Vintage Diseases Making a Comeback

An anonymous reader writes "MSNBC has a piece on a recent resurgence in some old-timey diseases. Mumps, Whooping Cough, and Rickets are making a comeback, back in style like it's 1955." From the article: "Public-health officials certainly weren't expecting to get 'bitten' by mumps this year. Although the virus has been circulating in British kids since 2000, it hadn't caused much trouble in the United States since an outbreak in Kansas 18 years ago. The Midwest is the epicenter again, but the victims are primarily college students, not children. Once a childhood disease, the virus has now taken hold in university towns. That's partly because crowded dorms and cafeterias are breeding grounds for germs that are spread by sneezing and coughing."

Innoculations?

[SeaFox]

Isn't MMR (measles-mumps-rubella) a standard set of vacines everyone gets before they go into school? How long are those supposed to be effective?

In a side note: the girl sitting next to me right now (at work) was gone with the mumps a couple weeks ago.

Wait, whatever happened to MMR?

[TexasDex]

Doesn't the UK vaccinate kids for this sort of thing? The US has shown the power of childhood vaccination programs, and only a few whackos object to it because of unfounded theories that it causes Autism/Aspergers.

Re:Innoculations?

[NoTheory]

It's not clear. NPR had a story discussing this last week. The outbreak is wide enough that people are beginning to wonder if there's a hole in the efficacy of the MMR vaccines. Normally the vaccine is inneffective in 10% of the population, but the way it's spreading makes it seem like there's a wider problem of some sort.

I also wonder if it could have been that there were bad batches of vaccine or something. Then again, i don't know what the demographic background of the people effected is. If it's people from all over the country (a possibility with college students) then the cause will be different if it's just people from a cluster of states in the mid-west.

Re:Innoculations?

[PhysicsPhil]

It's not clear. NPR had a story discussing this last week. The outbreak is wide enough that people are beginning to wonder if there's a hole in the efficacy of the MMR vaccines. Normally the vaccine is inneffective in 10% of the population, but the way it's spreading makes it seem like there's a wider problem of some sort.

I also wonder if it could have been that there were bad batches of vaccine or something. Then again, i don't know what the demographic background of the people effected is. If it's people from all over the country (a possibility with college students) then the cause will be different if it's just people from a cluster of states in the mid-west.

The article and other news outlets are blaming it on two major factors. The mumps-measles-rubella vaccine shifted from a one-dose variety to a two-dose in the late 1980s. Many people didn't get the second dose, leading to a lowered immunity. That same generation are now going to school and meeting other susceptible people. Instant outbreak.

Also there was a medical study that indicated some links between the vaccin and autism some time ago. The claim was largely retracted, but it was scary enough that some families didn't have their children vaccinated.

What does somewhat surprise me is the university students getting this disease. Don't the universities require proof of up-to-date innoculations for incoming students?

Re:Innoculations?

[bcmm]

There is also the problem of people avoiding the vaccine because of the autism scare. I've heard teenagers refusing school MMR vaccinations because of it, because no one has explained to them that they are too old to "catch autism" from the jab.

Re:Border control

[Dr. Eggman]

So they are infected with mumps and they cross right over the boarder, right over Texas, right over the south and settle in Iowa? That's the stupidest thing I've ever heard! Unless your saying they came in illegally from Canada, in which case that's the stupidest thing I've ever heard.

a Game Theory view of Innoculations

[Hextor_Freebish]

These resurgences stem from the growing proportion of un-inocculated people in the U.S. When the proportion of people who are invulnerable to infection and transmission goes below a critical threshold, these diseases can spread through the population. The proportion of people who are not innoculated is growing because a calculated cost-benefits analysis reveals that it is wise to avoid some vaccines. There are some diseases that are now so rare in the U.S. that the expected health impact from the vaccine outweighs the risk of being unvaccinated in a by-and-large vaccinated society. In game theory terms, we have a game with two coalitions, Vaccinating and Non-vaccinating, and a couple hundred million players. All players will not join the Vaccinating coalition, because when the proportion of players is significantly above the critical virulence threshold, parents see an advantage to be gained in abandoning the Vaccinating coalition strategy and safeguarding the health of their children to some non-trivial degree. Given that the players in the game are going to continue to be free to choose whether to be vaccinators of their kids or not, not all people will make that choice. And not just because of some primitive superstition or political inclination, either. It's simple opportunism. The only thing that will shift the equilibrium of populations of vaccinators to non-vaccinators are environmental factors that affect each players' benefits analysis, such as: Fear - hysterical news coverage about the mumps and such Conformity Pressures - public shame upon those parents who break with the Vaccination Coalition of the Willing Misinformation - hysterical news coverage that insists that vaccinations don't have any negative health consequences Legislation - rolling back of laws that allow parents to not vaccinate, such as the one in Texas Such actions can be taken, but beg the question of whether they should be taken. Unless we are going to actually eradicate a disease, the Nash Equilibrium that results in the greatest good for society is the equilibrium set by the disease's virulence, A.K.A. only enough people get vaccinated for it to be an advantageous strategy to the rest to not get vaccinated.

