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AI

Are We in an AI Overhang? (lesswrong.com)

Andy Jones, a London-based machine learning researcher, writes: An overhang is when you have had the ability to build transformative AI for quite some time, but you haven't because no-one's realised it's possible. Then someone does and surprise! It's a lot more capable than everyone expected. I am worried we're in an overhang right now. I think we right now have the ability to build an orders-of-magnitude more powerful system than we already have, and I think GPT-3 is the trigger for 100x-larger projects at Google and Facebook and the like, with timelines measured in months.

GPT-3 is the first AI system that has obvious, immediate, transformative economic value. While much hay has been made about how much more expensive it is than a typical AI research project, in the wider context of megacorp investment it is insignificant. GPT-3 has been estimated to cost $5m in compute to train, and -- looking at the author list and OpenAI's overall size - maybe another $10m in labour, on the outside. Google, Amazon and Microsoft all each spend ~$20bn/year on R&D and another ~$20bn each on capital expenditure. Very roughly it totals to ~$100bn/year. So dropping $1bn or more on scaling GPT up by another factor of 100x is entirely plausible right now. All that's necessary is that tech executives stop thinking of NLP as cutesy blue-sky research and start thinking in terms of quarters-till-profitability.

Medicine

Fastest US Supercomputer Enlisted in Fight Against Coronavirus (bloomberg.com) 13

The fastest supercomputer in the U.S. is being put to work in the search for a vaccine to prevent the coronavirus and treat those infected by it. From a report: The Summit, housed in the U.S. Energy Department's Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee, is capable of 200,000 trillion calculations per second. It is being used to analyze health data as part of the Covid-19 Insights Partnership announced Tuesday by the agency as well as the departments of Veterans affairs and Health and Human Services. "Summit's unmatched capacity to analyze massive integrated datasets and divine insights will help researchers identify and advance potential treatments and enhance outcomes for Covid-19 patients with unprecedented speed," the agencies said in a statement. The Energy Department said earlier this year that its computers were being used to help the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Heath Organization conduct modeling on the virus.
Earth

Scientists Pull Living Microbes, Possibly 100 Million Years Old, From Beneath the Sea (sciencemag.org) 11

sciencehabit writes: Microbes buried beneath the sea floor for more than 100 million years are still alive, a new study reveals. When brought back to the lab and fed, they started to multiply. The microbes are oxygen-loving species that somehow exist on what little of the gas diffuses from the ocean surface deep into the seabed. The discovery raises the "insane" possibility, as one of the scientists put it, that the microbes have been sitting in the sediment dormant, or at least slowly growing without dividing, for eons. The new work demonstrates "microbial life is very persistent, and often finds a way to survive," says Virginia Edgcomb, a microbial ecologist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution who was not involved in the work.

What's more, by showing that life can survive in places biologists once thought uninhabitable, the research speaks to the possibility of life elsewhere in the Solar System, or elsewhere in the universe. "If the surface of a particular planet does not look promising for life, it may be holding out in the subsurface," says Andreas Teske, a microbiologist at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, who was also not involved with the new study. Researchers have known that life exists "under the floorboards" of the ocean for more than 15 years. But geomicrobiologist Yuki Morono of the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology wanted to know the limits of such life. Microbes are known to live in very hot or toxic environments, but can they live where there's little food to eat? To find out, Morono and his colleagues mounted a drilling expedition in the South Pacific Gyre, a site of intersecting ocean currents east of Australia that is considered the deadest part of the world's oceans, almost completely lacking the nutrients needed for survival. When they extracted cores of clay and other sediments from as deep as 5700 meters below sea level, they confirmed the samples did indeed contain some oxygen, a sign that there was very little organic material for bacteria to eat.

Facebook

Facebook Seeks Insights Into Startups by Investing in VC Funds (theinformation.com) 4

Facebook in recent weeks has approached a handful of small venture capital firms to discuss becoming an investor in their funds, The Information reported Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter. The VC strategy, which also includes direct investments in startups, aims to give the social network early, valuable insight into a wider swath of companies. From a report: To run the new investing initiative, Facebook recently appointed Sunita Parasuraman, a nine-year veteran of the company who previously ran the treasury for its embattled Libra cryptocurrency project. Former Kleiner Perkins general partner Eric Feng, now a Facebook employee, is helping approach funds, sources say. The moves come as Facebook fends off antitrust scrutiny of its acquisitions and attempts to find new ways to counter growing competitive threats like TikTok. While Microsoft, Intel and others for years have taken stakes in startups through VC subsidiaries, Facebook has shied away from adopting a formal investing program until recently. Instead, it has made one-off investments, such as its recent $5.7 billion investment in Indian tech conglomerate Jio Platforms. Google, in contrast, has multiple, long-running venture arms, including GV, which has backed big-name companies like Slack and Uber.
Google

