The Wii may not get the hard core gamers, but a lot of techno nuts will grab it just for the pure innovation. At the same time NO ONE is getting a 360 for just arcade games, however someone is more likely to buy a 250 dollar Wii (which sounds what they are aiming for) and go and buy some old nintendo games to play with for a couple dollars tops.

    Now I'm not saying the Wii will beat the Ps3, but the Ps3 will NEVER be close behind 360 at the rate they are going. The gaming community has embraced the 360 in North America (where we are talking about), the world's gaming community is extremely skeptical of the PS3, and interested in the Wii. Factor in a Zelda launch title, Halo 3, 2nd gen 360 games, and eyes start to turn.

    That's not to say in 2007/2008 that the PS3 will not get great games, or the Wii will get tons of great games. No one knows but the facts are against the PS3 rocketting away. The 360 is "simple" to program for (compared to the PS3), the Wii has a unique controller which both helps and hinders it. And looking at fall 2007, those second generation 360 games are coming fast, compared to launch PS3 games they will blow them away.

    Microsoft did almost everything right with the 360 overall, the launch was weak and weak BC, but the games are slowly coming in. On the other side, nintendo is doing everything right in creating a new "interactive" gamer level, and Sony is just about doing everything wrong. One or two issues wouldn't be a problem but Sony really has a long way to become top dog again.

    And this is coming from a guy who didn't own a Xbox, I own a 360 now though and I couldn't be happier, it's a great system, I'll be buying a Wii, but the Ps3 still isn't worth the 600 bucks. And remember a PS3 will be highly inflated numbers as well because people will buy it just for the blu ray which is cheaper than buying a Blu-ray player solo.
  • Strategy Schmategy (Score:4, Insightful)

    by podperson (592944) on Friday June 30, 2006 @03:14PM (#15638491) Homepage
    PS3 isn't launched. Based on current sales the leading console in 2009 will be the PS2 (which is outselling XBox 360). This may sound like a flip joke, but it's actually a fairly likely scenario. Remember the PSOne? It was only just discontinued.

    Let's see, what next-gen platform is PS2 (and PSX) compatible?

    Sony is betting the farm on a happy convergence of Blu-ray, compelling PS3 titles, and HDTV critical mass.

    Microsoft is betting (but not the farm) on getting in first. Microsoft intends to own your digital hub, and they're prepared to lose a whole pile of money getting there. We've seen them behave similarly with Access (which was used to kill Paradox, et al), Video for Windows / Windows Media Player, Internet Explorer, and so on. There's a huge market at stake, and it's worth billions to kill its current owner. The fact that this is technically illegal is a minor annoyance.

    Indeed by making the XBox 360 far more technically distinct from a Windows PC than the XBox (which basically was a PC) Microsoft may be trying to avoid potential antitrust action (it could be argued that XBox was an attempt to leverage its desktop monopoly power, whereas XBox 360 is merely an attempt to buy into a new market by using money made with its desktop monopoly). It seems highly unlikely they did it to make developers happy. (Yay, another bizarro platform with a new API to develop for!)

    So far, getting in first hasn't worked very well for Atari, Colecovision, Nintendo, and Sega, so good luck to Microsoft there. It's not clear to what extent the PS2's success was driven by it's serving as a (for the time) inexpensive, high quality DVD-player (we've bought and stopped using three or four DVD players since we bought our PS2, and the PS2 still works -- even if it does ask you to override parental controls for almost every DVD; all but one of the other DVD players has eaten it).

    In a sense, the success or failure of the Wii is about as relevant to the Sony/Microsoft battle for control of your "digital lifestyle" as the success or failure of the DS (or PSP), which is to say -- not totally irrelevant, but not central. No sane person is going to store the only copy of their family photographs on a PSP. The reason the Wii is so much more exciting (to gamers) than its competitors is that Nintendo is all about games. Wii will never by our digital hub, and we don't care.

    Frankly, I wish someone would figure out that a digital hub ought, basically, to be an application-agnostic, really big, reliable mass storage device, and all the other crap should be peripheral.
  • Surprised? (Score:5, Informative)

    by whogben (919335) on Friday June 30, 2006 @04:40PM (#15639288)
    Jason Anderson, Xbox Canada 's Group Marketing Manager, predicts success for the xbox. 0.0 JASON ANDERSON IS WITH XBOX MARKETING CANADA. !?!?!?!

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