Don't forget...

[Max Threshold]

Bubonic plague [latimes.com], now available in California!

Whooping Cough Sucks

[TedTschopp]

I got Whooping cough last year for about 5 months. Man did that suck. You can't sleep well at all. You wake up all the time not being able to breath. The bigger problem is that my Dr. didn't believe me and thought I had a bunch of other problems until the CDC sent out a letter. Anyway, the basic problem, I think, is that the shots I got back in the early 70's last only 30 years. So guess what. It's 30 (well 29) years later, and I got it, almost 29 years to the day that I got the shot.

   

Re:Holy hell..

[quarkscat]

The co-relation of 75% overlap between areas of increased (and formerly controlled)
  infectious diseases and that of increased population density of illegal aliens is not
casual.

There was a good reason for medical screening and innoculations that was such a
large part of the legal immigration process at such historical sites as Ellis Island.
Based upon monitoring of immigration news aggregators such as "www.cis.org",
every contiguous TX, NM, AZ, and CA county to the USA's southern border, as well
as every internal focal point of illegal immigration, has seen dramatic increases in
HIV/AIDS and drug resistant STDs, TB, hepatitus, and even malaria.

Border states are now (or in the process of) suing the Federal government for
additional Medicare/Medicaid funding due to the fiscal stress on hospitals and
urgent care medical clinics that are legally forced (and morally obligated) to
provide free health care to the indigent, especially illegal aliens. It is only a
small percentage of illegal aliens who, without false papers, are forced to work
as "off-the-books" day laborers. Most illegal aliens do have documentation -
through ID theft or ID fraud that includes SSNs, health certificates, driver IDs,
and innoculation records. The service industry, especially restaurants, meat
packing plants, K-12 schools and universities, all hire low wage labor whose
documentation will not bear close scrutiny.

If you support the USA May Day demonstrations, you can blame the next
disease you catch on your own political inclinations.

KISS

[Opportunist]

Then why the absense of veneral diseases?

More likely the reason is that unis cramp as many people into 4x4 yards room as they can without having troubles with PETA 'cause they have less room than laying hens.

Re:Holy hell..

[natrius]

If you support the USA May Day demonstrations, you can blame the next disease you catch on your own political inclinations.

Oh come on. That's bullshit. There's a difference between supporting illegal immigration and supporting changes in immigration laws to make it easier for foreigners to work here legally. If they were here legally, they wouldn't have to avoid getting medical treatment, such as vaccinations, due to a fear of getting deported.

This is veering a bit off topic, but it's common knowledge that immigrants come here illegally because there is a demand for their labor. Why not allow them to come here legally, and in return, get the tax revenue we need to support their presence?

Re:Innoculations?

[pyat]

The BBC programme In Our Time recently did a show on immunisation:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/history/inourtime/inou rtime_20060420.shtml [bbc.co.uk]
The series is billed as "history of ideas" and is generally of very high quality (presenter Melvyn Bragg with a panel of 3 academics working in the area of discussion). This show is a good example.

It's particularly interesting to see that popular opposition to immunisation is not in any way a modern phenomenon.

Re:Whooping Cough Sucks

[r00t]

Strategy:

1. Be extremely careful for two years after birth. This is when whooping cough is really dangerous. No day care!

2. Don't worry about the disease for the next 15 to 20 years.

3. If you haven't caught the disease by the time you are a young adult, kiss a sick person.

4. Be immune for longer than the vaccine would give you. Getting sick at age 20 may suck, but it beats getting sick at age 50.

5. Be paranoid again as you get to be 100 years old.

Re:fear mongering

[r00t]

I guess you didn't notice that immune system problems are indeed common. Lots of everyday problems, both major and minor, are related to the immune system. Example: eating sesame seeds may make your throat get constricted. That's an immune system problem. Have any joint pain? How about pollen that makes your eyes itch?

If you think the benefit always exceeds the risk, one of these is true:

• You didn't read what I wrote.
• You didn't understand what I wrote.
• You play at game theory, wanting yourself to benefit by maximizing the number of other people (not you) who vaccinate. (it's benefit to you if others bear the risk)

No two people have the same risk. My risk may be higher or lower than yours. The government is not about to issue personalized risk assessments.

Government isn't an all-knowing benevolent servant. I suggest you consider why drug companies hire lobbyists. The "campaign contributions" happen for a reason, and they get results. (no different from telecom, defence contractors, the RIAA and MPAA, etc.)

Re:Whooping Cough Sucks

[jbengt]

My daughter got whooping cough when she was about 2. She was sick for a while and had a miserable cough for a few months. We were pretty concerned, but after the first few days she was active and alert didn't really seem that sick - except for the cough.

Her oldest brother had gotten the standard DPT (Diptheria/Pertussis/Tetanus) shot, which scared the crap out of us because it made him sick for a week and he had a 106F fever for 2 days. So my wife refused to let my other kids get the Pertussis (whoopping cough) part of the vaccine and they only got a DT shot.