Google Plans To Build a New Undersea Network Cable Connecting the US, UK and Spain (bbc.com) 14

New submitter rewindustry writes: Google has announced plans to build a new undersea network cable connecting the US, UK and Spain. The tech giant says it is incorporating new technology into the cable, which it claims is a significant upgrade to older existing lines. The project is expected to be completed by 2022. Underwater data cables are vital to global communications infrastructure, carrying some 98% of the world's data, according to Google's estimate. The cables are usually built by communications firms -- typically a group of them pooling resources - which then charge other companies to use them. The latest cable, named "Grace Hopper" after an American computer scientist and naval rear admiral, will hit the UK at Bude, in Cornwall. It is Google's fourth privately owned undersea cable. But Google needs "an ever-increasing amount of transatlantic bandwidth," according to John Delaney from telecoms analyst IDC. "Building its own cables helps them choose cable routes that are most optimal," and near data centres, he said. "It also minimises operational expenditure by reducing the need to pay telcos and other third-party cable owners for the use of their infrastructure."
Businesses

Target and Walmart May Have Just Killed Black Friday as We Know It (inputmag.com) 58

An anonymous reader shares a report: Following Walmart's decision last week to shutter its doors on Thanksgiving Day over COVID-19 concerns, fellow big-box behemoth, Target, has announced that it will also be skipping this year's orgiastic capitalist pre-game for the good of consumers and workers. Well, that's the official position at least. "Historically, deal hunting and holiday shopping can mean crowded events, and this isn't a year for crowds," Target execs said in an official statement. It marks the first time since 2011 that the megastore will not be open on Thanksgiving -- a trend long criticized by labor activists for, you know, forcing underpaid retail workers to go into work and stare down deal-hungry shoppers instead of spending time with their own families.

It's important to note that these statements from Walmart, Target, and what many predict will be an increasing number of other retailers, are only announcing a moratorium on Thanksgiving pre-Black Friday sales events, and not a cancellation of actual Black Friday plans, which appear to still be going on as planned. In-store Thanksgiving sales first gained in popularity years back when online sales began to eat away at physical stores' holiday season profit margins. Turkey Day events consistently ranked outside the 10 busiest days of the year for most businesses while simultaneously lowering profits from Black Friday itself. So, if you can believe it, it appears this wave of decisions isn't exactly coming from the good of shareholders' hearts.

China

All Dogs in Shenzhen, China Will Get Microchipped By 2020 (techcrunch.com) 57

The world's hardware haven is taking a digital leap for pets. From a report: In May, China's southern city Shenzhen announced that all dogs must be implanted with a chip, joining the rank of the U.K., Japan, Australia and a growing number of countries to make microchips mandatory for dogs. This week, city regulators began to set up injection stations across their partnering pet clinics, according to social media posts from the Shenzhen Urban Management Bureau. The chip, which is said to last for at least 15 years and comes in the size of a grain of rice, is implanted under the skin of a dog's neck. Each chip, when scanned by authorized personnel, reveals a unique 15-digit number matching the dog's name and breed, as well as its owner's identity and contact information -- which will help reduce strays.
News

CES Comes To Its Senses and Will Go All-Digital For 2021 (inputmag.com) 15

For the first time in more than 50 years, the CES technology tradeshow will be a digital-only event in January 2021. The event is the first big event of the year for the Las Vegas events calendar, and a huge cash cow for the Nevada city's economy. From a report: The Consumer Technology Association (CTA), which runs the event, today announced CES 2021 which was scheduled for January 6â"9, 202, will be completely online. "Amid the pandemic and growing global health concerns about the spread of COVID-19, it's just not possible to safely convene tens of thousands of people in Las Vegas in early January 2021 to meet and do business in person," said Gary Shapiro, CTA president and CEO. Back in June, the CTA said CES would go ahead in 2021, albeit with some updated protocols. That's the approach IFA in Berlin has gone for, and largely been lambasted over. Some speculate that CES 2020 may have inadvertently aided the early spread of COVID-19 in the U.S. after a number of attendees took to social media to report they got seriously ill after the event.
Businesses

Their Businesses Went Virtual. Then Apple Wanted a Cut. (nytimes.com) 64

After Airbnb and ClassPass began selling virtual classes because of the pandemic, Apple tried to collect its commission on the sales. From a report: ClassPass built its business on helping people book exercise classes at local gyms. So when the pandemic forced gyms across the United States to close, the company shifted to virtual classes. Then ClassPass received a concerning message from Apple. Because the classes it sold on its iPhone app were now virtual, Apple said it was entitled to 30 percent of the sales, up from no fee previously, according to a person close to ClassPass who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of upsetting Apple. The iPhone maker said it was merely enforcing a decade-old rule. Airbnb experienced similar demands from Apple after it began an "online experiences" business that offered virtual cooking classes, meditation sessions and drag-queen shows, augmenting the in-person experiences it started selling in 2016, according to two people familiar with the issues.

