HD-DVD's Temporary Edge

kukyfrope writes to mention a GameDailyBiz article speculating on the edge HD-DVD will have on Blu-ray in the near future. From the article: "Although Toshiba may take round one, in the long run 'complicating factors may shift the balance.' ABI predicts that by the end of 2006, only about 30 percent of the global hi-def movie player market will be controlled by Blu-ray, but that could quickly change as Sony launches its PlayStation 3 (which has a Blu-ray drive) worldwide this November. '...its large expected sales figures could change the market dominance picture dramatically,' notes ABI."

Typo?

[c0l0]

Isn't the competing standard for next-gen optical storage media named "Blu-Ray", and not "Blue-Ray"?

yours is an appropriate nick

[muyuubyou]

This time around one of them is not backwards compatible (requiring an extra lens that would make players a lot more expensive).

On the other hand, that same one offers a more advanced technology... although probably too soon and too expensive.

We have quite an unpredictable match in front of us, with many variables... provider partnership, manufacturer partnership, success/failure of the PS3, user need for HD, HD-TV penetration...

It's not farfetched to think HD-DVD could be dominant for some time, then Blu-Ray later... or not, if it was perceived as a loser and went belly up.

Re:PS3 is irrelevent

[Rik Sweeney]

How many people seriously watched DVDs on a PS2 instead of a real standalone player?

I did and still do. When I left my parents, I took my PS2 along with the rest of my stuff. Living in rented accomodation with no living room meant I had to watch TV on my 15in portable. I had a games console which conveniently doubled up as a DVD player. 4 years later I still see no reason to get a stand alone player while I still have my PS2 and eventually a PS3.

Beta all over again

[argStyopa]

I'm a definite target-demographic for HD DVD.
I don't watch TV, I watch DVDs instead - probably 20+ movies per month via Netflix. I don't have cable/satellite.

I have a HD tv that I've been dying to see HD output on, and have an income level such that I could buy an HD DVD player without really batting an eye financially.

But you know what? Until it seems to be resolved which HD format is going to finally be THE ONE that the market settles on, I'm not buying any hardware. Furthermore, since I'm not buying hardware, I'm not signing up for the Netflix HD-DVD service so I'm (microscopically) reducing immediate demand for HD DVD.

Congratulations you bunch of selfish, greedy, dumbasses. Your pissing match over 'whose format is better' is no doubt causing hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of otherwise early-adopters like myself to wait to spend our cash on your equipment.

BRILLIANT.

just speculation

[slashdotnickname]

This article has too many "could"s and nothing solid to convince me that either outcome is possible. It's sort of like the early days of beta/vhs. What I'd like to see is an objective study comparing the different formats.

Re:Beta all over again

[Ritz_Just_Ritz]

The physical transport layer confusion is only part of the problem. There's also all the incompatible DRM schemes, the incompatible revs of HDMI implementations, the utter lack of any content, etc. It will likely be several years before you can put your finger on anything resembling a "standard" that is gaining real market traction and you'll probably have to buy all new home theater bits in addition to the player so that you don't get bitten by incompatibility issues.

Blu-Ray Will Win

[Glock27]

Blu-Ray has two big advantages.

First, the PS3 absolutely will drive adoption. PS3 will probably sell 10 million units within two years.

Second, Blu-Ray has already had every major studio but one (Universal I think) commit to releasing content on Blu-Ray. HD-DVD still has three or four studios to convince to support its format.

Besides, Microsoft really likes HD-DVD...what more reason do you need to root for Blu-Ray? ;-)

(As an aside, I thought the fit Microsoft threw when it found out Blu-Ray software was going to be Java was pretty funny...)

Re:yours is an appropriate nick

[TheRaven64]

This time around one of them is not backwards compatible (requiring an extra lens that would make players a lot more expensive).

I keep hearing this repeated, but can find no basis for it in fact.

Both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray use the same wavelength of blue light. Both require a second laser in order to support DVDs. Both do support DVDs. Even if one needed a lot more of a DVD drive built in, considering that DVD drives are about $20 retail these days it would be a tiny cost addition.

The only thing backwards compatible about HD-DVD is the name.

Re:yours is an appropriate nick

[BigMattyC]

I also think the whole thing is moot. By the time any of the big manufacturers come out with their players, Broadcom's single chip solution to HD-DVD and Blu-Ray will have been implemented in decks by any electronics shop not directly involved with a standard. As a recent employee in the digital TV space, I can say unequivocally that dual-standard decks are so far along that there will hardly be a time that you can buy either format as a single-solution deck and not buy a combined-format deck. Not to mention the fact that these types of things typically go to the low-end Chinese ODMs first, so they'll likely be cheap, too. Matt

Re:yours is an appropriate nick

[Pieroxy]

I thought current DVD players already have several lasers... because there is no common wavelength to be able to read : CD, CD-R(W), DVD, DVD-/+R(W)

I may be wrong though. But for sure, the expensive part in a DVD player is certainly not the laser.