Funny thing, my middle kid never got the shot or the disease symptoms, despite living in close quarters with the disease (2 parents & 3 kids, 1 bathroom & 2 bedrooms).

So I'm wondering whether the natural disease will give better immunity in the future than the vaccine did for the author of the parent comment.

Yeah. Some people need worms!

[r00t]

In what must have been an enjoyable study... :-)

patients with an auto-immune-related intestinal problem were given worm eggs to drink. The results were dramatically positive. Gut worms are good for you. :-)

If we ever eliminate disease, we'll all need to take immune suppression drugs.

Re:Proof of Immunizations

[rmckeethen]

It was trivial to get an immunization waiver at my state college in California. I wouldn't be surprised if it was equally easy in other colleges across the country. As I recall, all I needed to do was say, "I have religious objections to immunizations." After that, the health center staff handed me a form, I signed it and the college never bothered me again about the issue. I was fairly certain that I'd had the proper immunizations as a child, but I just didn't want to spend hours and hours hunting down the paperwork to prove it. A couple of months later, just to be on the safe side, I took advantage of a free immunization offer at the student health center and recieved the MMR injection. I can easily imagine that other students took the same out I did, but had never had their immunizations in the first place.

Few hundred for very large values of hundred

[benhocking]

Two generations ago Polio paralyzed at least 20,000 people per year, and now we are worried about a few hundrend with autism allegedly caused by the vaccine?

Sure, if by a few hundred you mean 163,773 [fightingautism.org] (as of 2003). Or, in annual terms, 26,067 new cases in 2003 alone. Sure, we're talking about allegedly caused by the vaccine, but I think you should at least understand why people can be legitimately worried about this! Personally, I think it's unlikely that the vaccines are related to this explosion in autism, but still, if there's even a chance it should not be dismissed lightly. (I'm not suggesting the government has dismissed it - both the CDC and FDA have performed studies and found no connection.) The timing between when vaccines are administerd and the typical onset of autism makes the vaccines a convenient target. However, if thimerosal was the problem, we should soon see autism rates decreasing, in which case the government should expect to see a large number of related lawsuits. If, on the other hand autism rates continue to rise (as I suspect they will) we should look to other causes - such as mercury poisoning in our waters - for the culprit. Actually, we should be looking everywhere we can for the culprit.

Comforting idea

[benhocking]

It's a comforting idea that the increase in autism is purely due to more liberal diagnoses. I'm certain that it explains part of it. Well, that, and increased awareness. On the other hand, if you look at a curve [fightingautism.org] that describes that increase, it's really hard to accept that this is all due to a more liberal diagnoses or increased awareness. I know several kids with autism (~30 or so). Only two of them might have escaped some kind of diagnosis twenty years ago. Most of the rest of them fall into the category of barely verbal. For these kids, at least, this is not just a liberal diagnoses. (For the two that might have escaped diagnoses, I nevertheless agree with their diagnoses as being autistic. They just have a milder version. Of course, IANAP.)

Not quite

[gr8_phk]

"The link between vaccines and autism had to do with a preservative that included mercury in it. This has been replaced with a non-mercury preservative, and I believe most of those batches have since been used or replaced."

That was one concern for many vaccines. Another theory had to do with the combination of vaccines (Mumps in particular) allowing other things to get through the gut and the blood-brain barrier. Some places used a separate Mumps and MR instead of the tripple MMR.

What's disturbing to me is the attitude of the agencies in charge of this stuff. I heard about these concerns from a few people and decided to look into it. On the US side, there is no mention of any issues. The brits at least listen to the concerns and claim to be looking in to it, or recommending some research. When my kid got her first DTaP dose, they gave us some an info packet on the vaccines. They really hype the stuff - one of the vaccines is promoted as the first "anti-cancer" drug, because one of the diseases it protects against on some occasions caused cancer. Then there's the whole issue where DTP vaccine was replaced with DTaP - a newer safer version - not that they ever indicated a problem with the old one.

The only conclusion I reached is that you can't trust anything the FDA or NIH have to say on these "issues". They are clearly pro-vaccination to the point of insanity.

BTW, one of the side effects we were supposed to look for with DTaP was "high fever greater than 105" which occures in 1/16000 cases. Holy crap! 105 can do serious damage to an adult. One is 16000 isn't that much, but how many will get a 104, or even 103 fever from it? It looks like they just used a higher temp to reduce the occurence rate to something more reasonable. And what's this chickenpox vaccine? Kids are supposed to get chickenpox aren't they? They make it sound like your kid will die if they don't get vaccinated. In another 50 years the public will actually believe that crap.

My kid survived her first DTaP just fine, and will continue to get injections containing foreign DNA/RNA as prescribed. There are some documented down sides to actually getting the diseases. There is probably some truth to the claims against the vaccines too, but since the government is in denial it's hard to make a valid comparison of the risks. Most the other sources on the net claim just the opposite - OMFG your kid will die or be a vegetable if they get vaccinated. Their attitude is no better than the gov.