Both Airbnb and ClassPass have discussed Apple's demands with House lawmakers' offices that are investigating how Apple wields its control over its App Store as part of a yearlong antitrust inquiry into the biggest tech companies, according to three people who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations. Those lawmakers are set to grill Tim Cook, Apple's chief executive, and the chief executives of Amazon, Facebook and Google in a high-profile hearing on Wednesday. Apple's disputes with the smaller companies point to the control the world's largest tech companies have had over the shift to online life brought on by the pandemic. While much of the rest of the economy is struggling, the pandemic has further entrenched their businesses.

Twitter

Twitter Temporarily Limits Donald Trump Jr.'s Account (cnn.com) 189

Twitter has limited some functionality on Donald Trump Jr.'s account after he tweeted a video that ran afoul of the company's policies on Covid-19 misinformation, a Twitter spokesperson confirmed to CNN Business on Tuesday. Some of the account's functionality will be limited for 12 hours, the spokesperson said. Twitter has asked the President's son to delete the tweet with the video.
Google

Google's Top Search Result? It's Google (themarkup.org) 38

In Google's early years, users would type in a query and get back a page of 10 "blue links" that led to different websites. "We want to get you out of Google and to the right place as fast as possible," co-founder Larry Page said in 2004. Today, Google often considers that "right place" to be Google, an investigation by The Markup has found. From the report: We examined more than 15,000 recent popular queries and found that Google devoted 41 percent of the first page of search results on mobile devices to its own properties and what it calls "direct answers," which are populated with information copied from other sources, sometimes without their knowledge or consent. When we examined the top 15 percent of the page, the equivalent of the first screen on an iPhone X, that figure jumped to 63 percent. For one in five searches in our sample, links to external websites did not appear on the first screen at all. A trending search in our data for "myocardial infarction" shows how Google has piled up its products at the top. It returned:
Google's dictionary definition.
A "people also ask" box that expanded to answer related questions without leaving the search results page.
A "knowledge panel," which is an abridged encyclopedia entry with various links.
And a "related conditions" carousel leading to various new Google searches for other diseases.
All of these appeared before search results by WebMD, Harvard University, and Medscape. In fact, a user would have to scroll nearly halfway down the page -- about 42 percent -- before reaching the first "organic" result in that search.

Twitter

Trump Blasts 'Trending' Section On Twitter: 'Really Ridiculous, Illegal, and, of Course, Very Unfair!' (thehill.com) 245

An anonymous reader quotes a report from The Hill: President Trump blasted Twitter's "trending" section in a Monday tweet, calling it "really ridiculous, illegal, and, of course, very unfair!" "So disgusting to watch Twitter's so-called 'Trending', where sooo many trends are about me, and never a good one," Trump posted. "They look for anything they can find, make it as bad as possible, and blow it up, trying to make it trend," he added.

The president's relationship with Twitter, where he often turns to speak directly to supporters, has grown more contentious in recent months. The social media platform put warnings and fact checks on two of Trump's posts in May about mail-in voting, saying the tweets contained "potentially misleading information." Twitter also added an advisory to one of Trump's June tweets, which threatened demonstrators who want to create an "autonomous zone" in Washington, D.C. The advisory said the tweet broke Twitter's rules about abusive behavior and threatening violence. The president sought to fight back in May, issuing an executive order intended to strip social media platforms of certain legal protections, though experts say the order is largely toothless and stands on shaky legal ground.

Earth

From Rocks To Icebergs, the Natural World Tends To Break Into Cubes 31

sciencehabit shares a report from Science Magazine: Researchers have found that when everything from icebergs to rocks breaks apart, their pieces tend to resemble cubes. The finding suggests a universal rule of fragmentation at scales ranging from the microscopic to the planetary. The scientists started their study "fragmenting" an abstract cube in a computer simulation by slicing it with 50 two-dimensional planes inserted at random angles. The planes cut the cube into 600,000 fragments, which were, on average, cubic themselves -- meaning that, on average, the fragments had six sides that were quadrangles, although any individual fragment need not be a cube. The result led the researchers to suspect that cubes might be a common feature of fragmentation.

The researchers tried to confirm this hunch using real-world measurements. They headed to an outcrop of the mineral dolomite on the mountain Harmashatarhegy in Budapest, Hungary, and counted the number of vertices in cracks in the stone face. Most of these cracks formed squarish shapes, which is one of the faces of a cube, regardless of if they had been weathered naturally or had been created by humans dynamiting the mountain. Finally, the team created more-powerful supercomputer simulations modeling the breakup of 3D materials under idealized conditions -- like a rock being pulled equally in all directions. Such cases formed polyhedral pieces that were, in an average sense, cubes.
The researchers reported their findings in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Mars

Rock From Mars Heads Home After 600,000 Year Odyssey Across Space (theguardian.com) 34

A tiny piece of Martian basalt the size of a 10p coin will be launched on board a U.S. robot probe on Thursday and propelled towards the red planet on a seven-month journey to its home world. The Guardian reports: This extraordinary odyssey, the interplanetary equivalent of sending coals to Newcastle, will form a key part of Nasa's forthcoming Mars 2020 expedition. Space engineers say the rock -- which has been donated by the Natural History Museum in London -- will be used to calibrate detectors on board the robot rover Perseverance after it lands and begins its search for signs of past life on the planet. "When you turn on instruments and begin to tune them up before using them for research, you calibrate them on materials that are going to be like the unknown substances you are about to study. So what better for studying rocks on Mars than a lump that originated there?" said Professor Caroline Smith, the Natural History Museum's principal curator of meteorites.

Scientists were confident that the rock they were returning to Mars originated on the planet, added Smith, who is also a member of the Mars 2020 science team. "Tiny bubbles of gas trapped inside that meteorite have exactly the same composition as the atmosphere of Mars, so we know our rock came from there." It is thought that the Martian meteorite was created when an asteroid or comet plunged into the planet about 600,000 to 700,000 years ago, spraying debris into space. One of those pieces of rubble swept across the solar system and eventually crashed on to Earth. That meteorite -- now known as SAU 008 -- was discovered in Oman in 1999 and has been in the care of the Natural History Museum since then.

Among the instruments fitted to the Perseverance rover is a high-precision laser called Sherloc, which will be used to decipher the chemical composition of rocks and determine if they might contain organic materials that indicate life once existed -- or still exists -- on Mars. The inclusion of a piece of SAU 008 is intended to ensure this is done with maximum accuracy. Once Perseverance has selected the most promising rocks it can find, it will dump them in caches on the Martian surface. These will then be retrieved by subsequent robot missions and blasted into space towards Earth for analysis.

Power

What the Heroin Industry Can Teach Us About Solar Power (bbc.com) 107

ljw1004 writes: Helmand Province in Afghanistan produces two thirds of the world's opium. Its opium production has more than doubled in the past eight years, due mostly to solar power. "Solar is by far the most significant technological change" in the region for decades, says Dr. Mansfield, author of the report (PDF). The first solar panels were introduced there in 2013. More recently, solar panel installations have doubled every year, and now stand at 67,000. In Lashkargah, the capital of Helmand Province, solar panels are stacked in the market in great piles three stories high. For an up-front cost of $5,000, farmers can buy panels and a pump to irrigate their fields, and then there are virtually no running costs. "All this water is making the desert bloom," says Richard Brittan, a former British soldier whose company, Alcis, specializes in satellite analysis of what he calls "complex environments."

$5,000 is a lot of money -- the average dowry is $7,000 -- but the panels pay for themselves within two years. Farmers used to rely on diesel, which was more costly, unreliable and adulterated, which led to frequent machinery breakdowns. This "is perhaps the purest example of capitalism on the planet. There are no subsidies here. Nobody is thinking about climate change -- or any other ethical consideration, for that matter. This is about small-scale entrepreneurs trying to make a profit. It is the story of how Afghan opium growers have switched to solar power, and significantly increased the world supply of heroin. What does this tell us about solar power? That is simple. The story of the revolution in Afghan heroin production shows us just how transformative solar power can be. Don't imagine this is some kind of benign 'green' technology. "Solar is getting so cheap that it is capable of changing the way we do things in fundamental ways and with consequences that can affect the entire world," reports the BBC. (Those consequences: far more opium in the world; water table dropping by 3m a year; and a major crisis brewing in 10-15 years when the water runs out, the land returns to desert, and 1.5 million people are forced to migrate.)

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